From www.spaceweather.com for January 24, 2019
Sunspot 2733 has quadrupled in size during the past 24 hours. Despite the increase, it still has a relatively uncomplicated magnetic field that poses little threat for strong flares.
From NOAA's GOES X-ray flux
We just had a small B flare from AR2733
2019-01-25 01:11:00 UTC
B1.7
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.
We have just had another B flare from growing AR2733, which shows an EISN of 30.
Maximum peak at 2019-01-25 04:11:00 UTC (8 PM PST on Jan. 24, 2019)
B6.9
From www.spaceweather.com
OLD-CYCLE SUNSPOT FACES EARTH: A relic of decaying Solar Cycle 24 may be seen on the solar disk today. Sunspot group AR2733 consists of more than a dozen dark cores scattered across 100,000 km of solar terrain. Its magnetic polarity identifies it as a member of the previous solar cycle--perhaps one of the last big sunspots of Solar Cycle 24. If you have a solar telescope, take a look
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.
EISN Text message from the Royal Observatory in Belgium
2019 01 01 2019.001 13 1.4 18 22
2019 01 02 2019.004 18 2.9 26 31
2019 01 03 2019.007 18 3.3 26 29
2019 01 04 2019.010 14 2.0 24 27
2019 01 05 2019.012 13 2.6 15 20
2019 01 06 2019.015 0 0.0 13 18
2019 01 07 2019.018 0 0.0 19 20
2019 01 08 2019.021 0 0.0 23 24
2019 01 09 2019.023 0 0.0 29 31
2019 01 10 2019.026 0 0.0 16 17
2019 01 11 2019.029 0 0.0 18 18
2019 01 12 2019.032 0 0.0 10 11
2019 01 13 2019.034 0 0.0 15 16
2019 01 14 2019.037 0 0.0 33 34
2019 01 15 2019.040 0 0.0 20 21
2019 01 16 2019.042 0 0.0 17 20
2019 01 17 2019.045 0 0.0 22 22
2019 01 18 2019.048 0 0.0 25 26
2019 01 19 2019.051 0 0.0 26 27
2019 01 20 2019.053 0 0.0 29 29
2019 01 21 2019.056 0 0.0 20 33
2019 01 22 2019.059 17 1.5 21 26
2019 01 23 2019.062 20 1.9 21 25
2019 01 24 2019.064 23 2.8 19 21
2019 01 25 2019.067 25 2.6 13 15
Rapidly increasing AR2733 has been actively B-flaring all day today.
See the GOES X-ray flux: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux
View images of the sun here: http://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.
AR2733 is still increasing in size and in strength. Today alone, it has produced more than five B class solar flares with one C5.0 flare.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/sola ... nt-reports
# Updated every 5 minutes.
Edited Events for 2019 Jan 26
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------7980 0101 0101 0101 LEA G RBR 1415 530
7990 0334 0349 0354 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.5 1.4E-04 2733
8000 + 0636 0647 0651 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.2 1.2E-04 2733
8010 + 0752 0801 0807 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.2 8.9E-05 2733
8020 0810 0813 0817 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.3 3.7E-05 2733
8030 + 1312 1322 1334 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C5.0 3.9E-03 2733
See the current GOES X-ray flux at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.
AR2733 is continuously flaring in the A3 to A8 range as the current NOAA GOES x-ray flux shows lower solar activity than yesterday when it was flaring in the B to C levels.
COMMENT: During last 24 hours NOAA AR 2733 was source of B-class flares,
and an isolated GOES C5.0 flare (peaked at 13:22 UT on January 26). The
NOAA AR 2733 is approaching the West solar limb, but it still has beta
configuration of its photospheric magnetic field and is expected to be the
source of B-class and possibly also isolated C-class flares in the coming
hours.There were no wide Earth directed CMEs reported during last 24 hours. The
solar protons remained at the background level.The solar wind speed continues to decrease and it presently amounts about
430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is 4 nT. Equatorial
coronal hole of negative polarity reached central meridian this morning.
Coronal hole is very patchy, but rather large and possibly connected with
the southern polar coronal hole. The associated fast solar wind might be
expected at the Earth on January 30.The geomagnetic conditions are presently quiet to unsettled and we expect
quiet geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 022, BASED ON 05 STATIONS.
Concerning yesterday's C5.0 flare -- spaceweather.com had this to say:
A SOLAR FLARE DURING SOLAR MINIMUM: Yesterday, Jan. 26th at 13:22 UT, the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2733 exploded, producing the strongest solar flare in nearly a year. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded this extreme ultraviolet movie of the explosion:
[go to http://www.spaceweather.com for the video]
This is a C5-class solar flare. In a matter of minutes, it released about as much energy as a billion WWII atomic bombs. That sounds intense, but... On the sun such explosions are considered to be relatively minor. X-class flares common during Solar Maximum are hundreds of times stronger. Right now, however, the sun is in the pits of a deep Solar Minimum, which makes a C5-class flare temporarily noteworthy.
The explosion did not hurl a CME toward Earth.
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.
AR2733 just exploded with another Solar Class B flare, a B1.1
2019-01-28 01:04:00 UTC (5:04 PM PST).
While this active region appears to be gradually degrading, as it nears the rim of the solar disc, it may let off a few more B and even C flares. Expect change.
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.
New comment from the Royal Observatory at Belgium:
GOES X-ray flux shows a continuing pattern of solar flaring in the A3 to B1 range.
Within two days, AR2733 will depart the visible solar disc.
COMMENT: No C-class flares in past 24 h. Solar activity is expected to
remain at low levels with a possibility of isolated C-class flares from
NOAA AR 2733 (beta magnetic field configuration).No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar
protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours.The solar wind speed is at 390 km/s with interplanetary magnetic fields of
4 nT. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet. The fast solar wind
associated with a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole is expected to
arrive to the Earth late on January 30. Quiet conditions are expected until
then.TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 017, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.
Below is the EISN from Belgium's consortium of international astronomers. Comments in brackets are mine. Whenever there are five or more outliers and/or there is a standard deviation greater than 3.0, then expect Belgium to make changes by the first of the next month.
2019 01 01 2019.001 13 1.4 18 22
2019 01 02 2019.004 18 2.9 26 31 - 5 outliers
2019 01 03 2019.007 18 3.3 26 29 - 3 outliers + Standard Deviation is greater than three.
2019 01 04 2019.010 14 2.0 24 27
2019 01 05 2019.012 13 2.6 15 21 - 6 outliers
2019 01 06 2019.015 0 0.0 14 19 - 5 outliers
2019 01 07 2019.018 0 0.0 20 21
2019 01 08 2019.021 0 0.0 23 24
2019 01 09 2019.023 0 0.0 30 32
2019 01 10 2019.026 0 0.0 17 18
2019 01 11 2019.029 0 0.0 18 18
2019 01 12 2019.032 0 0.0 11 12
2019 01 13 2019.034 0 0.0 16 17
2019 01 14 2019.037 0 0.0 34 35
2019 01 15 2019.040 0 0.0 21 22
2019 01 16 2019.042 0 0.0 18 21
2019 01 17 2019.045 0 0.0 23 23
2019 01 18 2019.048 0 0.0 25 26
2019 01 19 2019.051 0 0.0 27 28
2019 01 20 2019.053 0 0.0 30 30
2019 01 21 2019.056 0 0.0 21 34 - 13 outliers + Belgium's sketch showed an EISN of 11.
2019 01 22 2019.059 17 1.5 21 26 - 5 outliers
2019 01 23 2019.062 20 1.9 21 25
2019 01 24 2019.064 23 2.9 23 25
2019 01 25 2019.067 27 3.8 19 21 - 2 outliers + Standard deviation is greater than three.
2019 01 26 2019.070 28 2.5 14 18
2019 01 27 2019.073 24 2.3 12 15
2019 01 28 2019.075 18 1.9 26 30
The approximated mean EISN for January most likely will fall between 8.5 to 9.4. If so, Belgium's favored CM (Combined Method) prediction below shows that we might be coming out of this solar minimum quickly. However, this rise in international sunspot numbers (ISN) could be a temporary aberration with lower future ISN's, which would indicate a deepening solar minimum as the Standard Curve (SC) prediction shows below (see red dotted curve). We are at a crossroads.
Notice the years in which scientists were faked out by a rise and then sudden decrease in sunspot numbers: 1808, 1822, 1877, 1887, 1900, 1963, and 1975. Our current solar cycle could resemble that of 1800 to 1815, which was part of the Dalton Solar Minimum, with very cold winters.
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.