That active region was indeed ephemeral and has rapidly decayed. In addition, AR2732 is now disappearing from sight.
As a result, currently, the sun has no sunspots. Will the next 26 days be spotless or will another active region suddenly manifest?
Stay tuned.
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.
Notice the weird patterns of solar colors as if it were patched together by computer techs.
Thus far in January 2019, we have had two days of spotlessness as the solar minimum deepens.
It is cold.
Here is a wondrous Nativity aurora: from http://www.spaceweather.com
This type of aurora is called "Hem of His Garment" - relating to the Christ Child.
THE NITROGEN FRINGE: Over the weekend, a high-speed stream of solar wind buffeted Earth's magnetic field, sparking big green auroras around the Arctic Circle. Last night in Utsjoki, Finland, Tiina Salonen of Aurora Holidays noticed something extra--a fringe of pink:
May you have a wondrous and holy Nativity.
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.
From January 6 through January 20, we have had 15 days of a spotless sun.
Today, January 21, Belgium presented an illustration which apparently showed 11 sunspots.
And later in the day, an active region rapidly developed in the northeastern latitude of the sun.
At spaceweather.com ( http://www.spaceweather.com/ ), this emerging sunspot is encircled.
Click to view the latest dynamic HMI image. The new active region is shown in green(+)/yellow(-) polarity with orange sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIBC.jpg
In addition, the GOES X-ray flux plot showed increased solar flaring in the A1 through A3 levels.
You can see the plot here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux
Here is the raw text data from Belgium's consortium of international astronomers:
Significant differences (5+ outliers) are noted in italics. This is the difference between reports presented and those accepted.
2019 01 01 2019.001 13 1.4 18 22
2019 01 02 2019.004 18 2.9 26 31 - 5 outliers
2019 01 03 2019.007 18 3.3 26 29
2019 01 04 2019.010 14 2.0 24 27
2019 01 05 2019.012 13 2.6 15 20 - 5 outliers
2019 01 06 2019.015 0 0.0 13 18 - 5 outliers
2019 01 07 2019.018 0 0.0 19 20
2019 01 08 2019.021 0 0.0 23 24
2019 01 09 2019.023 0 0.0 29 31
2019 01 10 2019.026 0 0.0 16 17
2019 01 11 2019.029 0 0.0 18 18
2019 01 12 2019.032 0 0.0 10 11
2019 01 13 2019.034 0 0.0 15 16
2019 01 14 2019.037 0 0.0 33 34
2019 01 15 2019.040 0 0.0 20 21
2019 01 16 2019.042 0 0.0 15 18
2019 01 17 2019.045 0 0.0 22 22
2019 01 18 2019.048 0 0.0 22 23
2019 01 19 2019.051 0 0.0 23 24
2019 01 20 2019.053 0 0.0 27 27
2019 01 21 2019.056 0 0.0 17 29 12 outliers
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.
Today's Text msg from the Royal Observatory of Belgium:
http://www.sidc.be/silso/home
Information in italics is my emphasis.
Look at January 2, 2019: 31 reports submitted - 26 reports accepted = 5 outliers (not accepted).
Since the standard deviation is 2.9, the range of sunspots observed is estimated from 15 to 21.
January 21, 2019 has a very high standard deviation. It is highly likely that the EISN for Jan. 21 will be 11
as Belgium's drawing indicated.
2019 01 01 2019.001 13 1.4 18 22
2019 01 02 2019.004 18 2.9 26 31 - 5 outliers
2019 01 03 2019.007 18 3.3 26 29
2019 01 04 2019.010 14 2.0 24 27
2019 01 05 2019.012 13 2.6 15 20 - 5 outliers
2019 01 06 2019.015 0 0.0 13 18 - 5 outliers
2019 01 07 2019.018 0 0.0 19 20
2019 01 08 2019.021 0 0.0 23 24
2019 01 09 2019.023 0 0.0 29 31
2019 01 10 2019.026 0 0.0 16 17
2019 01 11 2019.029 0 0.0 18 18
2019 01 12 2019.032 0 0.0 10 11
2019 01 13 2019.034 0 0.0 15 16
2019 01 14 2019.037 0 0.0 33 34
2019 01 15 2019.040 0 0.0 20 21
2019 01 16 2019.042 0 0.0 16 19
2019 01 17 2019.045 0 0.0 22 22
2019 01 18 2019.048 0 0.0 23 24
2019 01 19 2019.051 0 0.0 25 26
2019 01 20 2019.053 0 0.0 29 29
2019 01 21 2019.056 0 0.0 19 31 - 12 outliers or 12/31 reports not accepted
2019 01 22 2019.059 17 1.4 16 20
Notice that we have a rapidly developing active region (AR2733) showing polarity from the old solar cycle 24.
See this HMI solar image with a bright green and yellow AR2733 (with red sunspots) approaching the center of the disc.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIBC.jpg
The GOES X-ray flux is showing increased solar flaring activities in the A1 to A5 range.
Please visit: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.
New Active Region 2733 is actively developing. Since AR2733 still has the old polarity of Solar Cycle 24, it is too early to announce that we are coming out of this solar minimum. Instead, we could bounce up with higher International Sunspot Numbers only to drop again and delay the onset of the solar minimum as has happened in prior cycles. See the chart below from Belgium. Notice the years in which scientists were faked out by a rise and then sudden decrease in sunspot numbers: 1808, 1822, 1877, 1887, 1900, 1963, and 1975. Our current solar cycle could resemble that of 1800 to 1815, which was part of the Dalton Solar Minimum, with very cold winters.
Currently AR2733 has an unusual O ring of sunspots.
Go and see this solar blemish located on the left hand side.
Since this link is dynamic and changes every 15 minutes, I cannot link it directly.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg
Here is the latest EISN plot from the Royal Observatory in Belgium
Comments in italics are my emphasis.
2019 01 01 2019.001 13 1.4 18 22
2019 01 02 2019.004 18 2.9 26 31 - (5 outliers)
2019 01 03 2019.007 18 3.3 26 29
2019 01 04 2019.010 14 2.0 24 27
2019 01 05 2019.012 13 2.6 15 20 - (5 outliers)
2019 01 06 2019.015 0 0.0 13 18 - (5 outliers)
2019 01 07 2019.018 0 0.0 19 20
2019 01 08 2019.021 0 0.0 23 24
2019 01 09 2019.023 0 0.0 29 31
2019 01 10 2019.026 0 0.0 16 17
2019 01 11 2019.029 0 0.0 18 18
2019 01 12 2019.032 0 0.0 10 11
2019 01 13 2019.034 0 0.0 15 16
2019 01 14 2019.037 0 0.0 33 34
2019 01 15 2019.040 0 0.0 20 21
2019 01 16 2019.042 0 0.0 16 19
2019 01 17 2019.045 0 0.0 22 22
2019 01 18 2019.048 0 0.0 23 24
2019 01 19 2019.051 0 0.0 25 26
2019 01 20 2019.053 0 0.0 29 29
2019 01 21 2019.056 0 0.0 19 31 - (11 EISN accd. to Belgium - notice 12 outliers)
2019 01 22 2019.059 17 1.3 18 23 - (5 outliers)
2019 01 23 2019.062 20 1.9 15 18
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.
AR2733 continues to develop as the sun revolves. Currently, the EISN stands at 25 for January 24, 2019. The mean EISN is now six.
Meanwhile, a new active region seems to be developing.
Both areas have the polarity of old solar cycle 24 as seen at
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIBC.jpg
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.
There is now only one active region, AR2733, per the daily comment by the Royal Observatory in Belgium.
The EISN printed below for today, January 24, has been reduced from 25 to 22, so AR2733 might be gradually decaying.
2019 01 01 2019.001 13 1.4 18 22
2019 01 02 2019.004 18 2.9 26 31
2019 01 03 2019.007 18 3.3 26 29
2019 01 04 2019.010 14 2.0 24 27
2019 01 05 2019.012 13 2.6 15 20
2019 01 06 2019.015 0 0.0 13 18
2019 01 07 2019.018 0 0.0 19 20
2019 01 08 2019.021 0 0.0 23 24
2019 01 09 2019.023 0 0.0 29 31
2019 01 10 2019.026 0 0.0 16 17
2019 01 11 2019.029 0 0.0 18 18
2019 01 12 2019.032 0 0.0 10 11
2019 01 13 2019.034 0 0.0 15 16
2019 01 14 2019.037 0 0.0 33 34
2019 01 15 2019.040 0 0.0 20 21
2019 01 16 2019.042 0 0.0 17 20
2019 01 17 2019.045 0 0.0 22 22
2019 01 18 2019.048 0 0.0 24 25
2019 01 19 2019.051 0 0.0 26 27
2019 01 20 2019.053 0 0.0 29 29
2019 01 21 2019.056 0 0.0 19 31
2019 01 22 2019.059 17 1.5 20 25
2019 01 23 2019.062 20 2.0 20 24
2019 01 24 2019.064 22 2.2 15 18
COMMENT: There is presently only one sunspot group observed on the visible
side of the Sun. NOAA AR 2733 still has beta configuration of its
photospheric magnetic field and is occasionally producing low B-class
flares. We expect low solar flaring activity to persist in the coming
hours, with the low probability for an isolated C-class flare.
There were no Earth directed CMEs reported during last 24 hours and the
solar protons remained at the background level.The Earth is presently inside the fast solar wind (originating from the
equatorial coronal hole which reached central meridian in the morning of
January 19) with the speed of about 600 km/s and the interplanetary
magnetic field magnitude of 8 nT. Several intervals of longer negative
value of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field and the fast
solar wind induced disturbed geomagnetic conditions. Around the midnight
and early morning of January 24 local station at Dourbes and NOAA reported
K=4 and Kp=4, respectively.As the solar wind speed is rather high, although the interplanetary
magnetic field magnitude already significantly decreased, we still might
expect unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 022, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.
