As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

[Maria]

As of 4:05 PM PDT, here is the latest EISN data from Belgium's Royal Observatory associated international astronomers.

Average mean EISN for May is approximately 14.

Date . . . . . . . . . . EISN std st str
2018 05 01 2018.330 00 0.0 43 45
2018 05 02 2018.333 00 0.0 37 40
2018 05 03 2018.336 00 0.0 44 47
2018 05 04 2018.338 13 2.7 32 48
2018 05 05 2018.341 15 1.9 41 46
2018 05 06 2018.344 16 2.3 42 49
2018 05 07 2018.347 16 2.2 48 55
2018 05 08 2018.349 20 5.7 39 52
2018 05 09 2018.352 22 4.4 42 49
2018 05 10 2018.355 12 2.3 42 49
2018 05 11 2018.358 12 2.0 42 49
2018 05 12 2018.360 13 2.4 34 38
2018 05 13 2018.363 12 1.9 23 32
2018 05 14 2018.366 00 0.0 39 42
2018 05 15 2018.368 00 0.0 34 45
2018 05 16 2018.371 00 0.0 36 37
2018 05 17 2018.374 00 0.0 42 43
2018 05 18 2018.377 00 0.0 40 41
2018 05 19 2018.379 00 0.0 32 36
2018 05 20 2018.382 00 0.0 40 43
2018 05 21 2018.385 12 2.0 36 47
2018 05 22 2018.388 13 1.8 40 49
2018 05 23 2018.390 26 4.5 32 41
2018 05 24 2018.393 35 6.6 33 42
2018 05 25 2018.396 32 5.5 35 41
2018 05 26 2018.399 28 3.3 39 47
2018 05 27 2018.401 26 7.4 35 41
2018 05 28 2018.404 20 2.8 39 45
2018 05 29 2018.407 25 2.9 33 39
2018 05 30 2018.410 22 4.3 43 48
2018 05 31 2018.412 22 2.2 33 39

[Maria]

Update from NOAA: AR2712 has been teasing us, appearing to decay only to come to life again ... Not only has AR2712 increased in area, but also it is now a Beta-Gamma, and as it travels across the sun, and approaches the Western Limb, it may unleash a geo-directed solar flare. Beware. Our shield is down during this solar minimum.

In addition to the threat of AR2712, we are having increased solar winds which are predicted to hit the earth on June 1.+

:Issued: 2018 Jun 01 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 152 Issued at 0030Z on 01 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 31 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 31/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2712 N16W23 177 0050 Dro 08 11 Beta-Gamma
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 31/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
2710 N17W73 227
II. Regions Due to Return 01 Jun to 03 Jun
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

[Maria]

Ah! Time to compare and see the EISN for May 2018.

Below is the EISN Plot taken at the end of the month in May 2018 with an estimated average mean EISN of ₁₄.

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 05-31-2018_EISNcurrent.png (44.9 KiB) Viewed 986 times

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 06-01-2018_EISNcurrent.png (40 KiB) Viewed 986 times

And immediately above is the EISN Plot (edited by Belgium's Royal Observatory) for May and June 2018, with an average mean EISN that is above 14. Note that next month could see a decline in the EISN as we approach a deep solar minimum.
Again, note that all of these recent active areas have been from the Northern Hemisphere of the sun, but as we transit from a solar minimum to a new solar maximum, most of the active regions will come from the Southern Hemisphere of the sun, so we still have a long way to go before the next peak of solar activity.

[Maria]

New update from http://www.spaceweather.com

Sunspot AR2712 has developed a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares.

Notice the image below showing the flaring AR2712. Something approaches from the Northeastern Limb of the sun. Next, look at the equatorial coronal hole from which solar winds have reached the Earth. This coronal hole looks like a roadrunner.

solar image_06-01-2018_Beta-Gamma AR2712 with coronal hole.jpg (12.99 KiB) Viewed 986 times

Below is the GOES X-ray three day plot (updated every five minutes, so disregard the label at the top). AR2712 is becoming more active now that it is reaching the geo-directive Western Limb of the sun. Therefore, we could be due for a rare surprise with an M or X flare or two, which happened in September 2017. Note also that earth's protective shield is down during this time of a solar minimum.

06-01-2018_Beta-Gamma AR2712 flaring at B levels_goes-xray-flux.gif (13.15 KiB) Viewed 986 times

[Maria]

Here is the latest NOAA report showing that AR2712 is still growing in size (Area was 50, now is 60) and strength (Mag. was 11, but is now 12). The new active region is now in view, but NOAA did not mention it. Will it fade away like many new active regions during this solar minimum, or will it increase in size and magnetism as is AR2712?

:Issued: 2018 Jun 02 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 153 Issued at 0030Z on 02 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 01 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 01/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2712 N16W36 177 0060 Dro 07 12 Beta-Gamma
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 01/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
2710 N17W87 228
II. Regions Due to Return 02 Jun to 04 Jun
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

[Maria]

Just in from NOAA: AR2712 has now declined in area from 50 to 30, and in magnetism from a Beta-Gamma to a Beta. In a day or so, it will depart this side of the sun. In doing so, will it return in 12 to 14 days? That is unlikely during a solar minimum.

:Issued: 2018 Jun 03 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 154 Issued at 0030Z on 03 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 02 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 02/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2712 N15W48 176 0030 Cro 09 10 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 02/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 03 Jun to 05 Jun
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

[Maria]

AR1712 has come back to life.

Look at this GOES X-ray flux showing an impulsive B7.9 flare

06-03-2018_AR2712_B7.9_ 0756 UT_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (10.46 KiB) Viewed 975 times

Then look at this picture of the sun with AR2712 actively flaring. Could it have unleashed a CME?

solar image_AR2712_B7.9_latest_1024_0171.jpg (153.75 KiB) Viewed 975 times