As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

[Maria]

This in from Belgium's Royal Observatory:

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low with X ray flux remaining below B
level.
Catania sunspot group 79 was shortlived while Catania sunspot group 80 was
numbered NOAA 2708 (Beta; McIntosh Cro). Another region is rotating on the
disk in the Northern hemisphere.
The chance for any C class flares remains very low.

No Earth directed CMEs have been detected in coronagraph data.

The solar proton flux levels are at background values and are expected to
remain so.

A shock was observed in the solar wind at 9:27UT with solar wind speed
jumping from 340 to 370 km/s and total magnetic field from under 4nT to
close to 7nT. Afterwards a further increase to a peak of near 12.5nT was
observed. Bz became more volatile with a peak down to -9.5 nT. The shock is
probably related to the upcoming interaction region and high speed stream
from a negative polarity coronal hole although the magnetic field phi angle
currently still indicates connection to a positive sector.
Magnetic field is expected to remain elevated and perturbed and probably
rising further. This will be followed by a further increase of the solar
wind speed as the high speed stream sets in.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (local K Dourbes 1-2 and NOAA Kp 0-1).
Geomagnetic conditions are likely to increase to active and minor
geomagnetic storm levels with the passage of a sector boundary crossing and
co-rotating interaction region in the next 24 hours. They will remain
elevated as the high speed stream continues.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 014, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.

[Maria]

Beta AR2708 persists but is smaller in area. Below is a solar image. The dark area that is close to the center of the sun is a huge coronal hole from which solar winds can proceed.

solar image_05-07-2018_AR2708 persists.jpg (134.63 KiB) Viewed 1111 times

:Issued: 2018 May 06 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 126 Issued at 0030Z on 06 May 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 05 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 05/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2708 S08E39 099 0010 Bxo 05 04 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 05/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 06 May to 08 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

[Maria]

Here is Belgium's comment from this morning.
AR2708 has been inactive per the NOAA GOES-X-ray Flux.

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low with X ray flux remaining below B
level.
There is one inactive and stable spotted region (Catania group 80, NOAA
region 2708) on the disk.
The chance for any C class flares remains very low.

No Earth directed CMEs have been detected in coronagraph data.

The solar proton flux levels are at background values and are expected to
remain so.

Soon after the start of the reporting period total magnetic field rose
further to a peak of 17nT, with also the expected change into the negative
sector around 13:30 UT. The Bz component was variable, reaching peaks down
to -14nT. The magnetic field remained enhanced till around 1:30UT when it
recovered to nominal 5-6nT values. Solar wind speed increased steadily over
the period, reaching to over 650km/s after midnight and remaining over 600
km/s since then.
The high speed stream is expected to persist over the next 48 hours.

Geomagnetic activity has reached moderate storm levels with an episode of
NOAA Kp 6, although local K Dourbes did not reach above K=5, minor storm
level.
As total magnetic field in the solar wind has meanwhile declined to around
5-6nT, the peak of the geomagnetic activity should be passed. But active
geomagnetic conditions are still to be expected as long as the high speed
stream continues.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 015, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.

Below is the GOES X-ray Flux showing a typical solar minimum flux with no B or C flaring.

05-07-2018_Beta AR2708 is inactive with no B or C flaring_goes-xray-flux.gif (12.51 KiB) Viewed 1110 times

[Maria]

solar image_05-07-2018_AR2708 plus emerging new active region.jpg (153.15 KiB) Viewed 1107 times

AR2708 might be joined by another active region per the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Check out The Sun Today for the latest pictures of the solar disc at http://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels. Active region NOAA 2708 is
currently the only sunspot group visible on the solar disk. The source
region of the 3 May CME (farside) is about to rotate over the east limb. No
earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal
levels.

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a slight chance
on a C-class flare.

Earth is under the influence of the high speed stream (HSS) from an
elongated negative polarity equatorial coronal hole (CH). Solar wind speed
mostly undulated between 610 and 710 km/s (DSCOVR). Bz varied between -6
and +6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was mostly directed towards
the Sun, with some "away" excursions from 07UT onwards. Mostly unsettled to
active geomagnetic conditions were observed, with an isolated minor
storming episode in the Kp index during the 21-24UT interval.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a chance on an
isolated minor storming episode.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 015, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.

[Maria]

Beta AR2708 has persisted longer than most active areas. However, pictures from http://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/ show that this Beta region is finally starting to decay, and that a new active region has now appeared on the Western Limb.

Here is the latest NOAA report:

:Issued: 2018 May 08 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 128 Issued at 0030Z on 08 May 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 07 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 07/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2708 S11E12 100 0010 Bxo 04 04 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 07/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 08 May to 10 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

[Maria]

NOAA has given a number to the newest active region, Alpha AR2709:
Both active regions have now decayed to alphas, are very small, and have no active B or C flaring.

:Issued: 2018 May 10 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 130 Issued at 0030Z on 10 May 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 09 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 09/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2708 S10W13 098 0010 Axx 02 01 Alpha
2709 N05E52 033 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 09/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 10 May to 12 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

[Maria]

Alpha AR2709, which remains small and inactive, may soon decay to an H-alpha plage as has AR2708.

According to NOAA,

:Issued: 2018 May 11 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 131 Issued at 0030Z on 11 May 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 10 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 10/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2709 N05E38 034 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 10/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
2708 S10W27 099
II. Regions Due to Return 11 May to 13 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
None