As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

[Maria]

Over three days, one sunspot departs (AR2659), while another makes a grand entrance (AR2661?).

05-31-2017_Multiple B and C flaring for 3 days_goes-xray-flux.gif (13.18 KiB) Viewed 2259 times

Notice the lovely baseline curve. NOAA has predicted a five percent chance of an M flare.

The new active region is on the left limb of the sun appears to be much larger than the departing one on the right (AR2659), which is no longer visible. The bright area in the center of the sun is a plage, not a recognized sunspot area.

solar image_05-31-2017_2341 UT.jpg (158.77 KiB) Viewed 2259 times

[Luke]

Next year NASA plans on launching a probe that will arrive at the sun in seven years and orbit as close as the sun's atmosphere.

[Maria]

Yikes.

[Maria]

Below are the last compiled reports for the Estimated Sunspot Reports for May 2017, dated May 31, 2017.

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 05-31-2017_EISNcurrent.png (50.63 KiB) Viewed 2252 times

And below is the final report for May 2017 dated June 1, 2017 with noticeably less sunspots as I fully expected.

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 06-01-2017_EISNcurrent.png (44 KiB) Viewed 2252 times

For the month of May 2017, there were no drastic changes in the plot, except as expected on reported spotless days where the standard deviation was extremely high due to early reports from the Near East (China, Thailand, India, etc.) that skewed the results because the solar surface was observed to be in tremendous flux with rapid developing and/or decaying sunspots. Within 24 hours, the sun can change dramatically. Thus, plages can exponentially expand into sunspot areas, and conversely sunspot areas can rapidly decay into plages. This was seen in AR2660 and a few other areas, which were not even numbered as they were so ephemeral in nature. Such is the nature of our unpredictable sun.

For example, from SILSO data on May 11, there were 12 out of 45 reports that were eliminated due to computerized algorithm determinations, so on June 1, the final numbers were changed from "0" to "11." Then on the following day, May 12, those EISN numbers had changed throughout the month, with sunspot numbers varying from "0" to "7." With extremely high standard deviations listed between 4.7 to 5.1, (5.1 +7 = 12.1) a final determination of "14" was a little on the high side, but not unexpected.

2017 05 11 2017.358 0 0.0 33 45 00.0 12 sr’s eliminated; Sunspot AR2655 persists; AR2657 returns
2017 05 12 2017.360 7 5.1 28 34) 12.1 6 sr’s eliminated; (originally listed as ‘0’); but changed to "7" on 5-15-2017
2017 05 12 2017.360 0 4.7 28 36) 4.7 8 sr’s eliminated; as of 5-24-2017
2017 05 12 2017.360 7 5.0 32 39) 12.0 7 sr’s eliminated; as of 5/31/2017 1825 UT
2017 05 12 2017.360 0 4.9 33 40) 4.9 7 sr’s eliminated; as of 5/31/2017 2025 UT

Based on this newly adjusted plot for May 2017, the mean sunspot number will be around 19.

[Maria]

Here is a recent photo posted at The Sun Today at http://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/
showing the new sunspot Beta category AR2661 on the limb of the solar disk and the persistent plage located slightly off center.
According to NOAA and Belgium, AR2661 is potentially capable of delivering a M-class solar flare.

Will the persistent plage eventually develop into another sunspot area? Stay tuned to As the Sun Turns.

[Maria]

solar image_06-05-2017_1842 UT.jpg (159.41 KiB) Viewed 2219 times

The persistent plages on the far right limb of the sun have finally erupted and have made their presence known before they depart. Their last recorded locations are N20W77 and N16W80, which had an impressive C1.2 at 0955 UT (2:55 AM PDT).

# Edited Events for 2017 Jun 05
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6560 + 0514 0531 0541 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C2.7 2.4E-03 2661
6560 0520 0530 0549 SVI 3 FLA N06E30 SF ERU 2661

6570 0545 0545 0547 LEA 3 FLA N05E31 SF ERU 2661

6580 + 0640 0717 0747 SVI 3 FLA N16W74 SF ERU
6580 + 0702 0715 0727 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B8.1 8.6E-04

6590 + 0753 0759 0805 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B5.9 3.1E-04
6590 + 0754 0758 0818 SVI 3 FLA N16W74 SF ERU

6600 + 0826 0834 0836 SVI 3 FLA N16W74 SF ERU

6610 + 0837 0840 0903 SVI 3 FLA N16W74 SF ERU

6620 + 0904 0907 0909 SVI 3 FLA N16W74 SF ERU

6630 0911 0912 0915 SVI 3 FLA N16W75 SF ERU

6640 0916 1048 1109 SVI 3 FLA N16W75 SF ERU
6640 + 0936 0955 1005 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C1.2 1.1E-03

6650 1118 1137 1145 SVI 3 FLA N16W75 SF ERU
6650 + 1132 1137 1141 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.6 1.3E-04

6660 1149 1149 1149 SVI 3 FLA N16W75 SF ERU

6670 1221 1223 1224 SVI 3 FLA N16W80 SF ERU

6680 1225 1225 1227 SVI 3 FLA N16W80 SF ERU

6690 1234 1234 1242 SVI 3 FLA N16W80 SF ERU

6700 + 1246 1255 1306 SVI 3 FLA N16W80 SF ERU
6700 + 1252 1255 1300 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.3 9.6E-05

6710 + 1426 1426 1433 HOL 3 FLA N20W77 SF
6710 + 1433 1437 1442 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.6 6.5E-05

6720 + 1600 1610 1615 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B5.8 3.5E-04 2661
6720 + 1603 1608 1617 HOL 4 FLA N06E18 SF ERU 2661

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar ... nt-reports

[Maria]

Here is a new website my husband discovered.

Watts Up With That
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/06/06/ ... ven-lower/

Solar Update June 2017–the sun is slumping and headed even lower -- This has been my assumption all along as the decline in monthly sunspots has been much steeper than in previous years.