Russian Civil War?

[Rumpelstiltskin]

Thought I'd make a topic for it to discuss. I think it's possible since in Russia there would seem to be three main "factions" if things did collapse in the future. Obviously pro-western propaganda/media over dramatizes what we are seeing today, but of course that doesn't mean there isn't any truth to it. In the event that something like that would happen, I think it's highly probable that Russia would mainly break into three warring factions. A pro Soviet/Putin group, a pro-democracy group, and a pro-monarchist/tsarist group. Or if it does get that bad China would just step in before things get too serious. Thought it might be an interesting discussion as the war in eastern Europe continues.

[Barbara]

I don't think such a dramatic situation will occur.
But how strong is the Tsarist-Monarchist faction today there, if you have any idea ??

[ByzantophileTheodore]

It’s impossible to say what will happen in Russia, but it is an interesting subject. The royalist political movement has gained ground in Russia from what I can see, but they are not in a position yet to influence local policy - let alone national policy. Many statues of Lenin and other Bolsheviks litter Russian cities and towns, and the royalists are campaigning against these monuments of Bolshevism.

The Soviet baby boomers were probably the largest supporters of USSR nostalgia, and they are becoming less of a force in Russian politics. However, the Kremlin has made a big effort to bring “patriotic education” (neo-Soviet propaganda) to Russia’s youth. Only time will tell if Russia can emerge from the catastrophic legacy of the USSR.

If Russian forces break through Ukraine - which is probably more likely than Russia capitulating - occupied Ukraine would probably remain unstable. It would add to Russia’s internal instability (it already has). I doubt that it will result in a Second Russian Civil War, but it’s impossible to say what will be the political fallout from this debacle. I think that the Wagner coup was real, and it looks like a chaotic mess over there right now. The war has claimed countless lives and displaced millions. Both sides appear to have committed atrocities. There is still no end in sight.

May Almighty God bestow His blessings on the much-suffering peoples of Russia, Ukraine, and the whole world.

[SavaBeljovic]

It’s impossible to say what will happen in Russia, but it is an interesting subject. The royalist political movement has gained ground in Russia from what I can see, but they are not in a position yet to influence local policy - let alone national policy. Many statues of Lenin and other Bolsheviks litter Russian cities and towns, and the royalists are campaigning against these monuments of Bolshevism.

The Soviet baby boomers were probably the largest supporters of USSR nostalgia, and they are becoming less of a force in Russian politics. However, the Kremlin has made a big effort to bring “patriotic education” (neo-Soviet propaganda) to Russia’s youth. Only time will tell if Russia can emerge from the catastrophic legacy of the USSR.

If Russian forces break through Ukraine - which is probably more likely than Russia capitulating - occupied Ukraine would probably remain unstable. It would add to Russia’s internal instability (it already has). I doubt that it will result in a Second Russian Civil War, but it’s impossible to say what will be the political fallout from this debacle. I think that the Wagner coup was real, and it looks like a chaotic mess over there right now. The war has claimed countless lives and displaced millions. Both sides appear to have committed atrocities. There is still no end in sight.

May Almighty God bestow His blessings on the much-suffering peoples of Russia, Ukraine, and the whole world.

Russian youth are very unfortunately similar to American youths in many ways... Very worldly and not actually very smart. There's videos (like the ones we see coming out of America) where they'll ask Russian "gen Z"ers (not like that type of Z!) about history and they will struggle to name figures even someone in America/Britain might be able to name if they took a history class in high school.

Putin and his policies aren't very popular except among those 30 and above, but those under the age of 30, liberalism is very popular seemingly... A lot of people want Russia to turn into a Western style democracy, almost like what Boris Yeltsin or Garri Kasparov want. Even a lot of people who support the fratricide in Ukraine don't support it for the same reasons the government does.

As for the people of Ukraine... I doubt we'll see any revival of Orthodoxy come out of there for a long time. I was in the UAOC prior to coming to True Orthodoxy, and many people used to tell me Ukraine was worse than Russia in some ways. Belarus is also run by a Communist just like Russia.

Vladyka Andronik told me there are two types of repentance, human repentance where we go on our own volition to God and repent, and divine repentance, where God, His Angels, the Theotokos, the Saints etc. have to come to us and tell us we need to repent. Unfortunately at this point I think only the latter may drive Russia back to Orthodoxy, short of a series of miracles happening that somehow leads to an Orthodox Tsar coming in.

[Rumpelstiltskin]

300 Ukraine troops attack in Russian Kursk region today, lol. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/08/6/7469205/

[Barbara]

What are Ukrainian frces doing that far north ? What happened with this ? I don't see any news.

[ByzantophileTheodore]

What are Ukrainian frces doing that far north ? What happened with this ? I don't see any news.

There are many potential reasons. It could be a spoiling attack designed to mess with Russian offensive preparations as fall approaches. This is a common tactic to keep the enemy off balance. As the saying goes, “the best defense is a good offense”. It could also be something spontaneous and uncoordinated. We can only speculate.

Both the Ukrainians and Russians have fought a long and hard war here.