As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

[Maria]

The sun wants to maximize its minimum. :mrgreen:

Yes indeed, by maximizing the solar winds leaving coronal holes, and through faculae (white sunspots) during a solar minimum, we still experience intense solar rays even during a solar minimum. And then there are hyderflares, solar filaments which can break and then erupt into a violent CME with a very long duration M flare, even a possible X class solar flare during a solar minimum. The sun is full of surprises and sudden releases of energy.

[Maria]

From The Sun Today, there is an active region in the Southern Hemisphere of the sun that is rapidly developing. Last night it was small. Today, it appears to be developing into a Beta with several visible sunspots. Check out the HMI continuum flattened image. Click it twice to enlarge this solar image. It shows the active region in the SE.

cf. http://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/

Currently, Belgium's Royal Observatory consortium of international astronomers has reported a number of 12 for the Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) with a standard deviation of 1.6. Twenty-one (21) station reports have been accepted out of the 26 submitted, so there are currently five outliers.

2018 08 14 2018.618 12 1.6 21 26

Notice that the last few active regions have been from the South. As the Solar Minimum continues and then changes into the peak years of Solar Cycle 25 (Solar Maximum), we will see more active regions coming from the Southern Hemisphere. However, currently, we are in a deep solar minimum with few active regions.

UPDATE at 4:07 PM PDT (2307 UT) - The EISN is now 13, but it has not grown since I last observed it earlier today.
An A9 solar flare was recorded sometime after 1200 UT today. cf: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

[Maria]

Yes, the newly numbered active region, AR2718, is now a Beta, but chances are that it will not be around long as the GOES X-ray flux now shows a slightly lower solar activity than it did a few hours ago. cf: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

This in from NOAA:

Issued: 2018 Aug 15 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 227 Issued at 0030Z on 15 Aug 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 14 Aug
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 14/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2718 S08E49 192 0010 Bxo 03 02 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 14/2400Z Aug
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 15 Aug to 17 Aug
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

[Maria]

From Belgium's Royal Observatory: EISN is 13.

COMMENT: The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours. A
sunspot (NOAA 2718) as emerged yesterday with a beta magnetic
configuration, no significant flare has been recorded. Quiet flaring
conditions are expected for the next 24-hour period with a small chances of
C-class flare from the sunspot NOAA-2718.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection has been observed. The solar
protons flux remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is
expected to remain so.

The solar wind measurements started to be enhanced on July 15 around 01:00
UT indicating the onset of a Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) associated
with the arrival of solar wind from the Coronal Hole (which has crossed the
central meridian on July 11). The wind speed increased from the nominal
values (around 315-340 km/s) to the current values ranging from 450 km/s.
The interplanetary magnetic field strength currently reached 10 nT and is
expected to increase further. The Southward magnetic component was
fluctuating between -9 and 7 nT. The enhanced solar wind conditions are
expected to persist with an increase of the solar wind speed and magnetic
field strength.

Due to the enhanced solar wind conditions, the geomagnetic conditions
became unsettled (K-Dourbes and Kp equal 3). Unsettled to active conditions
are expected until while the Earth remains under the influence of the solar
wind associated to the coronal hole. Minor storm is not likely; however, it
cannot be excluded especially if the southward magnetic component remains
negative for longue periods.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 013, BASED ON 13 STATIONS.

[Maria]

Beta AR2718 continues, but it has not increased in size or in strength. No doubt, it will decay soon. Check the images on The Sun Today at http://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/

Earlier, the GOES X-ray flux showed some increased activity for several hours, but has flatlined once again.
cf. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

From NOAA:

Issued: 2018 Aug 16 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 228 Issued at 0030Z on 16 Aug 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 15 Aug
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 15/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2718 S07E36 192 0010 Cro 03 02 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 15/2400Z Aug
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 16 Aug to 18 Aug
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

[Maria]

AR2718 persists as a very small beta, but it seems to be decaying now.

The EISN for the past three days has been 12 to 13, so the average mean to date for August is slightly less than 4. If there are no more active regions generated during August, then the average EISN monthly mean for August would be approximately 2, which is higher than July 2018's ISN of 1.6.
cf: http://www.sidc.be/sunspots/bulletins/m ... 201807.pdf

Will the months of September, October, and November be closer to zero? Stay tuned. If more relatively inactive sunspot regions come from the Northern Hemisphere, and if the average smoothed monthly mean continues to be below five, then this will be an indication that this current solar minimum will persist for perhaps several more years. On the other hand, if more persistent and actively flaring regions start to appear in the Southern Hemisphere, and if the average smoothed monthly mean starts to increase and is more than ten, then this will mean that we could be approaching the peak of a new solar maximum faster than expected. It is too early to tell.

However, for this current solar minimum (Cycle 25), the tally of spotless days according to spaceweather.com is 269, which already exceeds the shortest solar minimum predicted by Belgium at 233 spotless days in the chart shown below. By October 4, 2018, this chart will be updated as the charts in this analysis are updated every three months. Again, it is still too early to tell. If this current solar minimum continues, we could be in for a much longer solar minimum of 600 to 1200 spotless days, or even longer following the light blue line.

According to the Royal Observatory at Belgium, the predicted short solar minimum is 362 days plus or minus a standard deviation of 134. This would give 362 - 134 = 228 days, which has already been exceeded as July 2018's figure was 235 according to Belgium, or 362 + 134 = 496 days. It will take at least nine more months of spotless days to reach the figure of 496. Thus, the earliest we will know will be summer 2019, twelve months from now.

A more conservative and longer solar minimum would consist of 800 days plus or minus a standard deviation of 224.
This would give 800 - 224 = 576 days, or 800 + 224 = 1024 days. Thus, only after one to two more years of spotless months, by the summer of 2019 to the summer of 2020, will we be able to see if this solar minimum will be shorter or longer than predicted by Belgium. Nevertheless, we could be in for a surprise as a Maunder or Dalton Minimum could bring on ten to twenty to one hundred plus years of spotlessness. We are long overdue for such an event.

Another milestone: Below is the chart of the top 25 years with the most number of spotless days since 1849. To date (July 17, 2018), according the spaceweather.com, 2018 has had 132 spotless days. For the year 2018, if we only have 18 to 30 more spotless days, which is highly likely, then the year 2018 will be included within those top 25 years as having more than 150 spotless days. Thus, around January 4, 2019, the chart below might be upgraded to include the year 2018. I predict that 2018 will have at least 150 spotless days, but that figure could be closer to 200 days if we continue to have an average of 20 spotless days per month for the next four months. Remember, in July 2018, we experienced 27 spotless days. August 2018 has already given us 11 spotless days, with a possibility of 13 more to the end of the month. That could total 24 days.

Notice that in the last solar minimum, cycle 24 (2004 - 2011), we had three years (2007, 2008, 2009) of deep solar minimums. Each of these three years were included in the top 25 years of spotlessness.

The latest from NOAA:

Issued: 2018 Aug 17 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 229 Issued at 0030Z on 17 Aug 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 16 Aug
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2718 S08E23 191 0010 Bxo 02 02 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z Aug
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 17 Aug to 19 Aug
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

[Maria]

News from NOAA shows that Alpha AR2718 has decayed and is no longer a Beta. However, it has increased slightly in area. The GOES X-ray flux shows little activity with no B or C flaring. Nevertheless, we do have solar winds as there is a huge southern coronal hole near the equatorial region (typical of solar minimums). This coronal hole surrounds AR2718.

Check the solar image at https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... 4_0193.jpg
Notice that there is a huge circular solar filament to the north of AR2718. If this explodes in a hyderflare, we could even experience a coronal mass ejection (CME).

Issued: 2018 Aug 18 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 230 Issued at 0030Z on 18 Aug 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 17 Aug
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 17/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2718 S07E10 191 0020 Hrx 01 01 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 17/2400Z Aug
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 18 Aug to 20 Aug
Nmbr Lat Lo
None