As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

[Maria]

. . . and March will have two full moons, March 2 & March 31. I look forward to the second one when holy week is just around the corner.

Time seems to fly, doesn't it? Great Lent will soon turn to Holy Week and the Glorious Pascha of the Lord!

A CME may be incoming. This is a rare event. However, as our shield is down during this solar minimum, even a small CME could have a big effect.

This in from Belgium for February 28, 2018:

COMMENT: Solar activity remains to be low, without even B-class flares
reported during last 24 hours. Occasional B-class flares are possible in
the coming hours, and isolated C-class flares are possible but not very
probable.
The low level flaring from the Catania sunspot group 73 (NOAA AR 2700)
observed this morning was associated with coronal dimming and EIT wave,
i.e. on disc signature of the coronal mass ejection (CME). More will be
reported when coronagraph data become available, however it is very
probable that the CME was rather narrow and slow and it will therefore not
arrive to the Earth. During last 24 hours solar protons remained at
background level.

Solar wind speed is presently about 430 km/s and the interplanetary
magnetic field magnitude is about 5 nT. The solar wind flow, associated
with the equatorial coronal hole that reached central meridian in February
22, reached its maximum value of about 560 km/s on February 27 at about
15:30 UT.
The fast solar wind associated with rather small and patchy equatorial
coronal hole which reached central meridian in the morning of February 26
might be expected to arrive to the Earth in the morning of March 02.
Due to fast solar wind and longer intervals of negative value of the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field disturbed geomagnetic
conditions were reported around midday yesterday (NOAA reported Kp=4 and
local station at Dourbes reported K=4). Presently geomagnetic conditions
are quiet to unsettled and we expect them to stay so in the coming hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 012, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.

[Maria]

Now that Belgium has redone the month of February, here are the final results.
As predicted, one of the former spotless days (day 4) was increased to a new
rating of ₁₂, but many of the daily sunspot numbers have been lowered, so the
adjusted EISN for February 2018 is approximately 11.

The total number of spotless days for February 2018 now stands at 12,
while January 2018 had a total of 15 spotless days.
This adds up to 27 spotless days for 2018 (edited to correct error) as of Feb. 28.

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 02-28-2018_EISNcurrent.png (44.66 KiB) Viewed 1040 times

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 03-01-2018_EISNcurrent.png (39.52 KiB) Viewed 1040 times

[Maria]

Either AR2700 issued a B6.8 at 0052UT (4:52 PM PST) on March 2, 2018 or we have a newly returned active region (AR2699).

Here are some images: The top image shows the plot of this solar flare, while the bottom is a solar image.

03-02-2018_B6.8_0052UT_AR2700 or returning AR2699_goes-xray-flux.gif (12.12 KiB) Viewed 1038 times

solar image_03-02-2018_B6.8_0054 UT.jpg (11.63 KiB) Viewed 1038 times

This has been confirmed by NOAA as a B6.8 flare from AR2700.

# Edited Events for 2018 Mar 02
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4140 + 0030 0052 0117 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B6.8 1.3E-03 2700
4140 + 0046 0047 0051 LEA 3 FLA N06W55 SF 2700

cf: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/sola ... nt-reports

[Maria]

AR2700 has unleashed another B flare. This time it peaked at 0527 UT on March 2, 2018 and measured B5.2 per this NOAA plot.

03-02-2018_Two B Flares_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (11.34 KiB) Viewed 1034 times

and below is another image of the sun showing an active region that is approaching the Southeastern limb of the sun.

solar image_03-02-2018_0106UT_something approacheth the Southeastern Limb.jpg (93.33 KiB) Viewed 1025 times

[Maria]

Below is information from NOAA regarding the recent solar flares unleashed by AR2700

Edited Events for 2018 Mar 02

#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4140 + 0030 0052 0117 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B6.8 1.3E-03 2700
4140 + 0046 0047 0051 LEA 3 FLA N06W55 SF 2700

4150 + 0514 0527 0534 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B5.2 3.7E-04 2700

4160 + 0758 0803 0808 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.3 5.7E-05 2700

cf: hftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/events/yesterday.txt

There was an impressive solar flare, which was not listed here.
Date: 2018-03-02
Max: 11:07:00 UTC
Type: C1.9

NOAA shows AR2700 persisting as an alpha, although it has
ioccasionally been listed as decaying into an alpha plague.
Currently, it is now approaching the Western limb of the sun.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 62 Issued at 0030Z on 03 Mar 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 02 Mar
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 02/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2700 N07W68 330 0010 Axx 00 01 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 02/2400Z Mar
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 03 Mar to 05 Mar
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

[Maria]

Below is a photo of our sun showing the departure of AR2700 and something else that is arriving on the Southeastern limb.
The huge polar coronal holes will most likely issue solar winds in the next few days.

solar image_03-04-2018_0327 UT_watch SE limb_huge coronal holes.jpg (14.13 KiB) Viewed 1003 times

Here is the GOES plot showing the decreasing solar flares released by AR2700.

03-04-2018_0350 UT_AR2700 departs with decreasing solar flaring_goes-xray-flux.gif (12.7 KiB) Viewed 1003 times

[Maria]

The sun is spotless again, with the newly observed frothy white area in the SE area of the solar disc remaining quiet -- obviously an alpha plage for now. Is this the remains of the former Beta AR2699? Most likely. It was due to return on March 3.

Here is the comment from Belgium's Royal Observatory for March 4, 2018 at 1329 UTC.
In a few hours, the comment for March 5, 2018 will be posted.

COMMENT: Solar activity is very low with only one B-class flare reported
during last 24 hours. Catania sunspot group 73 (NOAA AR 2007) has rotated
behind the west solar limb and there are presently no numbered active
regions on the visible side of the solar disc.
We expect low solar activity to continue in the coming hours with very low
probability of flaring, even on the B-class level. Coronagraph images do
not show signatures of the Earth directed CMEs, and the solar protons
remained at the background level.

The solar wind speed is presently about 370 km/s and the interplanetary
magnetic field magnitude is 3 nT.
The increase of the solar wind speed (up to 460 km/s), interplanetary
magnetic field (up to 10 nT) and temperature, simultaneously with decrease
of density observed during last 24 hours are probably associated with the
equatorial coronal hole, which reached central meridian in the morning of
February 26.
The geomagnetic conditions are presently quiet and we expect quiet to
unsettled geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 24 STATIONS.

cf. http://www.sidc.be/products/xut/