As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

[Maria]

Two hours later at 2224 UT (1524 PST or 3:24 PST), it is still flaring from the far side of the sun (northeastern edge).

Currently the solar disc shows no sunspots at all, so this could be either a solar filament
or an active region on the far side of the sun.

I had to edit out the original picture as it was dynamic.

If this is an active region from the far side, will it still be active about 12 to 13 days from now when the sun revolves?

Below is the replacement. Notice that it is still flaring at 0700 UT on Nov. 8, 2017
(translated as 11PM PST on Nov. 7, 2017).

solar image_11-08-2017_0700UT_continued far side flaring.jpg (73.79 KiB) Viewed 1430 times

[Maria]

From the Spaceweather's time machine at http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php ... &year=2017

HEDGEROW PROMINENCE: On the northeastern edge of the sun, a wall of hot plasma has
sprung up, towering more than 40,000 km above the stellar surface. Randy Shivak photographed
the enormous structure from his backyard observatory in Estero, Florida:

"Even though the sun is blank (no sunspots) there are still some impressive things to see," says Shival. "I captured this prominence using my Astro-Physics 152mm refracting telescope and a Daystar Quantum PE 0.5 angstrom filter. It's a big one!"

This is a "hedgerow prominence" -- a massive cloud of plasma held aloft by solar magnetic fields. NASA and Japanese space telescopes have taken high resolution images of similar prominences and seen some amazing things such as (1) tadpole-shaped plumes that float up from the base of the prominence; (2) narrow streams of plasma that descend from the top like waterfalls; and (3) swirls and vortices that resemble van Gogh's Starry Night. Got a solar telescope? Take a look!

Ah, so this is most likely what I have been noticing around the northeastern perimeter of the sun.

According to Belgium, there are at least two (several) prominent filaments which could erupt into a hyderflare and unleash an earth-directed solar flare. Thus, even though we are in a solar minimum with no active regions on the solar disc, we still could get a geo-directed solar flare from these hedgerow prominences. Active regions are not the only source of M and X-flares.

From Belgium's Royal Observatory at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu/

COMMENT: The visible solar disc was spotless and no flares have been
recorded in past 24-hour. The solar activity is expected to remain quiet
with the X-ray flux below C level.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection have been observed. Several
filaments are visible on the disk, which prevent us to initiate the all
quiet alert as it cannot be excluded that one filament erupt with some
Earth-directed components.
The solar protons flux remained at background levels over the past 24 hours
and is expected to remain so.

The Earth is now in the slow flow of the solar wind that as globally
decreased from 530 km/s to the current value of 470 km/s. The declining
trend of the solar wind parameter is expected to continue until it reaches
about 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained below
6 nT and the Bz component fluctuated between -4 and 4 nT. The solar wind
parameters are expected to remain at the nominal level for the next 3 days.
A narrow northern polar coronal hole extension down to latitude 10-degree
North was facing Earth yesterday afternoon on Nov 11. The associated high
speed stream is not expected to reach Earth before Nov 14.

As the fast solar wind has faded away, the geomagnetic conditions were
quiet (local K Dourbes 1-2, NOAA Kp 1-2) and are expected to remain quiet
until the high speed stream associated with the new coronal hole reaches
Earth in several days.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 20 STATIONS.

For a more recent image from NASA, please visit:

https://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/

[Maria]

This just in from NOAA:

:Product: 20171112events.txt
:Created: 2017 Nov 13 0627 UT
:Date: 2017 11 12

Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov

#

Missing data: ////

Updated every 5 minutes.

Edited Events for 2017 Nov 12

#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1680 + 2000 2020 2029 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.8 2.4E-04

1690 + 2256 2300 2303 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.4 6.2E-05

Is this a solar filament eruption? Is this a new active region, or could this be an old active region that is returning?

[Maria]

Two new solar flares in the B range. One was a B7.5, which is significant during this solar minimum, as we have had 12 days of no sunspots. This is record setting. Last month had the lowest number of sunspots (13.2), while this month had the highest number of consecutive spotless days, 12, so far.

Something seems to be approaching the limb of the sun. Could it be a new or returning active region?

Time will tell. Tomorrow perhaps or the day after?

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar ... nt-reports

:Product: 20171113events.txt
:Created: 2017 Nov 13 0832 UT
:Date: 2017 11 13

Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov

#

Missing data: ////

Updated every 5 minutes.

Edited Events for 2017 Nov 13

#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1700 + 0639 0648 0652 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B7.5 3.5E-04

1710 + 0758 0804 0809 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.4 9.4E-05

[Maria]

solar image_11-13-2017_2041 UT.jpg (163.05 KiB) Viewed 1408 times

Tomorrow could end the lengthy days of spotlessness with an active region rotating around from the far side of the sun.
See the above picture. The new AR is actively flaring on the left side of this solar disc.

From Belgium's Royal Observatory comes verification that there is indeed a small active region likely to continue producing B- and C-class solar flares.

COMMENT: Solar activity is low, with only few B-class flares reported
during last 24 hours.
We expect solar activity to stay at the same low level with possible, but
not very probable isolated C-class flares from the active region which
started its rotation from the behind of the east solar limb.
No Earth directed CMEs have been observed and the solar protons remained at
background level in the past 24 hours.
The Earth is inside the slow solar wind with the speed of about 400 km/s.
During last 24 hours the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was stable
having the value of about 3nT.
The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and we expect quiet to possibly
unsettled and even active geomagnetic conditions starting from tomorrow
afternoon. The expected disturbed geomagnetic conditions are associated
with the low latitude extend of the northern polar coronal hole (reached
central meridian in the early morning of November 11).
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 24 STATIONS.

And with the northern pole coronal hole and the solar winds which issued forth from it, there were some awesome auroras.

[Maria]

Unless this active region starts to develop rapidly, it remains more like a plage with no dark cores (sunspots) at its center.

See The Sun Now for the latest pictures of the solar disc.

https://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/

[Maria]

Belgium's Royal Observatory is saying that there is an newly rotated active region on the East solar limb (left hand side).

http://www.sidc.be/products/meu/

COMMENT: Solar activity remains to be low. The background X-ray flux has
increased to a low B-level, due to appearance of the active region which
rotated from the behind of the East solar limb. This, still not numbered
active region, might be the source of B-class and possibly, but not very
probably, also low C-class flares in the coming hours.

During last 24 hours no Earth directed CMEs have been observed and the
solar protons remained at background level.

The solar wind speed is presently 380 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic
field magnitude is about 9 nT.

The in situ observations (from DSCOVR satellite), showed sudden increase of
the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude, density, temperature and the
solar wind speed at about 00:48 UT this morning, indicating arrival of a
shock wave. The shock is probably associated with the large filament
eruption from the north-east quadrant of the Sun, which took place in the
morning of November 10.

The geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled and we expect them to
stay so in the coming hours with the possibility of the active geomagnetic
conditions starting from this evening, due to expected arrival of the fast
solar wind associated with with the low latitude extend of the northern
polar coronal hole (reached central meridian in the early morning of
November 11)

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN: 014, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.[/b]

However, NASA is apparently denying it as http://www.spaceweather says that today is spotless.

Nevertheless, Our Sun Today shows a big red imperfection on the solar disc with a dark core.

Click this image below, which I cannot display due to the huge file size.
Then click it once more to enlarge the image.
Since the image is dynamic, it is not really legal for me to display it here at E Cafe.

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg