As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

[Maria]

The active area Beta AR2723 is still present on the sun, but it is nearing the Western limb where it will disappear for approximately two weeks.

Here is the recent comment from Belgium's Royal Observatory.

COMMENT: One active region visible on the solar disc, NOAA 2723 with beta
magnetic field configuration. No C-class flares in past 24 h. Solar
activity is expected to remain at low levels.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar
protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours.

The solar wind speed is at 410 km/s with interplanetary magnetic fields of
3 nT. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet. The fast solar wind
associated with a small negative polarity equatorial coronal hole is
expected to arrive later today or tomorrow, causing up to active
geomagnetic conditions.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 012, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

So far, the Estimated International Sunspot Number monthly mean hovers at 15.
With this solar minimum, I predict that this figure will drop much lower
as we start to experience spotless days two days from now.

[Maria]

AR2723 is fading and departing this side of the sun.

However, a new threat awaits us.

The sun has an extremely large coronal hole with solar winds expected to arrive on October 7 and 8.
Radio communications will face interruptions and down time. Don't depend on GPS during this time.

[Maria]

Yesterday's comment from Belgium's Royal Observatory - New Active Region is present on the solar disc.

COMMENT: A new Active Region or plage is rotating around the East limb and
has produced a B1.7 flare in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in
the next 24 hours is estimated at 3%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR varied between about
455 and 535 km/s in the past 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field
(IMF) was predominantly directed away from the Sun and its magnitude varied
between about 1 and 8 nT. Bz was below -5 nT around 16-17 UT and 18-19 UT
on October 10.

Unsettled to minor storm geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 3 and 5;
NOAA Kp between 3 and 5) were registered in the past 24 hours. K Dourbes
was equal to 5 between 18h and 24h UT on October 10, coinciding with a
negative excursion of Bz. Quiet to unsettled levels (K Dourbes < 4) are
expected on October 11, 12 and 13, with a chance for active intervals (K
Dourbes = 4) on October 11.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.

UPDATE: there have been two solar class B flares within the last 24 hours.
Tiny Active Region AR2724 is now visible on the sun. http://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/

Edited Events for 2018 Oct 12

#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7250 + 0143 0150 0156 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.1 1.1E-04 2724
7250 + 0152 //// 0157 LEA C RSP 025-079 II/1 864 2724

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/sola ... nt-reports

[Maria]

AR2724 just unleashed a huge B7.1 class solar flare, which is quite unusual for this solar minimum.

Maximum 2018-10-12 14:08:00 UTC B7.1

AR2724 remains quite small and does not appear to be growing. Visit http://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/ to see this active region.

To see the chart, please visit: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

From Belgium's Royal Observatory: two days of sunspots. 7 on 10/11 and 17 on 10/12/2018.
http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

2018 10 01 2018.749 17 2.0 28 34
2018 10 02 2018.752 15 1.9 26 31
2018 10 03 2018.755 13 1.6 34 41
2018 10 04 2018.758 11 1.7 25 37
2018 10 05 2018.760 0 0.0 39 42
2018 10 06 2018.763 0 0.0 27 30
2018 10 07 2018.766 0 0.0 27 28
2018 10 08 2018.768 0 0.0 34 34
2018 10 09 2018.771 0 0.0 37 39
2018 10 10 2018.774 0 0.0 33 35
2018 10 11 2018.777 7 5.2 24 26
2018 10 12 2018.779 14 7.6 30 33

[Maria]

Two more active regions?

From Belgium's Royal Observatory 10/15/2018

COMMENT: There are two active regions visible on the solar disk, with alpha
magnetic field configuration and one sunspot each. No C-class flares in
past 24 h. Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar
protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours.

The solar wind speed is at 620 km/s with interplanetary magnetic fields of
4 nT. The Earth is under the influence of a high speed solar wind stream.
Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled. For the next 48h
unsettled to active periods can be expected (with isolated minor storm
periods possible).

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 014, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.

Also from Belgium: Text message for SILSO with the Estimated International Sunspot Numbers (EISN)
Currently EISN = 140 total for the month / 31 = 4.5 EISN mean for October 2018
A mean of 4.5 would assume that there were no more new sunspots. This would be the lowest possible mean.

EISN of 10 is the current average for the month through October 15, 2018.

2018 10 01 2018.749 17 2.0 30 36
2018 10 02 2018.752 15 1.9 28 33
2018 10 03 2018.755 13 1.6 36 43
2018 10 04 2018.758 11 1.7 27 39
2018 10 05 2018.760 0 0.0 41 44
2018 10 06 2018.763 0 0.0 29 32
2018 10 07 2018.766 0 0.0 29 30
2018 10 08 2018.768 0 0.0 36 36
2018 10 09 2018.771 0 0.0 39 41
2018 10 10 2018.774 0 0.0 35 37
2018 10 11 2018.777 7 5.9 28 28
2018 10 12 2018.779 16 5.0 30 39
2018 10 13 2018.782 25 5.7 28 33
2018 10 14 2018.785 23 3.3 26 30
2018 10 15 2018.788 13 7.3 24 26

The GOES X-ray flux shows a much lower solar output in the A0 range.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux
This means that these two active regions might be decaying.

Checking other sources:

[Maria]

This is the aurora season:

[Barbara]

Wow ! Where was this ?