As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

[Maria]

Ar2702 is now a beta.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 77 Issued at 0030Z on 18 Mar 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 17 Mar
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 17/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2702 N21W47 112 0010 Bxo 03 05 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 17/2400Z Mar
Nmbr Location Lo
2701 S12W36 101
II. Regions Due to Return 18 Mar to 20 Mar
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

Here is the NOAA solar region summary for Mar 19, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 78 Issued at 0030Z on 19 Mar 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 18 Mar
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 18/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2702 N19W60 112 0010 Bxo 04 03 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 18/2400Z Mar
Nmbr Location Lo
2701 S12W50 102
II. Regions Due to Return 19 Mar to 21 Mar
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

Notice that AR2700 did not return on its transit on the far side of the sun.
Instead, there is the sudden appearance of AR2702, which is now a Beta.
As AR2702 approaches the Western limb on Monday or Tuesday, Mar 19
or 20, it could (but probably won't) unleash a solar flare that is be geoeffective.

[Maria]

AR2702 is crossing over to the far side of the sun, so some early-viewing
astronomers have seen it, while others have not.

Comments in italics following the number tabulations are mine.

Here is the text msg from Belgium's Royal Observatory:

Date . . . . . . . . . EISN std st str
2018 03 01 2018.163 7 6.0 21 22 - high standard deviation of 6.0 with only one outlier deleted
2018 03 02 2018.166 0 3.5 11 17 - high standard deviation of 3.5 with six outliers deleted
2018 03 03 2018.168 0 0.0 28 29
2018 03 04 2018.171 0 0.0 35 36
2018 03 05 2018.174 0 0.0 28 29
2018 03 06 2018.177 0 0.0 25 26
2018 03 07 2018.179 0 0.0 18 19
2018 03 08 2018.182 0 0.0 30 33
2018 03 09 2018.185 0 0.0 29 30
2018 03 10 2018.188 0 0.0 22 23
2018 03 11 2018.190 0 0.0 30 31
2018 03 12 2018.193 0 0.0 33 35
2018 03 13 2018.196 0 0.0 24 26
2018 03 14 2018.199 0 0.0 33 33
2018 03 15 2018.201 0 0.0 19 24 - five outliers deleted
2018 03 16 2018.204 0 0.0 28 29
2018 03 17 2018.207 7 6.6 12 13 - high standard deviation of 6.6 with only one outlier deleted
2018 03 18 2018.210 7 6.8 16 18 - high standard deviation of 6.8 with two outliers deleted
2018 03 19 2018.212 0 0.0 23 27 - four outliers deleted

To see the ever-changing dynamic chart, please visit: http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

The Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) is steady at less than 1.0
If this number remains, then it will be the lowest EISN for this current solar minimum.
Expect lower numbers in the future. This solar minimum might last for a long time
where we will experience frigid winters and cooler summers during a mini-ice age.

Here is Belgium's Royal Observatory comment for Monday, March 19, 2018

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels. Active region NOAA 2702
decayed further into a spotless faculae field and was quiet. No earth-
directed coronal mass ejection (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal
levels.

Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

Earth is under the influence of the high speed stream (HSS) from a negative
polarity coronal hole (CH). Solar wind speed gradually increased from
initial values around 510 km/s to peak values near 610 km/s at 04UT, before
declining to its current 520 km/s (DSCOVR). A stretch of negative Bz was
observed between 17 and 22UT, with values as low as -9 nT. During the
second half of the period, Bz varied between mostly -3 and +3 nT. The
interplanetary magnetic field was mostly directed towards the Sun.

In response to the period of sustained negative Bz, geomagnetic storming
conditions were observed from 18UT on 18 March till 03UT on 19 March, with
Kp reaching 6 (moderate storm) during the 21-24UT interval. Dst values were
modest at only -36nT.

Small near-equatorial CHs and two extensions from the negative polarity
southern polar CH are moving into geo-effective positions. The associated
wind streams may affect the earth environment in the next few days.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected, with a chance on an isolated
minor storming episode.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.

[Maria]

NOAA confirms that AR2701 and AR2702 are now H-alpha plages without spots.
Thus, the sun is once again spotless.

20 days of March - 4 days with questioning spotlessness = 16 days of spotlessness so far.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 79 Issued at 0030Z on 20 Mar 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 19 Mar
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 19/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 19/2400Z Mar
Nmbr Location Lo
2701 S12W64 102
2702 N19W74 112
II. Regions Due to Return 20 Mar to 22 Mar
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

[Maria]

The sun is still spotless with two H-alpha plages, AR2701 and AR2702, according to NOAA.

Belgium's consortium of astronomers has been reporting in, so the EISN has changed:

Date . . . . . . . . . EISN std st str
2018 03 01 2018.163 7 6.0 21 22 - high standard deviation of 6.0 with only one outlier deleted
2018 03 02 2018.166 0 3.5 11 17 - high standard deviation of 3.5 with six outliers deleted
2018 03 03 2018.168 0 0.0 28 29
2018 03 04 2018.171 0 0.0 35 36
2018 03 05 2018.174 0 0.0 28 29
2018 03 06 2018.177 0 0.0 25 26
2018 03 07 2018.179 0 0.0 18 19
2018 03 08 2018.182 0 0.0 30 33
2018 03 09 2018.185 0 0.0 29 30
2018 03 10 2018.188 0 0.0 22 23
2018 03 11 2018.190 0 0.0 30 31
2018 03 12 2018.193 0 0.0 34 36
2018 03 13 2018.196 0 0.0 25 27
2018 03 14 2018.199 0 0.0 34 34
2018 03 15 2018.201 0 0.0 20 25 - five outliers deleted
2018 03 16 2018.204 0 0.0 28 29
2018 03 17 2018.207 13 0.7 7 14 - seven outliers deleted = 50%
2018 03 18 2018.210 8 6.7 20 22 - high standard deviation of 6.7 with two outliers deleted
2018 03 19 2018.212 0 0.0 24 28 - four outliers deleted
2018 03 20 2018.215 0 0.0 29 30

The average EISN is approaching 2.0 with 17 days of spotlessness. This is still a record setting month.

[Maria]

The sun has been consistently spotless for 20 of the 24 days in March.
However, this is not a continuous stretch as it was broken with the appearance
of active regions AR2701 and AR2702 as numbered by NOAA.

This leaves four days that are in question.

All four of these days (see italicized notes below) have high standard deviations with outliers which have been deleted.
As the astronomers send in their reports, the results fluctuate between spotless days and days with sunspots, so
Belgium may or may not declare those days, especially days 1 and 18, to have had spots. Nevertheless from past
records, I expect Belgium to determine that all four of these days did indeed have spots. The results on Day 19 are
still too early to call, but it leans toward a spotless day.

Date . . . . . . . . . EISN std st str
2018 03 01 2018.163 7 6.0 21 22 - high standard deviation of 6.0 with only one outlier rejected.
2018 03 02 2018.166 0 3.5 11 17 - high standard deviation of 3.5 with six outliers rejected
2018 03 03 2018.168 0 0.0 28 29
2018 03 04 2018.171 0 0.0 35 36
2018 03 05 2018.174 0 0.0 28 29
2018 03 06 2018.177 0 0.0 25 26
2018 03 07 2018.179 0 0.0 18 19
2018 03 08 2018.182 0 0.0 30 33
2018 03 09 2018.185 0 0.0 29 30
2018 03 10 2018.188 0 0.0 22 23
2018 03 11 2018.190 0 0.0 30 31
2018 03 12 2018.193 0 0.0 34 36
2018 03 13 2018.196 0 0.0 25 27
2018 03 14 2018.199 0 0.0 34 34
2018 03 15 2018.201 0 0.0 20 25
2018 03 16 2018.204 0 0.0 29 30
2018 03 17 2018.207 0 0.0 8 16 - half of the reports (8/16) have been rejected as outliers
2018 03 18 2018.210 7 6.8 22 24 - high standard deviation of 6.8 with two outliers rejected
2018 03 19 2018.212 0 0.0 24 28 - four outliers rejected
2018 03 20 2018.215 0 0.0 32 33
2018 03 21 2018.218 0 0.0 30 31
2018 03 22 2018.221 0 0.0 22 23
2018 03 23 2018.223 0 0.0 22 22
2018 03 24 2018.226 0 0.0 22 24

Days 1 and 2 as well as days 17 and 18 all have inconclusive reports, which will need to be resolved by Belgium.
On Days 2 and 17 few scientific reports have been accepted, less than 12, plus there are many rejected outliers, thus a consensus is lacking.

See the EISN chart below.

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 03-24-2018_EISNcurrent.png (37.7 KiB) Viewed 1085 times

Looking at NOAA's GOES x-ray flux charts, there has been a consistent plunge down to the lower A levels.
During a deep solar minimum, which we are approaching, the readings get down to A0. Right now,
the chart shows very infrequent A0 readings, with the average reading in the A1 levels.
See the flat lined chart below and notice the red line.

03-24-2018_spotless sun_solar minimum levels infrequently reading A0_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (11.35 KiB) Viewed 1085 times

[Maria]

Belgium's report showing a spotless inactive sun. Yes, this will cause global cooling.

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels. The solar disk remained
devoid of sunspots. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was at nominal levels.

Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels.

Solar wind near Earth was enhanced due to the influence of the negative
polarity coronal hole (CH) wind stream. Solar wind speed increased from an
initial 400 km/s to peak values just below 500 km/s, ending the period near
470 km/s (DSCOVR). Bz oscillated between -7 and +7 nT. The interplanetary
magnetic field was predominantly directed towards the Sun. Geomagnetic
activity was at quiet to unsettled levels, with Kp index recording active
conditions during the 00-03UT and 03-06UT interval.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected with a decreasing
chance on an isolated minor storming episode in response to the continuing
CH wind stream.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.

[Maria]

More reports coming in have changed the statistics. Yes, that is to be expected.

Now there are three days showing sunspot, each day with an EISN of 7.
The reports on 3/17, with a very high standard deviation of 7.1, indicate
that of 16 reports accepted, several astronomers reported 14 or even 15
sunspots, while at least half (8) reported none with only one outlier.
That is quite a difference from the day before in which 8 of 16 showed
no spots with 8 outliers.

Five more days to go before the end of the month of March.

The Sun Now and NOAA reveal no sunspots confirming Belgium's comments.

Date . . . . . . . . . EISN std st str
2018 03 01 2018.163 7 6.0 21 22
2018 03 02 2018.166 0 3.5 11 17
2018 03 03 2018.168 0 0.0 28 29
2018 03 04 2018.171 0 0.0 35 36
2018 03 05 2018.174 0 0.0 28 29
2018 03 06 2018.177 0 0.0 26 27
2018 03 07 2018.179 0 0.0 19 20
2018 03 08 2018.182 0 0.0 31 34
2018 03 09 2018.185 0 0.0 30 31
2018 03 10 2018.188 0 0.0 23 24
2018 03 11 2018.190 0 0.0 31 32
2018 03 12 2018.193 0 0.0 34 36
2018 03 13 2018.196 0 0.0 26 28
2018 03 14 2018.199 0 0.0 35 35
2018 03 15 2018.201 0 0.0 21 26
2018 03 16 2018.204 0 0.0 30 31
2018 03 17 2018.207 7 7.1 16 17 - this one has recently changed. Standard Deviation is high at 7.1. Yesterday, it had an EISN of 0.0
2018 03 18 2018.210 7 6.8 23 25
2018 03 19 2018.212 0 0.0 25 29
2018 03 20 2018.215 0 0.0 33 34
2018 03 21 2018.218 0 0.0 32 33
2018 03 22 2018.221 0 0.0 25 26
2018 03 23 2018.223 0 0.0 25 25
2018 03 24 2018.226 0 0.0 28 30
2018 03 25 2018.229 0 0.0 33 33
2018 03 26 2018.232 0 0.0 30 32