As we approach the end of January 2018, the sun has remained spotless
for nine consecutive days, with a total monthly count of 16 spotless days,
two of which are questionable since international scientists have not reached
a consensus. Of 24 to 25 stations reporting, only 15 agree that those days on
January 7 and 14 were spotless. The other 9 to 10 stations saw sunspots.
While two-thirds (15 out of 25) is a majority, Belgium usually sides with the
minority, especially if Belgium also observed a few lingering ephemeral
sunspots that were only visible for a few hours during those days.
How long will this spotless streak in January continue?
Will it continue in February without a break? Perhaps. Los Angeles
is predicted to have temperatures in the 80s this week. Oh, yes, I still
believe that the earth is being warmed by the sun, not by humans.
If the sun suddenly were to cease its activity, we would instantly freeze.
Here are the recent monthly means for the International Sunspot Numbers:
November 2017 scored 5.7, which is the lowest ISN monthly mean for this current cycle.
December 2017 scored 8.2, which demonstrated a slight uptick in solar activity.
January 2018 has not yet been determined, but so far the mean is less than 6.0.
If the spotlessness continues into February, I predict that the monthly mean for
January might be between 5.1 to 5.6, which will be the lowest ISN for this cycle.
Below is the latest plot from the Royal Observatory of Belgium showing International
Monthly Sunspot Numbers. If you look at the plots for February during solar minimums,
February seems to have one of the lowest monthly means. In fact, look at February
2012, a time of solar maximum. February 2012 took a nosedive in sunspot activity.