As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

[Maria]

Today results may have broken the three day spotless cycle of the sun with the development of a bipolar active region at S14E45. Although NOAA has not acknowledged this active region yet, during this solar minimum, such regions will develop and disappear quite rapidly all within 24 hours or less.

This in from Belgium's Royal Observatory: http://www.sidc.be/products/meu/

COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been quiet. No
significant flares have been recorded. A small bipolar region has emerged
at S14E45 and is showing some evidence of growth that may increase flaring
activity over the next 24 hours. There are no other significant Active
Regions (AR) on the solar disk. There's a small filament channel located in
the South-West, but appears stable. No Earth directed Coronal Mass
Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar activity is expected to remain
low over the next 24 hours with a small probability of C-class flares.
The solar wind speed has decreased from around 575 to 500 km/s over the
past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has remained around 6 nT.
The Bz component fluctuated around 0 nT, ranging between -5 and +5 nT.
Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-4 (NOAA) and local K index
1-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be quiet.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 007, BASED ON 06 STATIONS.

Meanwhile, the EISN/SILSO plot shows that ten stations have reported, but
five of those have been rejected as outliers. That is a 50 percent rejection,
which is too high to ignore. The current EISN plot shows 000 sunspots
instead of 007 as reported by Belgium earlier. Has this new bipolar region
already decayed? Note the image below was taken about 6.5 hours ago.

solar image_01-15-2018 at 1306UT_new SE region .jpg (96.79 KiB) Viewed 1202 times

cf: http://sidc.oma.be/silso/home

11 January : 11
12 January : 0
13 January : 0
14 January : 0
15 January : 7

The EISN/SILSO plot has changed dramatically since I last posted:
The EISN (Estimated International Sunspot Number) has now risen to
7 while the number of stations reporting (SR) is now 10 with only
one report rejected as an outlier. Total Stations Reporting (TSR)
is 11. The standard deviation (Std) is abnormally high at 5.9.

Date . . . . . . . . . . . . EISN Std SR TSR
2018 01 15 2018.040 07 5.9 10 11

[Maria]

NOAA confirms the existence of the SE active area as AR2696, and it is a beta.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 16 Issued at 0030Z on 16 Jan 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 15 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 15/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2696 S11E25 123 0020 Bxo 02 02 Beta

[Maria]

The EISN/SILSO plot has changed dramatically since I last posted:
The EISN (Estimated International Sunspot Number) has now risen to
7 while the number of stations reporting (SR) is now 10 with only
one report rejected as an outlier. Total Stations Reporting (TSR)
is 11. The standard deviation (Std) is abnormally high at 5.9.

Date . . . . . . . . . . . . EISN Std SR TSR
2018 01 15 2018.040 07 5.9 10 11

The EISN/SILSO plot has changed again with new active region AR2696 being classified as a Beta.
How long will this one last? Not betting money, but I think it might fade in a day or so much like the rest.

Date . . . . . . . . . . . . EISN Std SR TSR
2018 01 15 2018.040 12 0.7 6 12
2018 01 16 2018.042 15 1.4 5 06

Note: The Sunspot numbers for Jan. 15 have changed from 07 to 12
and the standard deviation was reduced from 5.9 to 0.7 with half of the
reports (6 of 12) deleted as outliers. Remember that these reporting
stations are viewing the sun at different time zones, from different
latitudes, and with possible adverse weather conditions such as heavy
storms or clouds. This is why stations cannot issue reports every day
of the year.

[Maria]

The new active region, AR2696, was quite active today, Jan. 18, as we experienced a series of solar flares starting from 0735 to 0957 UT. Even though we are in a solar minimum, the polar areas of earth are experiencing beautiful auroras due to higher solar winds coming from the coronal holes. See http://www.spaceweather.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 19 Issued at 0030Z on 19 Jan 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 18 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 18/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2696 S12W15 124 0010 Bxo 02 02 Beta.

Currently, the flaring is in the mid A levels, and Belgium is reporting a decline in sunspot numbers with preliminary reports indicating 12 for January 19, so perhaps AR2696 is decaying.
cf. http://www.sidc.be/silso/home

14 January : 0
15 January : 13
16 January : 16
17 January : 17
18 January : 13

INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2018 Jan 18 12:30UTC

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been quiet. No significant flares
have been recorded. Active Region (AR) 2696 (Mcintosh class:Bxo; Mag.
type:Beta) is the only region on the disk, producing a B9.7 class flare.
Flaring activity from the region has been increasing. There are no other
significant ARs on the solar disk. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections
(CMEs) have been detected. Solar activity is expected to remain low over
the next 24 hours with a chance of C-class flares.
The solar wind speed has fluctuated around 350 km/s over the past 24 hours.
The total magnetic field strength has remained around 5 nT. The Bz
component has been mainly positive ranging between -1 and +5 nT.
Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 0-1 (NOAA) and local K index
0-1 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be quiet, however a coronal hole is currently passing disk centre and
may increase geomagnetic activity in 2-3 days.

[Maria]

Today is the third spotless day in a row. However, for the month of January, I estimate that we have had a total of eight spotless days so far as two of the ten spotless days listed on the Belgium plot might be rejected on Feb. 1 due to lack of scientific consensus.

cf. http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

Due to solar winds, auroras have been simply glorious. Do I hear an Alleluia or an Amen?

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2018/ ... strip2.jpg

photo from www.spaceweather.com
Go to their gallery for more photos of splendid auroras.

[Maria]

The spotless sun erupted in a B 9.5 Class Solar Flare from spotless AR2696.
How did this happen?
There was an associated magnetic filament with AR2696.
A CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) occurred, but it is not earth-directed.

Read below -- from Belgium's Royal Observatory:

INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2018 Jan 22 12:30UTC

Solar activity was at very low levels. Spotless region NOAA 2696 (located
at S12W55) was the source of a B9.5 flare peaking at 02:57UT, during which
its group filament was ejected. Coronal dimming and a coronal wave were
observed in SDO/AIA imagery. Preliminary analysis indicates that the bulk
of the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) is not earth-directed. No
earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels.

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

Earth is under the influence of the high speed stream (HSS) from the
trans-equatorial extension of the negative southern polar coronal hole
(CH). Solar wind speed increased from an initial 460 km/s to its current
530 km/s, peaking around 00:40UT near 580 km/s (DSCOVR). Bz oscillated
between -6 and +8 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was directed
towards the Sun.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an active
episode recorded at Dourbes during the 12-15UT interval. In response to the
current HSS, mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic activity is expected
with a chance on an isolated active episode.

The blip on this plot below dated 01-22-2018 shows the flare.

[Maria]

According to UT, today Saturday, January 27, heralds the seventh day of spotlessness.

So far, the average estimated international sunspot number (EISN) is only six, one of the lowest for this current cycle in the solar minimum.

However, the sun remains active in delivering solar winds.

INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2018 Jan 26 12:30UTC

Solar activity was at very low levels. The Sun is spotless. No
earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal
levels.

Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

Solar wind became enhanced as the wind speed, initially steady at 420 km/s,
started a gradual increase around 01UT to values near 500 km/s by the end
of the period. Bz oscillated between -6 and +7 nT (DSCOVR). The
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly directed towards the Sun. A
small negative equatorial coronal hole (CH) is transiting the central
meridian.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels and is expected to
remain so during the next few days. An active episode is possible from the
moderate speed wind streams associated with the observed CHs.