As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

[Maria]

Australia just got zinged with another M1.1 solar flare.

For some reason, most of the M-class and X-class flares seem to erupt over Australia.

Notice how the sun is quite quiet, and then suddenly it flares in a very massive steep event.
This is known as a magnetic crochet. The one shown has a very sharp incline and a fast decline.

[Maria]

We have had five spikes producing sharp C flares within the past three hours.
The most recent flare has measured C5.1 at UT: Dec. 22, 2013, 03:47.

There is a 40% chance of a M-flare. My husband says that most bands on short wave radio are filled with static.

[Priest Antonios]

Maria,

Please forgive my ignorance but, what is an M-flare?

-Dcn Antonios

[Maria]

Maria,

Please forgive my ignorance but, what is an M-flare?

-Dcn Antonios

Dear Antonios,

My dad was an astrophysicist who worked at Lawrence Livermore Labs on Star Wars and on other projects. We would go out at night and observe the stars. He loved to take us to camp grounds during the summer months so that we could see the stars at night away from the city glare. We also visited several mountain peak observatories, like the one in Colorado.

Solar Flares are graded on logarithmic scales as are earthquakes.

There are A flares (lowest), and then slightly higher B flares. These flares do little damage.
Then at the upper magnitudes, there are C-flares, M-flares, and X-flares.
An M-5 flare can be disruptive and interfere with radio bands, GPS devices, and power grids if it is earth-directed.
X-flares can be very disruptive. They are like acts of God if they are earth-directed.

We have been very fortunate that most of the recent M- and X-flares have not been earth-directed.
For some strange reason, most of the M- and X-flares seem to occur over New Zealand, Australia, India, and Africa.
I guess that is because the sun is cyclical.

[Priest Antonios]

Maria,

Thank you very much for the helpful explanation.

-Dcn Antonios

[Maria]

Does anyone have any idea why Antarctica is depicted all in red in this global plot?
Note that the Arctic is colored from a light turquoise blue to a lime green.

EDIT: Okay, I just noticed that this plot is showing HIGH LATITUDE PROTON absorption. High Latitude Protons cause energy transfer and heating.

So this could be causing the solar ice to melt.
If this is the case, then our solar magnetosphere has weak spots (aka holes), and this allows solar energy to penetrate the Arctic and Antarctic polar regions. Since this is summer in Antarctica, they would be experiencing massive ice melts at this time.

Also note that these high absorptions of protons do not happen every day.
Some days have more streams of protons than at other times.
Estimated duration of these High Latitude Protons is now 2 hours 31 minutes 00:47 UTC, Dec. 29, 2013

Now the Estimated Recovery Time is 3 hours 5 minutes at 00:52 UTC, Dec. 29, 2013

Currently the Estimated Recovery Time (ERT) is 3 hours 40 minutes at 01:01 UTC, Dec. 29, 2013.
Note the continual increases as the earth turns.

Edited to add at 01:43 UTC, the ERT is 4 hours and 14 minutes.

[Maria]

Now an official explanation by NOAA:

See this video that shows a dramatic magnetic eruption near the western limb of the sun:

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2013/ ... qnjq42ubp3

• MINOR RADIATION STORM IN PROGRESS: Energetic protons are swarming around Earth on Dec. 29th following a magnetic eruption near the western limb of the sun: movie. The ongoing radiation storm ranks S1 on NOAA storm scales, which means it is a relatively minor storm with little effect on spacecraft and high-altitude aviation.

http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php ... &year=2013

CRACKLING SUNSPOT: AR1936 is waking up. The sunspot has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong eruptions, yet it has been quiet for days. Now AR1936 is beginning to crackle with flares. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash from an almost-M-class flare at 1800 UT on Dec. 28th:

Because the sunspot is facing Earth, any flares emanating from it are going to be geoeffective. So far, the extreme ultraviolet "crackles" have produced only minor waves of ionization in our planet's upper atmosphere. Earth-effects will increase, however, if the activity continues to intensify.