The sun remains spotless for now, but something is approaching the Eastern Limb in the Southern Hemisphere.
Perhaps it is only an H-alpha plage. Time will tell.
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.
NOAA posted their findings: no sunspots on the solar disc so far.
The flaring active area is still on the far side of the sun and has not rotated over to our side.
However, the GOES X-Ray Flux shows increased activity.
It is now in the A3 range. The jump in activity is obvious and
usually precedes the arrival of a new active area. By March 28,
2018, we should have a better image as the Sun turns.
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.
Belgium has admitted the presence of an active solar region on the Eastern Limb that is approaching us.
In addition, the GOES X-ray Flux earlier today at 1141 UT (4:41 AM PST) showed a high A9 solar flare
that almost broke into the B range. When I checked The Sun Today, the images seemed to be reversed,
so the new approaching active region was showing departing on the West Limb instead arriving on the East.
COMMENT: There are no sunspot regions on the visible hemisphere of the Sun
but the loops of a far side active region are observed behind the East
limb. Flaring level is very low. The chance for a C flare in the next 24
hours is estimated at 10%, mainly from the region behind the East limb.
EDIT: Looking at the solar images from today, and comparing them to the one I posted yesterday shows
that the new active region on the Eastern Limb must have disappeared, and that a new one suddenly
appeared at the Western Limb in a more southern latitude. This is not surprising as the Sun can change
from day to day.
Noteworthy: the Western Limb would be more geoeffective if a solar flare were to be unleashed than the Eastern Limb.
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.
What is happening with The Sun Today, with pictures from NASA?
The photos are obviously reversed.
Note this from Belgium:
COMMENT: There are no sunspot regions on the visible hemisphere of the Sun
but the loops of a far side active region are rotating into view at the
East limb. Flaring level is very low. The chance for a C flare in the next
24 hours is estimated at 10%, mainly from the region behind the East limb.
Today at 1636 UT (0936 PST), we had an impulsive A9.8 Solar Flare, again
almost at B levels. This was also documented at Spaceweather.com. I was
viewing this solar flare as it was happening through NOAA's GOES X-ray Flux.
The sun does not revolve backwards, yet NASA's image at The Sun Today, shows
that the active area on the Western Limb has rotated backwards. Cannot be done.
The Sun Today has posted reversed images before, so beware.
We need to verify and not accept everything seen on The Sun Today.
View these correct images directly from NASA: https://umbra.nascom.nasa.gov/newsite/images.html
Notice that the active flaring region in the SE quadrant of the solar disc is coming into view, so
the spotless streak we have had in March may be coming to an end either today or tomorrow.
Nevertheless, things are never certain during a solar minimum where active regions can quickly
decay into H-alpha plages.
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.
The sun is now active with three B class solar flares from the new active
region at the Southeastern limb of the sun. This active region is rapidly
growing and most likely will be classified as a Beta. No number has been
issued yet but the last one was AR2702, so this one might be AR2703.
Below is the GOES X-ray Flux showing three B flares rising progressively
higher and culminating in a B4.5 at 0515 UT. No doubt, we can expect a
C class solar flare. Perhaps we will have another September surprise with an
M or even an X class solar flare. Time will tell.
From Belgium, the EISN for March 30, 2018 has increased to 8 (with a range
between 1 to 15), thus breaking the long streak of spotlessness.
Notice the high standard deviation of 6.8 with all five station reports accepted.
2018 03 29 2018.240 0 0.0 21 26
2018 03 30 2018.242 8 6.8 05 05
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.
Just a few hours after I had posted the GOES X-ray Flux, the new sunspot unleashed a C class solar flare.
In fact, as I write this, a new solar flare is in progress.
For the latest Flux chart, please see: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux
In addition, Belgium's EISN/SILSO chart of Estimated Sunspot Numbers for the Month of March
has indicated that there are now approximately 12 sunspots present on the sun with a low standard
deviation of 1.9. There have been 25 station reports, of which 18 have been accepted, but 7 outliers
have been rejected. See the chart at http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot
2018 03 29 2018.240 0 0.0 25 30
2018 03 30 2018.242 12 1.9 18 25
Below is a beautiful filtered image of the sun taken on March 30, 2018 at 1741 UT (10:41 PDT)
where you can see the dark cores of the sunspots. cf. https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.
The latest comments from Belgium confirm the new sunspot as a BETA:
cf: http://www.sidc.be/products/meu/
COMMENT: Beta region NOAA AR 2703 has rotated from the East limb onto the
visible hemisphere. This region produced several B flares and a C4.5 flare
in the past 24 hours. The C4.5 flare peaked around 08:04 UT on March 30 and
an associated Type II burst was observed in Humain around 8:10 UT. An
associated CME was first observed by LASCO C2 at 8:48 UT and is not
expected to be geoeffective. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours
is estimated at 50%, mainly from AR 2703.
In addition, the current report from NOAA, confirms the solar activity coming from the new active region, AR2703.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/sola ... nt-reports
:Product: 20180330events.txt
:Created: 2018 Mar 30 1912 UT
:Date: 2018 03 30Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
#
Missing data: ////
Updated every 5 minutes.
Edited Events for 2018 Mar 30
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------4330 + 0148 //// 0206 LEA C RSP 025-173 III/2
4340 + 0254 //// 0300 LEA C RSP 025-180 III/3
4340 + 0256 0300 0302 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.7 3.2E-054350 + 0411 0415 0419 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.8 5.0E-05
4350 + 0412 //// 0417 LEA C RSP 025-180 III/24360 0445 //// 0530 LEA C RSP 025-180 III/3
4360 + 0507 0515 0521 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B4.5 2.5E-04
4360 0514 //// 0532 SVI C RSP 025-180 VI/24370 + 0722 //// 0727 LEA C RSP 025-084 III/1
4380 + 0745 //// 0811 LEA C RSP 025-180 VI/3 2703
4380 + 0757 0804 0808 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C4.6 1.6E-03 2703
4380 0800 //// 0802 SVI C RSP 025-180 V/2 2703
4380 0800 0800 0800 SVI G RBR 245 360 2703
4380 0800 0800 0800 SVI G RBR 410 170 2703
4380 0801 0802 0809 LEA 3 FLA S06E71 SF ERU 2703
4380 + 0804 //// 0828 SVI C RSP 025-050 II/2 805 27034390 1015 //// 1016 SVI C RSP 025-180 III/1
4400 1028 //// 1029 SVI C RSP 025-147 III/2
4410 + 1113 1117 1120 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.1 5.3E-05 2703
4410 + 1115 //// 1118 SVI C RSP 025-111 III/1 2703
4410 B1116 U1116 A1128 SVI 2 FLA S12E69 SF ERU 27034430 + 1321 //// 1324 SVI C RSP 025-180 III/2
4430 + 1322 1322 1322 SVI G RBR 245 2104440 1326 1327 1330 HOL 3 FLA S10E68 SF 2703
4450 + 1526 //// 1526 SVI C RSP 025-041 III/1
4460 + 1608 //// 1609 SAG C RSP 025-157 III/1
4470 + 1758 1807 1815 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.0 1.3E-04 2703
4470 1806 1817 1820 HOL 3 FLA S10E68 SF ERU 2703
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.