As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

[Maria]

AR2664 has gradually degraded to a beta. However, I would not be surprised if AR2664 gradually increases in size once again, and then flares in the B or even C range as it approaches the limb of the sun and then departs. This seems to be a pattern.

A few hours ago, this Tuesday at 2125 hours UTC (2 PM PDT), on June 27, AR2664 erupted in a mild B2.6 solar class flare.

A newly emerged Active Region, which has been softly flaring at the limb of the sun, remains without sunspots.

To view these active regions, please visit: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... 4_0171.jpg

[Maria]

Information from MOAA and Belgium reveals the slight chance of a CME, which could strike earth on July 3rd.
I have bolded the important parts.

http://www.sidc.be/products/meu/

Solar activity was at very low levels during the period. Decaying
sunspot region NOAA 2664 was the source of a long duration event (no x-ray
flare reported, but x-ray flux was at B1 level from 13UT till 18UT) during
the afternoon of 28 June. SDO EUV imagery indicated coronal dimming both to
the north and south of this active region. CACTus detected the associated
weak and slow (275-300 km/s) coronal mass ejection (CME) in LASCO/C2
difference images starting at 16:24UT, but as 2 separate CMEs. Though the
bulk of this partial halo CME (about 170 degrees angular width) is directed
to the southwest, a glancing blow cannot be excluded and may arrive around
noon on 3 July (+/- 12 hours).

The other new active region on the left limb has not produced any sunspots.

[Maria]

07-01-2017_Flatlined sun plot_goes-xray-flux.gif (12.28 KiB) Viewed 1356 times

For the month of June 2017, sunspots in active regions did not rapidly materialize nor suddenly disappear. On the contrary, the sun was unusually flatlined for most of June. Again, this is typical for those years in the Solar Minimum. Except for the occasional hyder flare, we can expect to see a lot of flatlining in the next several years or more.

Comparing the June 30, 2017 EISN plot with the July 1, 2017 rendition, there are not many changes at all.

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 06-30-2017_EISNcurrent.png (47.59 KiB) Viewed 1357 times

[Maria]

Today we had a small B-class solar flare from departing AR2664, a B3, which peaked at 1239 UT (5:39 AM PDT). No notice of any CME's yet, but if there was one, it could be geo-effective because our magnetic shield is very low during this time of a solar minimum.

Below is the report from Belgium regarding the geomagnetic field surrounding us.
http://www.sidc.be/products/meu/ for July 2,2017 at 0030UT.

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with active episodes
at Dourbes during the 15-18UT and 06-09UT intervals. Kp was at minor
storming during the 06-09UT interval, and at active levels from 09-12UT. A
glancing blow from the 28 June CME is possible late on 2 or on 3 July,
likely followed by the particle stream from the negative CH. This may
result in further active geomagnetic conditions, with a chance on a minor
storming episode.

Here is the confirmation from NOAA regarding the B3.1 solar flare: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar ... nt-reports

Edited Events for 2017 Jul 02
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7510 + 1223 1239 1259 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.1 4.9E-04 2664

[Maria]

Even though Active Region AR2664 has departed this visible side of the sun, it is still actively flaring, even more so than it did a few days ago.

Edited Events for 2017 Jul 03
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7520 + 0617 0621 0625 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.5 9.8E-05 2664
7520 0620 U0621 A0631 SVI 3 FLA S00W87 SF ERU

7540 0621 0621 0624 LEA 3 FLA N02W89 SF

7530 + 0633 0637 0639 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B8.0 1.5E-04 2664

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar ... nt-reports

[Maria]

An M1.3 Solar Flare occurred at 1615 UT or 9:15 AM PDT. followed by some more B-class solar flares.

07-03-2017_impulsive M1.3 _1615 UT_plus Hail Mary B flares following_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (10.97 KiB) Viewed 1346 times

We do not know what Active Region produced this impulsive flare, but the sun has been very active.
Above is the plot showing the wave forms along with the M1.3 spike.

Belgium says that a new active region, south of AR2664 on the right limb, could produce C-Flares.

NOAA says that an active region, AR2663, might be returning at the western limb (left side) of the sun. It was formerly a Beta-Gamma with a structure which could have produced an M-Flare, but never did. Times change. For some reason, the other side of the sun apparently rejuvenates these active regions, but when these active regions face the earth once again, they tend to decline. This appears to be preventative as we could have been wiped out many times. Personally, I think our angels are protecting us.

Here is some data from NOAA:

# Edited Events for 2017 Jul 03
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7520 + 0617 0621 0625 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.5 9.8E-05 2664
7520 0620 U0621 A0631 SVI 3 FLA S00W87 SF ERU

7540 0621 0621 0624 LEA 3 FLA N02W89 SF

7530 + 0633 0637 0639 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B8.0 1.5E-04 2664
7530 0633 0635 0648 SVI 3 FLA S00W87 SF ERU

7570 0634 0635 0642 LEA 3 FLA N02W89 SF

7550 + 0706 0710 0712 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.9 3.6E-05 2664

7560 + 0728 0731 0734 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.3 2.8E-05 2664

7580 + 0847 0900 0908 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.4 2.0E-04 2664

7590 + 0943 0950 1004 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.2 2.3E-04 2664

7600 + 1031 1051 1103 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.7 4.4E-04 2664

7610 + 1121 1125 1129 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.6 8.8E-05 2664

7620 + 1236 1247 1253 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B4.0 2.8E-04

7630 + 1305 //// 1305 SVI C RSP 025-060 III/1

7640 + 1331 1335 1337 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B6.2 1.0E-04

7650 + 1537 1615 1618 G15 5 XRA 1-8A M1.3 4.3E-03
7650 + 1615 1615 1615 SAG G RBR 245 140
7650 1615 1615 1615 PAL G RBR 410 110
7650 + 1616 //// 1618 SAG C RSP 103-180 III/1

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar ... nt-reports

Notice that NOAA has neither attributed the B6.2 nor the M1.3 to AR2664, so what exploded?

[Maria]

Breaking News from spaceweather.com

The Case of the Vanishing Sunspot

NO FIREWORKS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY: An emerging sunspot that unleashed a surprising M1.3-class flare on July 3rd has already vanished. Now the sun is completely blank--no sunspots. The chance of a significant solar flare on the 4th of July is no more than 1%, according to NOAA forecasters.

http://www.spaceweather.com

Could this have been AR2663? NOAA still is predicting that AR2663 could reappear sometime between now and July 6.