Solar Cycle 25 and the coming Maunder Minimum

Non-political secular news and anything else (within the boundaries of Christian morality and good taste) that is not on-topic in any other section. Any politically charged material must be posted in the private Political and Social Issues forum; please PM admin for access. All Forum Rules apply. No polemics. No heated discussions. No name-calling.
User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: Solar Cycle 25 and the coming Maunder Minimum

Post by Maria »

What does this current solar minimum have in store for us? According to Spaceweather.com, while there will be less sunspots, there will be an increase in coronal holes like the one shown in the image below.

Image

This is a "coronal hole," a vast region in the sun's atmosphere where magnetic fields open up and allow solar wind to escape. They look dark in ultraviolet images because the hot glowing plasma normally contained there is missing. In this case, the plasma is making a beeline for Earth.

Some readers have asked, how can we have a geomagnetic storm during solar minimum? It happens all the time. Sunspots, whose counts define the solar cycle, are not the only source of storms. When sunspots vanish, coronal holes replace them as a primary source of solar activity. Studies show that coronal holes not only open more frequently, but also last longer when sunspots are absent. During the last solar minimum in 2007-2009, one coronal hole stayed open for 27 consecutive solar rotations. As the sun slowly turned on its axis, that hole fire-hosed Earth with a stream of solar wind almost once a month for nearly two years. Explosive sunspots make stronger storms than the relatively gentle breezes that emerge from coronal holes, but geomagnetic storms never go away, not even during solar minimum.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: Solar Cycle 25 and the coming Maunder Minimum

Post by Maria »

Oh, the advantages of having a maunder minimum: Better violins and better music.

The Maunder Minimum occurred during the depths of the Little Ice Age, a period of feeble summers and bitingly cold winters, war, pestilence and famine. It wasn’t all bad: rivers like the Thames in London froze so thickly they could accommodate Ice Fairs; and it’s said that the slow tree growth induced by the cold gave the wood in Stradivarius violins their special timbre. On the whole, though, a descent into a new mini Ice Age would be massively debilitating both to the global economy and people’s living standards. Since the Little Ice Age ended in the middle of the Nineteenth century, we have all got used to the comforts and agricultural advantages (such as being able to grow wheat in more northerly latitudes) of living through a period of global warming. A second Little Ice Age will come as a very nasty shock.

https://www.breitbart.com/big-governmen ... o-silence/

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: Solar Cycle 25 and the coming Maunder Minimum

Post by Maria »

Below is the smoothed ISN graph just issued August 2018 from the Royal Observatory of Belgium. The CM prediction, favored by Belgium, shows a steep rise leading into the next solar maximum, which they predict will start in the early spring months of 2019, consistent with the Global Warmist theory. However, for the last year, the CM prediction has been consistently wrong. Spaceweather.com has an article written by Dr. Tony Philips which disputes Belgium's Combined Method (CM) predictions. He believes that we are going in for a much deeper solar minimum that will last a few more years or even longer.

monthly-sunspot-numbers-smoothed-2018-08.png
monthly-sunspot-numbers-smoothed-2018-08.png (139.56 KiB) Viewed 8092 times

Now compare this chart's CM predictions with ones from previous years, and you can see the discrepancies:
http://www.euphrosynoscafe.com/forum/vi ... t=7#p73413

For more information, please visit https://www.lewrockwell.com/2018/08/no_ ... ing-world/

Here is another article that may be of interest: https://www.iceagenow.info/temperatures ... 000-years/

Here is the latest August 2018 Combined Method (CM) from Belgium.Image
Notice how they are predicting a rapid increase in sunspot numbers starting in the early spring months of 2019,

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: Solar Cycle 25 and the coming Maunder Minimum

Post by Maria »

Here is a very interesting article that explains the differences between a solar minimum and a solar maximum. A high school student could probably read this article and understand it with its excellent charts and illustrations.

What to expect in a Grand Solar Minimum. How does an increase in galactic cosmic rays affect the Earth’s climate and also tectonic activity?

Here is a simplified description of the basic mechanism:

A solar maximum is the period within the 11-year solar cycle of high solar magnetic field and high sunspot count. Sunspots are highly magnetic and visually dark spots or ‘holes’ in the photosphere of the sun, where solar flares can erupt.

A solar minimum is the low activity trough of the 11-year solar cycle (Schwabe Cycle). A Grand Solar Minimum is a period of several successive very low Schwabe Cycles, usually coinciding with phases of climate disruption and – in the long run -cooling. An example is the Maunder Minimum (c. 1645 and 1715) that coincided with the coldest phase of the Little Ice Age. The Little Ice Age, from which we have been emerging since c. 1850, was the coldest period of at least the last 8,000 years, possibly the entire Holocene. Grand Solar Minima recur in clusters roughly every 200-400 years. 27 Grand Minima have been identified during the Holocene (Usoskin et al. 2007). Thus, we were in Grand Solar Minimum about 1/6 of the total time.

The sun emits a magnetic field through the solar wind (flow of charged particles) that reaches as far as the outer planets, this region of the sun’s influence is called the heliosphere. . . .

Please click this link to read the rest of the article: https://abruptearthchanges.com/2018/01/ ... smic-rays/

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: Solar Cycle 25 and the coming Maunder Minimum

Post by Maria »

Spaceweather.com has an Interesting analysis of what this solar minimum has in store for us.

Below is the most current image of the sun with three solar holes visible. I do not know if this image is dynamic or static.
If it is a dynamic picture (ever changing), then I will need to edit it out later.
View current solar images at http://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/

Image

Already we have had many streams of solar winds that are causing interferences with radio communications. Ham Radio operators are having difficulty communicating because of the increase in static.

See this post from http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php ... &year=2018

A SIGN OF SOLAR MINIMUM: HOLES IN THE SUN'S ATMOSPHERE During solar minimum, sunspots disappear. This brings a temporary end to solar flares and coronal mass ejections--the explosive triggers of space weather. But ... as sunspots disappear, holes begin to open in the sun's atmosphere, spewing solar wind ...

Image

This is a coronal hole--a place in the sun's atmosphere where magnetic fields open up and allow solar wind to escape. Streams of solar wind flowing from these holes lash Earth's magnetic field, causing geomagnetic storms. ...

Studies show that coronal holes not only open more frequently when sunspots are absent, but also last longer. During the last solar minimum in 2007-2009, one coronal hole stayed open for 27 consecutive solar rotations. As the sun slowly turned on its axis, that hole fire-hosed Earth with a stream of solar wind almost once a month for nearly two years. For comparison, this coronal hole has only been around five times. ...

Sometimes the leading edges of solar wind streams from coronal holes contain CIRs--that is, co-rotating interaction regions. CIRs are like mini-CMEs. They contain shock-like density gradients and magnetic fields that can do a good job sparking G1 and G2-class geomagnetic storms. Such a CIR is en route to Earth now, prompting NOAA forecasters to issue a minor Geomagnetic Storm Watch (G1-class) for Nov. 3rd and 4th.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

Post Reply