Solar Cycle 25 and the coming Maunder Minimum

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Maria
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Solar Cycle 25 and the coming Maunder Minimum

Post by Maria »

Climatologists and Astrophysicists around the globe are predicting that we are going into a mini-ice age also known as a Maunder Minimum.

This can be seen in the predictions of the two NASA graphs below as attachments in this post and in the one following.

solar cycle-10 com radio flux 2008-2015 prediction.gif
solar cycle-10 com radio flux 2008-2015 prediction.gif (217.19 KiB) Viewed 9775 times

In the 2008 solar cycle prediction shown above, the graph falls short of reality as NASA had predicted that Solar Cycle 24 should have ended around 2015. It did not, as 2015 has been quite active with M- and X-class solar flares with plenty of sunspots. NOAA and NASA scientists also predicted that Solar Cycle would follow a similar curve as did Solar Cycle 23. Again, that prediction simply did not materialize.

Solar Cycle 23 was a little longer in duration as it ended in September 2009, not September 2008 as predicted. Thus Solar Cycle 23 consisted of 12 years, not the 11 years as predicted.

Solar Cycle 24 has been followed its own gradual ascent with a shallow double peak. Note that the 2008 prediction showed a steeper peak that did not occur. In 2015, we are now having a gradual descent that is not predicted to end until four to six years later by 2019 or even 2021. (See the next graph in the following post.)

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Maria
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 and the coming Maunder Minimum

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If you draw a straight line from the peak of Solar Cycle 23 through the peak of Solar Cycle 24, you can see that Solar Cycle 25 might not materialize at all, but may become a Maunder Minimum.

Since the Sun provides energy for earth, and is the main provider of global warming, we could be in for a cooling cycle like that which occurred in the mid 17th century when people could ice skate on the Thames River in Britain.

References:

http://science.jrank.org/pages/4184/Mau ... nimum.html

The Maunder minimum is the name given to a period of extreme solar inactivity that occurred between 1645 and 1710. Of particular interest is that this period of inactivity corresponds closely to one of the coldest periods of the so-called "Little Ice Age" in Europe, a time of long, cold winters that caused severe hardships in the pre-industrial revolution world. This has led scientists to extensively study the possible influences of solar activity on terrestrial climate, as well as examine other stars for evidence of activity cycle behavior similar to the Sun's.

...

Not all activity cycles are the same length, with longer cycles (12-14 years) seeming to indicate cooler global temperatures than the short (9-10 year) cycles. It is very difficult to assess the effect of even recent solar cycles on global climate, let alone those from the Maunder minimum period, because of the relatively short time span for which detailed observations exist, and because climate records become sparse to nonexistent as one looks back more than a century or so.

http://news.yahoo.com/mini-ice-age-comi ... 44720.html

Valentina Zharkova, a professor of mathematics at Northumbria University in the United Kingdom, used a new model of the sun's solar cycle, which is the periodic change in solar radiation, sunspots and other solar activity over a span of 11 years, to predict that "solar activity will fall by 60 percent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the 'mini ice age' that began in 1645," according to a statement.

At the National Astronomy meeting in Llanduno, north Wales last week, Zharkova said that a series of solar phenomena will lead to a "Maunder Minimum," which refers to the seven decades, from 1645 to 1715, when the sun's surface ceased its heat-releasing magnetic storms and coincided with the Little Ice Age, a period of chillier temperatures, from around 1550 to 1850 in Europe, North America and Asia, according to NASA. [Top 10 Ways to Destroy Planet Earth]

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solar-cycle-10-cm-radio-flux as of June 2015.gif
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Maria
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 and the coming Maunder Minimum

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This article below is an interesting read.

http://joannenova.com.au/2015/07/solar- ... r-minimum/

During the Maunder Minimum (MM), British observers did not cite the presence of auroras.

The absence of auroral sightings in Great Britain during the MM is even more extraordinary when one considers the effects of the secular change in the geomagnetic field. For example, using a spline of the IGRF (InternationalGeomagnetic Reference Field, http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/IAGA/ vmod/igrf.html) model after 1900 with the gufm1 model (Jackson et al., 2000) before 1900 we find the geomagnetic latitude of Halley’s observatory in Oxford was 60.7◦ in 1703 and Edinburgh was at 63.4◦. Auroral occurrence statistics were taken in Great Britain between 1952 and 1975, and of these years the lowest annual mean sunspot number was 4.4 in 1954. Even during this low solar activity year there were 169 auroral nights observed at the magnetic latitude that Edinburgh had during the MM and 139 at the magnetic latitude that Oxford had during the MM (Paton, 1959). In other words, The British Isles were at the ideal latitudes for observing aurora during the MM and yet the number reported was zero. This is despite some careful and methodical observations revealed by the notebooks of several scientists: for example, Halley’s notebooks regularly and repeatedly use the term “clear skies” which make it inconceivable that he would not have noted an aurora had it been present. Halley’s failure to find auroral sightings in the decades before 1716 is far from unique.

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Maria
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 and the coming Maunder Minimum

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Here is a plot showing sunspot numbers from 1954 to 2016.

Note how our recent solar cycle 24 is the lowest one in recent years. The years 1958-1959 had more than twice the sunspot numbers of 2014.

Image

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Re: Solar Cycle 25 and the coming Maunder Minimum

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Interesting ! I was just thinking about that Maunder Minimum about which Maria has spoken over the while.
Then see this post. Sunspots are good or bad ? I can't remember.

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Re: Solar Cycle 25 and the coming Maunder Minimum

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Sunspots are neither good nor bad. They are a fact of life on the surface of our sun, which is an imperfect unstable star that gives us life and light. For without our sun's energies, we would surely die. And similarly, the Son of God, Christ-God, the Creator and Light of Righteousness, also gives us Life and Light, and without His Divine Energies, we would surely also die.

We read about the fall of man, and have to ask, was the world perfect at one time? Was the sun stable at one time? Genesis relates that the lifetime of man slowly decreased over the ages, for Adam and Eve and his immediate descendants lived close to a thousand years, but now we can expect to live 70 years or 100 if we are fortunate and can live to be healthy at that increased age.

Anyway, my dad, may his memory be eternal, who was an astronomer said that our sun is becoming more unstable. It is no longer a young sun. Age wise, it still has many thousands or millions of years that it can provide light. If we look at the Carrington event in the late 1800s, during which a huge sunspot exploded and gave birth to a CME (Coronal Mass Ejection), that electrocuted many teletype operators who worked for Western Union, we can see that this event could have been the "Hand of God" serving notice to mankind that He is still in charge of the universe, much like He caused chaos in the language of men when mankind dared to build a temple reaching to the Heavens. Western Union at that time was attempting to build a vast network of telegraph communication cables that linked the world. Now we have this fragile internet system that also links this world, and our electrical grids that are also very vulnerable to CMEs. Yes, there are fixes to insure that the electrical grids will not fail, but few states, only Texas comes to mind, have implemented any security measures. So, if another CME from the sun were to strike us as it did at Carrington, all electrical sources could be wiped out and unprecedented disasters could await us. Food services would definitely be wiped out due to lack of refrigeration. Another "Hand of God"? More likely, this would be a man-made situation as man now knows how to remedy this situation, but has not implemented any measures. Money raised in California, for example, to address this problem, has been systematically drained through scheming men who have embezzled millions of dollars in funds and then have fled to Mexico and elsewhere.

These are just my thoughts. Feel free to correct me.

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Re: Solar Cycle 25 and the coming Maunder Minimum

Post by Barbara »

I didn't know any of this. Let alone could think of correcting you, Maria !

Amazing that this was your post number 5800 here ! Truly an ArchArchon, if such a term could exist !

Plus your post appeared at a tidy 5:55 pm.

So despite the threat from the CME or any other type of disruption of the electrical grid, we can conclude that for the time being, some things at least are running smoothly and are harmoniously timed.

I had never heard of the Western Union event. I hope the teletype operators were merely given a shock, rather than killed. I quite agree, though, that it does like a WARNING from God to Americans to rein in their hubris. Not a random event at all.

I am glad you have the same interpretation. It's rare to find anywhere today, except forums like ours.

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