As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Luke
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Luke » Thu 23 November 2017 6:09 pm

The sun's way of wishing us Happy Thanksgiving.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 25 November 2017 2:09 am

Look at the beautiful auroras being generated during this time of spotlessness. This photo was taken on November 22, 2017, and is posted at http://www.spaceweather.com

Image

"Ironically, our guests stopped taking pictures," says Bergli. "They were awestruck and frozen to the spot by the incredible pink and green lights overhead."

This outburst was powered by a stream of solar wind flowing from a hole in the sun's atmosphere. Such holes are common during Solar Minimum, and they require no sunspots to form. That's why auroras continue throughout the 11-year solar cycle.

The pink color of the outburst tells us something interesting about the solar wind on Nov. 22nd: it seems to have been unusually penetrating. Most auroras are green–a verdant glow caused by energetic particles from space hitting oxygen atoms 100 km to 300 km above Earth's surface. Pink appears when the energetic particles descend lower than usual, striking nitrogen molecules at the 100 km level and below.

In recent winters, big displays of pink and white auroras have coincided with spotless suns often enough to make observers wonder if there is a connection. If so, more outbursts are in the offing as the sun continues its plunge toward a deep Solar Minimum. Stay tuned for pink!



A recently developing active geo-centered region can be seen in the Northern Hemisphere. Take a look at The Sun Now. This latest photo was taken at 0115 UT, so it was not mentioned in the NOAA forecast at 0030 UT.

I cannot link to this image as it is dynamic and would be against forum rules to do so. Will this break the sun's spotless trend? Or will this area decay and become yet another plage?

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 25 November 2017 4:08 am

The first report has just filed at the Royal Observatory at Belgium. It shows 12 sunspots in this new active region, which has still to be numbered by Belgium or NASA.

Review this dynamic plot at http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

As individual astronomers submit their reports, average Estimated Sunspot Numbers will be generated, so the initial report of 12 could change as this active region in the Northern Hemisphere of the Sun increases, decays, or remains stable over the next 24 hours.
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 25 November 2017 5:57 pm

From the Royal Observatory at Belgium 1230 UT Nov. 25, 2017
http://www.sidc.be/products/meu/

COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been quiet. No
significant flares have been recorded. All Active Regions (AR) have shown
low levels of activity.
No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)
have been detected. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at
background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to
remain low over the next 24 hours with a low probability of C-class flares.
The solar wind speed fluctuated between 350 and 450 km/s over the past 24
hours, peaking around 00:00 UT this morning. The total magnetic field
strength has fluctuated between 3 and 10 nT, peaking around 00:00 UT this
morning. The Bz component has fluctuated between -6 and +8 nT. Geomagnetic
conditions ranged between Kp index 0-4 (NOAA) and local K index 0-5
(Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. The enhanced solar wind speed and
negative Bz this morning resulted in a peak in geo-magnetic conditions
(K=5).
A small transient coronal hole has just passed the central meridian
and will enhance solar wind speeds in a couple of days. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 016, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.


The increased solar wind speed and unsettled geomagnetic conditions means
the possibility of auroras at the North pole and radio interference.

Observing the sun at https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg
reveals that this new Northern sunspot has increased in area with a much
larger dark core. However, http://www.spaceweather still shows a spotless sun.
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sun 26 November 2017 1:32 am

From NOAA, we have received confirmation of another Active Region,
AR2689, which has been labeled as having a Beta magnetic configuration.
It is indeed located in the Northern Hemisphere. It is geo-centered.

http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/ ... 126SRS.txt

:Product: 1126SRS.txt
:Issued: 2017 Nov 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 330 Issued at 0030Z on 26 Nov 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 25 Nov
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 25/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2689 N13W08 108 0020 Cso 05 03 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 25/2400Z Nov
Nmbr Location Lo
2687 S09W80 180
II. Regions Due to Return 26 Nov to 28 Nov
Nmbr Lat Lo
None


Another Southern Hemispheric Active Region appears to be headed
our way in the next few days. This also could be a hyderflare.
Look at the huge blast on the Southeastern limb.
Attachments
solar image_11-25-2017_2236UT_Flaring on far side of sun_Possible AR arriving.jpg
solar image_11-25-2017_2236UT_Flaring on far side of sun_Possible AR arriving.jpg (71.3 KiB) Viewed 620 times
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sun 26 November 2017 6:02 pm

The above photo from Saturday, November 25, 2017, shows a
hyderflare that erupted and released a CME. A video of this long
lasting hyderflare from the Southeastern limb can be seen at
http://www.spaceweather.com.

Today's comments from the Royal Observatory at Belgium:

COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been quiet. No
significant flares have been recorded. All Active Regions (AR) have shown
low levels of activity. A small filament eruption occurred near disk centre
at around 04:00 UT on 2017-Nov-25, Coronagraph imagery suggests the bulk of
the ejection headed to the East of the Sun-Earth line and only a glancing
blow, if any, can be expected.
If so, this is anticipated to arrive at
Earth late on 2017-Nov-28. However, projection effects make it difficult to
ascertain an accurate speed. The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at
background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to
remain low over the next 24 hours with a low probability of C-class flares.
The solar wind speed been been decreasing from 400 to 320 km/s over the
past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated between 0
and 5 nT, peaking around 00:00 UT this morning. The Bz component has
fluctuated between positive and negative, between -4 and +5 nT. Geomagnetic
conditions ranged between Kp index 0-2 (NOAA) and local K index 0-2
(Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A small transient coronal hole has just
passed the central meridian and may enhance solar wind speeds in a couple
of days. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 018, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Mon 27 November 2017 3:28 am

This in from NOAA. Beta Active Region 2689 has increased slowly in size, but remains stable.

:Issued: 2017 Nov 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 331 Issued at 0030Z on 27 Nov 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 26 Nov
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 26/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2689 N13W21 108 0060 Cao 06 05 Beta


http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/ ... 127SRS.txt

Compare the Nov. 27 report above with that of Nov. 26 below.

SRS Number 330 Issued at 0030Z on 26 Nov 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 25 Nov
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 25/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2689 N13W08 108 0020 Cso 05 03 Beta
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.


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