As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

New AR2662 on the left side of the sun and the unnamed geocentered sprawling sunspot complex both continue to grow in size.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Just as I reported earlier, there is a new fast growing geocentered sunspot group (not yet numbered by NOAA).
AR2663 to be appears to be a beta, and as noted below was responsible for a B-class solar flare yesterday.
AR 2662 persists on the left side of the sun as an alpha.

The x-ray plot rose in intensity for a few hours, but has now declined to A levels again. Of course, that could change.

Catania reports two sunspot groups on the visible side of the
solar disc, group 32 (NOAA AR 2662) and group 33 (not numbered by NOAA).
Only reported flare in the last 24 hours was B1.9 flare which originated
from the Catania sunspot group 33 (peaked at 19:07 UT on June 14).
All the observed CMEs, during the last 24 hours, were narrow and will not
arrive to the Earth.

http://www.sidc.be/products/meu/

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

A new active region, AR2664, recently appeared on the left limb of the sun. First it was classified as a Beta, but then it quickly decayed into an alpha. Now, this active region has numerous small sunspots surrounding it that are growing in size minute by minute. Will it continue to increase as it approaches the center of our view of the sun (geo-centered)?

Please click to view this image of the sun, which is a dynamic link.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

This active region could expand, or it could quickly decline into a plage. As we are in a solar minimum, many of these active regions gradually disappear over several days, so they do not flare or bombard us with any Coronal Mass Ejections (CME).

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

AR2664 is increasing in size as new sunspots develop around it, especially on the leading edge.

Click this dynamic link to see the latest image of the sun (updated about ever 15 minutes).
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

In approximately two days, this Active Region 2664 will be geo-centered, so if it continues to grow in size and in strength, and if it does erupt and emit a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), this CME might strike the earth.

However, right now, the x-ray flux plots have flatlined in the A range with no B, C, M, or X flaring.
Click here to see the plots: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

This apparent solar inactivity is a very common attribute, in fact one might even say that it is a boring attribute, of being in a solar minimum. However, filaments from the sun can suddenly erupt and also emit a CME, and if a hyder flare does occur, it could affect the earth because our magnetic shield is very low at this time of the sun cycle.

Read more about hyder flares below:
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Educational/2/4/1

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Active Region (AR) 2664 is officially now a Beta as it approaches the central view of the sun.

Below I have listed NOAA comments from the last three days so that you can see the progression or regression of these two Active Regions. Reference: http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu ... s/SRS.html

I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 24/2400Z [June 25, 2017 at 0030 UT]
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2662 N13W77 051 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha [at right limb and is almost invisible]
2664 N18E21 313 0070 Cso 05 07 Beta [leading edge is increasing in sunspots

I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 23/2400Z [June 24, 2017 at 0030 UT]
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2662 N13W65 052 0020 Hrx 01 01 Alpha [decaying at right limb]
2664 N18E35 312 0070 Hsx 02 01 Alpha [slightly increasing in area]

I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z [June 23, 2017 at 0030 UT]
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2662 N13W51 051 0030 Hsx 01 02 Alpha
2664 N17E47 312 0050 Hsx 01 01 Alpha

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Active Region (AR) 2664 has been increasing at a steady pace. It is now geo-centered, but no CME was emitted per NOAA.

So far it has only produced one B-1 class solar flare.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Update: Beta-gamma AR2664 remains steady as the sun revolves. X-ray plots show an increased level of activity in the high A range, but rarely entering into B-class levels. In fact, a very gradual B-1 flare just occurred around 1950 UT (12:50 PM PDT today. Chances of M-class flares remain very low (less than one percent) per NOAA.

Here is an excerpt from Belgium's daily report for June 27, 2017: http://www.sidc.be/products/meu/

Solar activity was at very low levels during the period. NOAA 2664
gained some sunspot area in its northwestern portion, but remained quiet.
An active region is rotating over the east limb, but is currently still
spotless. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in
available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10MeV proton flux was at
nominal levels.

Quiet flaring conditions are expected, with a small chance on a C-class
flare.

Earth is under the waning influence of a coronal hole wind stream. Solar
wind speed peaked around 13:00UT with a brief spike of about 610 km/s
(DSCOVR). The overall wind speed gradually declined from its initial 570
km/s to around 470 km/s at the end of the period. Bz fluctuated between -3
and +3 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was mostly directed away from
the Sun. A small positive equatorial coronal hole (CH) was at the central
meridian on 25 June.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, and is expected to
remain so. The particle stream from the small CH may briefly enhance
geomagnetic conditions on 29 or 30 June, with a small chance on an active
episode.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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