As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 332 Issued at 0030Z on 28 Nov 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 27 Nov
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 27/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2689 N13W34 108 0060 Cso 05 05 Beta

Beta AR2689 appears to be decaying. This Active Region (producing only B-Class Solar Flares) is now located in the NW region of the solar disc and can be seen as a bright area in the image produced immediately below.

Meanwhile, a huge and very unusual circular magnetic filament has been seen in the Southern hemisphere of the sun since November 22. It is now near the SW limb of the sun, where, if we have a hyderflare and CME, the CME would be geo-directed. This picture was taken at 0112UT on November 28, 2017.

solar image_11-28-2017_circular magnetic filament near SW limb.jpg
solar image_11-28-2017_circular magnetic filament near SW limb.jpg (14.62 KiB) Viewed 1215 times

In addition to this unusual circular magnetic filament, there is a massive coronal hole (seen in black) located in the Southern Hemisphere not too far from this magnetic filament. This coronal hole is expected to cause radio interference on earth due to high solar winds coming from this hole.

solar image_11-28-2017_huge coronal hole in Southern Hemisphere.jpg
solar image_11-28-2017_huge coronal hole in Southern Hemisphere.jpg (132.22 KiB) Viewed 1215 times

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Comments from the Royal Observatory in Belgium: http://www.sidc.be/index.php

INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2017 Nov 28 12:30UTC

Solar activity was at very low levels. NOAA 2689 is the only visible
sunspot group and is gradually decaying
. The prominent 40 degrees long
filament in the SW quadrant was quiet. No earth-directed coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels.

Quiet flaring conditions are expected, with a slight chance on an isolated
C-class flare.

Earth was under the influence of the wind stream from the extensions of the
negative polar coronal hole (CH). Solar wind speed peaked near 490 km/s
around 14UT and again around 01UT (DSCOVR), ending the period with values
around 440 km/s (ACE). Bz was mostly positive, except for a period from
23UT till 01UT with sustained negative values around -8 nT. The
interplanetary magnetic field was mostly directed towards the Sun.

The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period, except for the
00-03UT interval when Kp was at active levels. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected as Earth remains under the influence from the weak
CH [coronal hole] wind stream.
A glancing blow from the 25 November CME late on 28 or on
29 November may add to the geomagnetic unrest and result in unsettled to
active conditions.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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As the Royal Observatory in Belgium has stated and as NOAA documents, Beta AR2689 continues to decay.

The Estimated International Sunspot Number for today stands at 16 per Belgium.
In addition, x-ray plots from NOAA show continual flaring in the A-Class levels.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 333 Issued at 0030Z on 29 Nov 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 28 Nov
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2689 N12W49 110 0060 Cao 04 04 Beta

http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/ ... 129SRS.txt

Below is a recent shot of our very active sun.

The very dark and large black areas at the southern and northern
hemispheres are coronal holes from which solar winds emerge
that can cause tremendous radio interference.

The bright spots in the NW area of the sun is Active Region Beta 2689.

And finally what look like crevices or rivers are magnetic filaments which float
above the solar surface and could burst, form a hyderflare, and then deliver a
CME. This current solar image has multiple magnetic filaments, some of which
have unusual circular shapes. One such circular shapes is located on the NW
limb of the solar disc, and is currently rotating onto the far side of the sun.

Attachments
solar image_11-28-2017_0210UT_sunspots, magnetic filaments, and coronal holes.jpg
solar image_11-28-2017_0210UT_sunspots, magnetic filaments, and coronal holes.jpg (135.61 KiB) Viewed 1206 times

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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55% chance of G1-class geomagnetic storms on Nov. 29th when a CME is expected to sideswipe Earth's magnetic field. There's more: A fissure in the sun's atmosphere (depicted below) is spewing solar wind into space, and the stream of gaseous material could reach Earth on Nov. 29th as well. Polar auroras are likely in response to the combined effect of the CME and the solar wind. Free: Aurora Alerts.

What happens when a solar wind stream meets a CME? Scroll down for answers.

Image

There are two possibilities: 1. The CME might act like a snowplow, scooping up material in the solar wind stream before it reaches Earth. This would allow the CME to jolt our planet's magnetosphere with a load of extra scooped-up mass. 2. On the other hand, the solar wind stream might lag behind the CME, providing the second blow of a one-two punch. Either way, Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras in the nights ahead.

Comments above are from www.spaceweather.com

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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AR2689 is currently revolving around to the far side of the sun.

It has decayed to an Alpha. Will the sun become spotless?

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 335 Issued at 0030Z on 01 Dec 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Nov
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2689 N13W78 112 0040 Hrx 02 01 Alpha

http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/ ... 201SRS.txt

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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This is an interesting comment from Belgium's Royal Observatory:

INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2017 Nov 30 12:30UTC

Solar activity was at very low levels. Decaying sunspot region NOAA 2689
was quiet and is approaching the NW limb. It has developed a filament in
its spotless trailing section.
The 40 degrees long filament is rounding the
SW limb quietly. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was at nominal levels.

A magnetic filament can burst delivering a CME. When an active region includes a filament, then it can become very explosive with interactive bursts of energy. Notice the interactive loops in the filament on the western limb.

solar image_12-01-2017_AR2689 leaving Western limb with trailing filament.jpg
solar image_12-01-2017_AR2689 leaving Western limb with trailing filament.jpg (138.04 KiB) Viewed 1185 times

Will tomorrow, December 2, show a spotless sun with the departure of NOAA 2689?

So far, scientists reporting to SILSO show an estimated international sunspot number [EISN] of 10 for December 1, 2017.
http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Recent comment from Belgium's Royal Observatory

INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2017 Dec 01 12:30UTC

Solar activity was at very low levels. Sunspot region NOAA 2689 has become
nearly spotless and will rotate over the NW limb later today. It produced a
small B1 flare around 14UT (PROBA2/LYRA), and its group filament erupted
between 01:30UT and 03:00UT. The 40 degrees long filament rounded the SW
limb quietly. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed
in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
at nominal levels.

Scientists are weighing in now.
Today, December 1, 2017 appears to be spotless with the outlook of a largely spotless month for December.

Here is the plot for the EISN (Estimated International Sunspot Numbers) for the month of November.

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 11-30-2017_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 11-30-2017_EISNcurrent.png (42.34 KiB) Viewed 1180 times
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 12-01-2017_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 12-01-2017_EISNcurrent.png (38.82 KiB) Viewed 1180 times

Above is the adjusted plot. Note that this is the lowest EISN for this solar minimum
The average is only about 6 sunspots per day. Last month, October, it was down to 13.
We are quickly headed for a deep solar minimum, which may be the lowest in 300 years or more.
Plan ahead for global cooling.

  • Get your greenhouses ready.
    Stock up with warm clothing.
    And put in extra insulation.
    If possible, move toward the equatorial latitudes.
    Avoid the polar or subpolar latitudes.
    Avoid areas near volcanoes as they may erupt.

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