As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

We have had a string of spotless days, but the GOES X-ray Flux below for April 10, 2018 through April 12, 2018, shows otherwise.
With one or two possible active regions: one on April 10 and another on April 12, 2018, both creating waves.

04-10-2018_Fleeting bipolar sunspot makes waves_goes-xray-flux.gif
04-10-2018_Fleeting bipolar sunspot makes waves_goes-xray-flux.gif (12.99 KiB) Viewed 914 times

Here is the latest information from the Royal Observatory in Belgium:
http://www.sidc.be/index.php

COMMENT: The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours. The
visible solar disc is spotless and no flare has been recorded. Quiet
flaring conditions are expected for the next 24-hour period.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection has been observed. The greater than
10 MeV solar protons flux remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours
and is expected to remain so.

The Earth remains affected by the solar wind connected to the equatorial
coronal hole (which has crossed the central meridian on April 05). The
solar wind speed has stabilized around 510-530 km/s over the past 24 hours.
The total magnetic field strength remained below 5 nT, and the Bz component
was fluctuating between -5 and +5 nT. The enhanced solar wind conditions
are expected to persist for the next 24-hour period and until the influence
of the HSS associated with the coronal hole decay.

Geomagnetic conditions have been unsettled over the past 24 hours: Kp index
was observed ranging between 0-3 (NOAA), and local K index between 0-2
(Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. Due to the ongoing enhancement of the
solar wind, unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected, short episode of
active geomagnetic conditions cannot be excluded, especially if the total
magnetic field strength slightly increased and the Bz component remains
negative for long period of time.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 007, BASED ON 13 STATIONS.

While international astronomers are divided, they generally agree that there is a tiny active region with seven sunspots. However, NOAA has not shown any such active regions since April 1, 2018, when AR 2703 made a quick appearance and then quickly faded away. This unnumbered new region has probably very quickly decayed into an H-alpha plage. Perhaps by tomorrow it will resurrect.

Indeed, it has already renewed itself. Viewing the solar disc at The Sun Today at 19:45 UT (12:45 PM PDT) shows an active region of 4 tiny sunspot areas.

solar image_04-12-2018_new active region near SE limb.jpg
solar image_04-12-2018_new active region near SE limb.jpg (14.98 KiB) Viewed 914 times

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 102 Issued at 0030Z on 12 Apr 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 11 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 11/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 11/2400Z Apr
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 12 Apr to 14 Apr
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

The solar image posted above is too tiny to see any details as the system here will not allow me to post a larger image.

Please view the image directly at The Sun Today at https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg
However, please realize that this image is dynamic, so every 15 minutes it will refresh, and by tomorrow, this active region might have decayed again, or it could enlarge dramatically.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

NOAA has declared this rapidly developing active region to be AR2704, but it is still too small to be seen unless enlarged. See The Sun Today at https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg AR2704 has now been classified as a Beta with the possibility of generating B and C flares. Below is the report generated by NOAA.

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 103 Issued at 0030Z on 13 Apr 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 12 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 12/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2704 N10E51 030 0030 Bxo 02 03 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 12/2400Z Apr
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 13 Apr to 15 Apr
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/ ... 413SRS.txt

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

For the second day, AR2704 continues across the solar disc. It is the brightest area in the solar image.

To the south of AR2704, notice the deep black coronal holes from which solar winds could emerge.

Attachments
solar image_04-13-2018_2240 UT_AR2704_coronal holes.jpg
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

:Issued: 2018 Apr 14 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 104 Issued at 0030Z on 14 Apr 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 13 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 13/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2704 N12E36 033 0030 Bxo 03 04 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 13/2400Z Apr
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 14 Apr to 16 Apr
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

The Royal Observatory of Belgium for Saturday, April 14, 2018 follows:

COMMENT: The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours. The
active region (NOAA 2704, Mcintosh class: Bxo, Mag. type: Beta) has
produced few small flares. The flaring conditions are expected to remain
mostly quiet for the next 24-hour period with a small chance of C-class
flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection has been observed. The greater than
10 MeV solar protons flux remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours
and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind parameters have shown a return towards the ambient-
background and slow solar wind speed regime. The solar wind speed has
continuously decreased from around 450 to 390 km/s over the past 24 hours.

The total magnetic field strength remained below 6 nT, and the Bz component
was fluctuating between -4.5 and +5.7 nT. Solar wind conditions are
expected to return to the slow regime by the end of this 24-hour period.

Geomagnetic conditions have been mostly quiet over the past 24 hours. A
slightly more active period was observed: local K (Dourbs) was 3 between
22:00 UT on April 13 and 02:00 UT on April 14, and Kp index (NOAA) has
reached 4 on April 14 at 01:00 UT. With the decay of the solar wind speed,
the geomagnetic conditions are expected to remained mostly quiet for the
next period.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Wow! AR2704 did not last long as a Beta. It is now an H-alpha plague with zero sunspots according to NOAA.

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 106 Issued at 0030Z on 16 Apr 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 15 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 15/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 15/2400Z Apr
Nmbr Location Lo
2704 N12E10 033
II. Regions Due to Return 16 Apr to 18 Apr
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

However, international astronomers see 12 sunspots with a standard deviation of 0.8 according to the Belgium Royal Observatory:

2018 04 10 2018.273 7 5.8 32 33
2018 04 11 2018.275 0 0.0 27 29
2018 04 12 2018.278 8 7.0 20 21
2018 04 13 2018.281 15 1.4 14 20
2018 04 14 2018.284 0 0.0 20 31
2018 04 15 2018.286 7 6.2 20 21
2018 04 16 2018.289 12 0.8 11 13

Below is the GOES X-ray flux from April 15, 2018, yesterday afternoon.
Look at the red line. It now shows a decline in solar activity to the A levels.

04-15-2018_AR2704 actively B flaring_goes-xray-flux.gif
04-15-2018_AR2704 actively B flaring_goes-xray-flux.gif (13.53 KiB) Viewed 889 times

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