As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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NASA's solar image of new Active Region AR2727 shows increased size, but a steady number of sunspots.
Click this link for the latest image: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

The GOES X-ray flux shows slightly decreased solar activity, which is now down to A2.0.
However, Belgium warns that there is a 10% chance of C-flaring within the next 24 hours.
See: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

Here is the Royal Observatory of Belgium's daily comment:

COMMENT: There were no flares on the visible solar disc of the Sun in the
past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated
at 10%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

In the past 24 hours, solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR
varied between about 315 and 365 km/s, with current values around 330 km/s.
The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly directed towards
the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 0 and 6 nT. Bz was never
below -5 nT.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0
and 1) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled conditions
(K Dourbes < 4) are expected on November 17, 18 and 19.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 016, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.

Take a look at this glorious shot from the Southern Hemisphere:

SOUTHERN LIGHTS: Last weekend, Nov. 10th, a stream of fast-moving solar wind hit Earth's magnetic field, igniting a ring of auroras around the South Pole. Minoru Yoneto saw the red-purple glow all the way from Queenstown, New Zealand:

Image

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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A SUNSPOT FROM THE NEXT SOLAR CYCLE: Over the weekend, a small sunspot materialized in the sun's northern hemisphere, then, hours later, vanished again. Such an occurrence is hardly unusual during solar minimum when sunspots are naturally small and short-lived. However, this ephemeral spot was noteworthy because its magnetic field was reversed--marking it as a member of the next solar cycle.

Image

Shown above is a magnetic map of the sun from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory on Nov. 17th. Two sunspot groups visible at 21:00 UT are inset.

Note sunspot AR2727 just north of the sun's equator. It is a member of decaying Solar Cycle 24, the cycle that peaked back in 2012-2014. Next, compare its magnetic polarity to that of the other, unnumbered sunspot high above it. They are opposite. According to Hale's Law, this means the two sunspots belong to different solar cycles. The high latitude sunspot appears to be a harbinger of Solar Cycle 25.

Solar cycles always mix together at their boundaries. Indeed, ephemeral sunspots possibly belonging to Solar Cycle 25 have already been reported on Dec. 20, 2016, and April 8, 2018. Now we can add Nov. 17, 2018, to list. The slow transition between Solar Cycle 24 and Solar Cycle 25 appears to be underway.

What does this mean? First, it suggests that the solar cycle is still operative. This contradicts widespread internet buzz that a Grand Minimum is in the offing, with no new sunspots expected for decades as the solar cycle grinds to a halt. Second, if patterns of previous solar cycles hold, Solar Minimum is not finished. It will probably continue to deepen in the year or so ahead even as new Solar Cycle 25 sunspots occasionally pop up, promising an ultimate end to the lassitude.

Thus, this means that Solar Cycle 25 might start to peak sometime in the late 2019 or by Spring 2020.

We have already had 302 spotless days with the first spotless day in 2014 through November 12, but there might be nine to ten more days if no more sunspots make an appearance in November.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Luke
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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We have not had two sunspots for a while.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Departing AR 2727 is decaying, so the sun is now spotless.

However, take a look at the HMI Magnetogram Colored image found
at https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIBC.jpg

When this HMI Magnetogram is enlarged (double click the image), you
might be able to spot a bi-polar h-alpha plague standing out with a -/+
polarity, while the rest will have the +/- magnetic polarity of Solar Cycle 24.

Solar Cycle 24 maintains the +/- magnetic polarity (green-yellow)
The coming Solar Cycle 25 has a reverse polarity of -/+ (yellow-green).

Particularly during a solar minimum, a quiet h-alpha plague might develop
sunspots to become an ephemeral active region that rapidly appears
only to decline rapidly again.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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AN OUTBURST OF RAINBOW-COLORED AURORAS: Northern lights are often green, sometimes red, and rarely pink or blue. On Nov. 19th, an outburst of Northern Lights over Tromsø, Norway, painted the sky with all the colors of the rainbow. Aurora tour guide Marianne Bergli photographed the outburst:

Image

"At first the night was quiet with little activity," says Bergli. "Just after some of the bigger groups around us left, the skies came alive with dancing auroras everywhere. Good things come to those who wait."

Aurora colors are associated with specific atoms and molecules in Earth's atmosphere. Green is due to energetic particles hitting oxygen atoms at altitudes between 100 km and 200 km. Red is caused by oxygen atoms, too, but higher up, above 200 km. Nitrogen molecules glow pink below 100 km, while nitrogen ions glow blue above 100 km.

The full palette was on display on Nov. 19th, with particles from space activating atoms, ions, and molecules at all altitudes. Says Bergli, "Wow, what a show!" Free: Aurora Alerts

reference: www.spaceweather.com for November 20, 2018

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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A new active region has appeared that is approaching the center of the solar disc.

I cannot post this image as it is a dynamic image that changes every 15 minutes.
Click the link below to see the most current solar image provided by NASA.

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

Even though this active region is barely visible, its area is quite large.
An astronomical station has counted about 10 spots, but this active region
appears to be a rapidly developing area, so the number of sunspots could
increase as more astronomical stations report in.

Nevertheless, as often happens during solar minimums, this active region
could be ephemeral: here today, gone tomorrow. In the next few hours,
we should know if this thing persists.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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From http://www.spaceweather.com Friday, November 23, 2018

The Earth has been singing --

A RARE WAVE IN EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD: When a stream of solar wind hits Earth, magnetometers around the Arctic Circle normally go haywire, their needles swinging chaotically as local magnetic fields react to the buffeting of the solar wind. On Nov. 18th, however, something quite different happened. Solar wind hit Earth and produced ... a pure, almost-musical sine wave:

Image

Rob Stammes recorded the event from the Polarlightcenter, a magnetic observatory in the Lofoten Islands of Norway. "A very stable 15 second magnetic oscillation commenced and persisted for several hours," he says. "The magnetic field was swinging back and forth by 0.06 degrees, peak to peak, with the regularity of a metronome."

Imagine blowing across a piece of paper, making it flutter with your breath. The solar wind can have a similar effect on magnetic fields. The waves Stammes recorded are essentially flutters propagating down the flanks of Earth's magnetosphere excited by the breath of the sun. Researchers call them "pulsations continuous" -- or "Pc" for short.

"A very sensitive magnetometer is required to record these delicate waves," says Stammes. "I use a mechanical magnetometer with bar magnets suspended from a special wire. LEDs and light detectors in an isolated dark box record the motion of the magnets, while vanes in oil damp out non-magnetic interference."

Pc waves are classified into 5 types depending on their period. The waves Stammes recorded fall into the range 15 to 45 seconds--that is, Pc3. Researchers have found that Pc3 waves sometimes flow around Earth's magnetic field and cause a "tearing instability" in our planet's magnetic tail. This, in turn, can set the stage for an explosion as magnetic fields in the tail reconnect.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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