As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Per Belgium's Royal Observatory, a new active region is at the Eastern Limb of the sun.

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low, with X-ray flux remaining below B
level.
A new region is rotating onto the disk, but at present chances for C flares
are still judged to be very low.

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data.

Proton flux levels were at background values and are expected to remain so.

A small negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere has
passed the central meridian yesterday. It may become geoeffective from late
June 12.

Solar wind conditions have been nominal with solar wind speed further
decreasing to below 300 km/s. Total magnetic field was 1-4 nT with the Bz
component mainly negative but not reaching below -3nT. The magnetic field
phi angle was initially variable but now clearly indicates a negative
sector connection.
Solar wind conditions may become slightly disturbed from late June 12 due a
small coronal hole in the Southern hemisphere.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (local K Dourbes 1-2, and NOAA Kp 1) and
are initially expected to remain so. Later unsettled conditions may be
experienced.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.

Now, we can see this active region with the pictures from NOAA/NASA at The Sun Now.

solar image_06-11-2018_Solar Flaring at B levels.jpg
solar image_06-11-2018_Solar Flaring at B levels.jpg (151.13 KiB) Viewed 642 times

Over the past three days, NOAA's GOES-X-ray flux shows increased solar activity heralding the approach of a new active region.

Thus, on June 9, 2018, solar activity was in the low A0, but a day later on June 10, solar activity had increased to the low A1 to A2 range. Now, however, we are in the process of experiencing a Solar Class B flare, the first one since June 6, 2018. Follow the red line.

06-11-2018_B1.8_1912 UT_goes-x-ray-flux.gif
06-11-2018_B1.8_1912 UT_goes-x-ray-flux.gif (13.73 KiB) Viewed 642 times

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Here is the latest report from Belgium's Royal Observatory:

COMMENT: Solar activity was low with the largest flaring a B1.8 flare,
peaking at 19:12 UT from the region turning into view at the East limb.
This new bipolar region that rotated over the East was numbered Catania
group 86.
Chances for C flaring remain very low.

No Earth directed CMEs are visible in coronagraph images.

Solar proton flux levels were at background values and are expected to
remain so.

Solar wind conditions have been nominal with solar wind speed around 300
km/s and total magnetic field between 2-6 nT. The Bz component of the
magnetic field was variable. The magnetic field phi angle indicates a
negative sector connection.
Solar wind conditions may become slightly disturbed later today and
tomorrow due a small coronal hole in the Southern hemisphere.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 0-2).
Geomagnetic conditions may become unsettled later today and tomorrow before
recovering to quiet again.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 011, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

NOAA confirms that AR2713 has been actively flaring at the B levels.
This active region is not N06 as was AR2711, but has a latitude of N03.

:Issued: 2018 Jun 13 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 164 Issued at 0030Z on 13 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 12 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 12/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2713 N03E69 286 0010 Bxo 05 02 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 12/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 13 Jun to 15 Jun
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

AR2713 has increased in size and in strength per NOAA:

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 165 Issued at 0030Z on 14 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 13 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 13/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2713 N06E56 285 0060 Bxo 06 06 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 13/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 14 Jun to 16 Jun
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

Below is the EISN from Belgium's Royal Observatory:
For the last two days, June 12 and 13, AR2713 has shown an increase in sunspots.

Date . . . . . . . . . . EISN std st str
2018 06 01 2018.415 24 3.6 33 36
2018 06 02 2018.418 21 3.4 27 34
2018 06 03 2018.421 14 2.1 34 39
2018 06 04 2018.423 0 0.0 30 34
2018 06 05 2018.426 0 0.0 32 33
2018 06 06 2018.429 7 5.9 38 38
2018 06 07 2018.432 0 3.2 20 31
2018 06 08 2018.434 0 0.0 33 33
2018 06 09 2018.437 0 0.0 26 28
2018 06 10 2018.440 0 0.0 23 24
2018 06 11 2018.442 0 0.0 21 22
2018 06 12 2018.445 12 1.7 17 22
2018 06 13 2018.448 16 1.6 18 21

In the picture below, the very dark spot at the NE indicates that solar winds are being experienced. These solar winds can interfere with radio communications on earth.

Attachments
solar image_06-14-2018_Beta AR2713 at East_coronal hole.jpg
solar image_06-14-2018_Beta AR2713 at East_coronal hole.jpg (128.24 KiB) Viewed 621 times

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

AR2713 has decreased in area from a high of 60 yesterday to 30 today. It might continue this decay, but as of now, it remains a Beta. There has been no more B flaring since June 12, 2018, almost three days ago. This again is typical during a solar minimum where active regions decrease in size and decay quite rapidly, and where the sun has almost flat-lined in the A region of the GOES X-ray flux charts. cf. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

:Issued: 2018 Jun 15 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 166 Issued at 0030Z on 15 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 14 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 14/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2713 N05E43 285 0030 Bxi 07 06 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 14/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 15 Jun to 17 Jun
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Today, Friday, June 15, we had a mild B solar flare at 06:49:00 UTC. It was a B1.1. That was the only B flare so far. Otherwise, AR2713 seems to be decaying as it is barely visible on the face of the sun.

See chart at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

NOAA confirms that AR2713 is decaying gradually decreasing in size and in strength.

In the meantime, there is the distinct possibility that AR2712 could return as a new active region, AR2714? Time will tell.

Also notice that these active regions are in the Northern Hemisphere. With the dawn of the new solar cycle #25, we will notice that more active regions will be developing in the Southern Hemisphere. The delay in the advent of these Southern Hemisphere active regions tells me that we are in for a deeper solar minimum than expected -- a possible mini-ice age.

Oh, importantly, those of us who live in sub-tropical Los Angeles (agricultural zone 11), have noticed that our fruit bearing trees did not blossom this February. Instead, they have just started blossoming in mid-June. Reason -- we had an unusually cold winter, and it appears as if the Weather Channel is not telling us the truth. We lost several trees due to the cold freeze. If we had had a truthful warning by the Weather Channel, perhaps by placing tarps and buckets of water around those more tropical trees, we could have saved them from the cold freeze.

By the way, another sign of this impending mini-ice age is the active volcano in Hawaii. In addition to Hawaii, there have been other volcanoes which have come back to life after years of dormancy. When these volcanoes emit clouds of ash and sulfuric acid, these elements occlude the sun, cause the formation of dense cloud covers, and cause global cooling.

:Issued: 2018 Jun 16 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 167 Issued at 0030Z on 16 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 15 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 15/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2713 N05E30 286 0010 Bxo 04 03 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 15/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 16 Jun to 18 Jun
Nmbr Lat Lo
2712 N14 194

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