As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 26 May 2018 4:06 am

Whereas AR2711 and AR2712 are Betas, AR2710 has now decayed to an alpha plage per today's report from NOAA.

:Issued: 2018 May 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 146 Issued at 0030Z on 26 May 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 25 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 25/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2711 N06W55 289 0040 Cso 07 05 Beta
2712 N14E56 178 0040 Cao 09 07 Beta

IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 25/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
2710 N17E11 223
II. Regions Due to Return 26 May to 28 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 26 May 2018 4:46 am

Here is yesterday's NOAA's report showing which active region has erupted in a solar flare.

AR2711 (on the right side) was responsible for one B3.7 flare,
whereas AR2712 erupted three times: B1.1, B1.2, and B1.9.

AR2710 was silent.

# Edited Events for 2018 May 25
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5480 0331 0334 0337 G14 5 XRA 1-8A B1.1 2.4E-05 2712

5490 1404 1442 1452 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.2 2.5E-04 2712

5500 + 2001 2009 2016 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.7 2.3E-04 2711
5500 2005 2009 2013 HOL 3 FLA N05W53 SF ERU 2711

5510 2133 2134 2135 HOL 3 FLA N14E61 SF 2712

5520 + 2332 2335 2338 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.9 3.7E-05 2712
5520 2334 2335 2337 HOL 3 FLA N14E59 SF DSD 2712
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 26 May 2018 7:21 pm

Both AR2711 and AR2712 have been relatively quiet. AR2711 will be exiting our view.

Here is the latest view of the sun.
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solar image_05-26-2018_stable AR2711 on right_AR2712 at left.jpg
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sun 27 May 2018 3:43 am

Here is today's comment by NOAA:

These two active regions have been relatively quiet and seem to be decaying.
Soon AR2711 will be leaving for its transit around the sun. Most likely it will not return.

:Issued: 2018 May 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 147 Issued at 0030Z on 27 May 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 26 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 26/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2711 N07W70 291 0030 Cro 04 03 Beta
2712 N15E43 178 0040 Cao 08 03 Beta

IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 26/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
2710 N17W03 224
II. Regions Due to Return 27 May to 29 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sun 27 May 2018 5:28 pm

Currently, AR2712 seems to be increasing in complexity, while AR2711 is disappearing from sight.

Behold the sun!
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solar Image_05.27-2018_AR2712 increases.jpg
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Mon 28 May 2018 12:40 am

NOAA confirms that AR2712 is still growing, while the Royal Observatory in Belgium EISN plot shows an increase in sunspot areas.

Belgium's EISN for May 2018
Date . . . . . . . . . . EISN std st str
2018 05 20 2018.382 00 0.0 34 37
2018 05 21 2018.385 11 1.4 32 41
2018 05 22 2018.388 13 1.8 35 42
2018 05 23 2018.390 27 4.7 28 35
2018 05 24 2018.393 36 6.5 29 36
2018 05 25 2018.396 33 5.1 28 33
2018 05 26 2018.399 28 3.2 29 36
2018 05 27 2018.401 30 8.7 27 30


EISN = Estimated International Sunspot Number
std = standard deviation
st = station reports accepted
str = total stations reporting
difference between str and st = outliers not accepted

Notice the huge standard deviations (over 3.0) for May 23, 24, 25, 26, and 27.

:Issued: 2018 May 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 148 Issued at 0030Z on 28 May 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 27 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 27/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2711 N05W84 291 0010 Bxo 03 02 Beta
2712 N15E28 179 0040 Cro 09 05 Beta

IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 27/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
2710 N17W17 224
II. Regions Due to Return 28 May to 30 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Mon 28 May 2018 8:54 am

This advisory in from http://www.spaceweather.com
Sunspot AR2712 is quiet, but it might not remain so. The sunspot has quadrupled in size in the past 48 hours. Instabilities in its fast-changing magnetic field could lead to solar flares.


As AR2712 shows increases in its magnetic field and approaches the center of the sun, any significant flares most likely will be geo-centered. Thus, we could be in for another September 2017 surprise where we experienced X-flares.
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.


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