As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Mon 23 April 2018 12:56 am

NOAA just issued its report showing that AR2707 is now among the H-alpha plages, and that Beta AR2706 has increased in size.

The GOES-X-ray flux shows flaring in the A range, but almost no activity in the B range. In fact, the last B flare was recorded on Saturday, April 21, 2018.

:Issued: 2018 Apr 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 113 Issued at 0030Z on 23 Apr 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 22 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2706 N03E29 281 0130 Dao 09 10 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z Apr
Nmbr Location Lo
2704 N12W88 038
2707 S10E15 295
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Tue 24 April 2018 1:33 am

NOAA's current update on Beta AR2706 is listed below.

:Product: 0424SRS.txt
:Issued: 2018 Apr 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 114 Issued at 0030Z on 24 Apr 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 23 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 23/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2706 N02E16 281 0080 Cao 08 12 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 23/2400Z Apr
Nmbr Location Lo
2707 S10E01 296
II. Regions Due to Return 24 Apr to 26 Apr
Nmbr Lat Lo
None


Although AR2706 has decreased in area, it is now moving toward the center of the sun where it becomes geocentered, so if there were to be a solar flare, and if a CME were to be discharged, it could have quite an impact on the earth. Nevertheless, since we are approaching a deep solar minimum, the chance of a solar flare is minimal, yet we are always reminded of the September 2017 surprise when high X-flares bathed the earth.
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Wed 25 April 2018 12:59 am

Although AR2706 is gradually decaying, it unleashed a B2.1 Solar Class Flare today at 2245 UT (2:45 PM PDT), so it is not dead yet. Below is the report from NOAA. Currently, it is geocentered.

View the solar disc at The Sun Today. http://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/

:Issued: 2018 Apr 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 115 Issued at 0030Z on 25 Apr 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 24 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 24/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2706 N02E01 283 0050 Cao 07 09 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 24/2400Z Apr
Nmbr Location Lo
2707 S10W13 297
II. Regions Due to Return 25 Apr to 27 Apr
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Thu 26 April 2018 8:48 am

Beta AR2706 is still with us, but it is slowly decaying as it transits the sun.

So far today, the GOES X-ray Flux shows an almost flatlined sun, which is normal for solar minimums.

Belgium's EISN plot shows a sunspot number of 15, which has been slowly decreasing during the past eight days from a high of 25.

:Issued: 2018 Apr 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 116 Issued at 0030Z on 26 Apr 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 25 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 25/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2706 N03W10 280 0050 Cro 08 07 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 25/2400Z Apr
Nmbr Location Lo
2707 S10W27 297
II. Regions Due to Return 26 Apr to 28 Apr
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Fri 27 April 2018 3:06 am

It's official. AR2706 has now decayed to an alpha, and it is now barely visible.
It is steadily approaching the Western Limb of the sun where it will depart our view unless it vanishes within a day or two.

The last EISN report on April 26, 2018 from Belgium shows only 14 sunspots.

:Issued: 2018 Apr 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 117 Issued at 0030Z on 27 Apr 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 26 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 26/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2706 N03W27 284 0020 Hrx 01 04 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 26/2400Z Apr
Nmbr Location Lo
2707 S10W41 298
II. Regions Due to Return 27 Apr to 29 Apr
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 28 April 2018 12:49 am

Alpha AR2706 continues to decay and may become an H-alpha plage within 24 hours.
It is so tiny that it is almost invisible now.

:Issued: 2018 Apr 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 118 Issued at 0030Z on 28 Apr 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 27 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 27/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2706 N03W40 284 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 27/2400Z Apr
Nmbr Location Lo
2707 S10W54 298
II. Regions Due to Return 28 Apr to 30 Apr
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 5 May 2018 1:52 am

After several days of spotlessness, the sun has a new active region, AR2708. Since we are in a solar minimum, I expect that this sunspot region might not last too long as the GOES X-ray flux has flat lined and the Active region is not very prominent.

Notice the solar image below. There is another active region rotating into view in the Northwestern hemisphere of the solar disc. Will it last or will it disappear as so many active regions have done?

:Issued: 2018 May 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 125 Issued at 0030Z on 05 May 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 04 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 04/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2708 S09E53 204 0030 Cro 03 03 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 04/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 05 May to 07 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
None


Notice the dark coronal hole in the center of the solar disc. From this coronal hole, we can expect solar winds which can disrupt radio communications on earth.
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solar image_05-05-2018_AR2708 in the East.jpg
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