As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Today the sun has been spotless for the fourth day in a row since March 3, 2018.
So far, the average Estimated International Sunspot Number for March averages slightly more than two.

During this solar minimum, the average monthly means for International Sunspot Numbers (ISN)
have been plunging rather dramatically, while the monthly number of spotless days has been
increasing according to the monthly Sunspot Bulletin published by Belgium's Royal Observatory:

Month Year ISN Spotless Days
Feb. 2018 #10.6 with 12 days
Jan. 2018 #06.7 with 15 days

Dec. 2017 #08.2 with 16 days
Nov. 2017 #05.7 with 19 days
Oct. 2017 #13.2 with 11 days
Sep. 2017 #43.6 with 00 days
Aug. 2017 #33.1 with 00 days
Jul. 2017 #18.3 with 11 days
Jun. 2017 #19.4 with 04 days
May 2017 #18.8 with 07 days
Apr. 2017 #32.6 with 04 days
Mar. 2017 #17.7 with 16 days
Feb. 2017 #26.1 with 00 days
Jan. 2017 #25.8 with 08 days

Dec. 2016 #18.9 with 06 days
Nov. 2016 #21.4 with 00 days
Oct. 2016 #33.6 with 01 days
Sep. 2016 #44.7 with 00 days
Aug. 2016 #50.7 with 01 days
Jul. 2016 #32.5 with 05 days
Jun. 2016 #20.9 with 09 days
May 2016 #52.1 with 00 days
Apr. 2016 #30.8 with 00 days
Mar. 2016 #54.9 with 00 days
Feb. 2016 #57.2 with 00 days
Jan. 2016 #56.6 with 00 days.

cf. http://www.sidc.be/silso/sunspotbulletin

Totals for Solar Cycle 25 during this solar minimum as published by Belgium's Sunspot Bulletin.
2018 total: 27 spotless days (average per month = 13.5) - this figure does not include spotless days in March 2018
2017 total: 96 spotless days (average per month = 8.0)
2016 total: 22 spotless days (average per month = 1.83 ); the 10th spotless day occurred in June 2016
2015 total: 00 spotless days (average per month = 0.0)
2014 total: 01 spotless day (average per month 0.08); this spotless day occurred on July 17, 2014
Grand total: 146 spotless days for the new solar cycle 25

According to the data provided on the website of http://www.spaceweather.com
2018 total: 31 days (47%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 00 days (0%)
2014 total: 01 day (<1%)
Grand Total: 168 spotless days for new solar cycle 25

Notice that spaceweather.com provides a figure that is 22 days higher than the spotless days noted by Belgium.
This is due to the fleeting nature of the sunspots located on the sun. Then, too, Belgium is located in the Northern Hemisphere not too far from the polar regions. With more cloudy days obscuring the vision of the sun, Belgium would have fewer days to observe the sun.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Just in from NOAA

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 75 Issued at 0030Z on 16 Mar 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 15 Mar
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 15/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2701 S12W08 099 0010 Axx 00 01 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 15/2400Z Mar
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 16 Mar to 18 Mar
Nmbr Lat Lo
2700 N07 349

There is a tiny new sunspot area or active region AR2701 that is geo-centered.

Furthermore, former AR2700 might return as there is a little hot spot on the easterly limb
that appears to be coming into view. However, it may have already decayed into an alpha plage.

Take a look at the solar image below. AR2701 is very tiny. It too may decay. Stay tuned.

solar image_03-15-2018_massive coronal hole.jpg
solar image_03-15-2018_massive coronal hole.jpg (13.56 KiB) Viewed 590 times

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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From Belgium 's Royal Observatory

COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. No significant
flares have been recorded. Active Region (AR) 2701 (Mcintosh class:Axx;
Mag. type:Alpha) emerged near disk centre but is compact and has shown no
significant flaring activity. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections
(CMEs) have been detected. The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at
background levels over the past 24 hours. A low latitude coronal hole is
currently located in the western hemisphere. Solar activity is expected to
remain low over the next 24 hours with a low probability of C-class flares.
The solar wind speed has been fluctuating around 500 km/s over the past 24
hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated between 3.0 nT and
8.0 nT. The Bz component has been mainly negative fluctuated between -6.0
and +5.0 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-4 (NOAA) over
the past 24 hours. A low latitude negative polarity northern polar coronal
hole has caused increased solar wind speeds at Earth and enhanced
geomagnetic activity, which may persist throughout the next couple of days.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.

AR2701 has apparently decayed with only one astronomer observing it today,
March 16, 2018. It was very short-lived.

Text message from Belgium, but comments in bold italics following the numbers are mine.
Note:
EISN - estimated international sunspot number
std - standard deviation
st - station reports accepted
str - total stations reporting, including excluded outliers with high or low reports

Date . . . . . . . . . EISN std st str
2018 03 01 2018.163 7 6.0 21 22 - With a high std (6), 22 saw a varying number of sunspots in AR2700 ranging from 0 to 13
2018 03 02 2018.166 0 3.5 11 17 - 6 outliers (6/17) saw sunspots (probably in AR2700)
2018 03 03 2018.168 0 0.0 28 29
2018 03 04 2018.171 0 0.0 35 36
2018 03 05 2018.174 0 0.0 28 29
2018 03 06 2018.177 0 0.0 25 26
2018 03 07 2018.179 0 0.0 18 19
2018 03 08 2018.182 0 0.0 30 33 - 3 outliers (3/33) saw sunspots
2018 03 09 2018.185 0 0.0 29 30
2018 03 10 2018.188 0 0.0 22 23
2018 03 11 2018.190 0 0.0 30 31
2018 03 12 2018.193 0 0.0 33 35 - 2 outliers (2/35) saw sunspots
2018 03 13 2018.196 0 0.0 24 26
2018 03 14 2018.199 0 0.0 32 32
2018 03 15 2018.201 0 0.0 17 20 - three outliers (3/20) saw AR2701
2018 03 16 2018.204 0 0.0 25 26 - only one outlier (1/26) saw AR2701

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 03-16-2018_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 03-16-2018_EISNcurrent.png (37.95 KiB) Viewed 582 times

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

AR2701 has decayed and is now an alpha plage according to NOAA.

If this spotless sun continues, the ISN for March 2018 may be the lowest yet in this
solar minimum. Thus, it does look like we are plunging deeper into this solar minimum.
How long will this solar minimum last? Will it be a short one, lasting two more years?
Or will it be a very long one that will last four or even six more years. In other words,
will this be a mini-ice age? Belgium has stated that we really will not know for at least
one to two more years when we might see a pattern.

Here are the current stats:

Month Year ISN Spotless Days
Mar. 2018 <1.0 with 15 days to date (Mar. 1 and 2 are uncertain due to high standard deviations)
Feb. 2018 #10.6 with 12 days
Jan. 2018 #06.7 with 15 days
Dec. 2017 #08.2 with 16 days
Nov. 2017 #05.7 with 19 days

If we continue to have long stretches of spotlessness averaging more than 15 days
each month, which has been the case during these past five months, and if in the
near future, we have months with 20 to 30 days of spotlessness, then we can say
with more confidence that this new solar cycle 25 might be a long one, which could
bring on a mini-ice age.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 76 Issued at 0030Z on 17 Mar 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 16 Mar
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z Mar
Nmbr Location Lo
2701 S12W22 100

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

This chart and the one below are produced by Belgium's Royal Observatory and
shows that we are entering into perhaps 70 to 130 years of cooler weather -- a mini-ice age.

Image

cf: http://www.sidc.be/silso/spotless

The chart above shows that we have had 70 years of cooler solar cycles from about
1850 to 1920. However, the chart below indicates that this solar minimum was actually
much longer as it started around 1790 and lasted until 1920 -- a total of 130 years.

This was followed by 80 years of warmer solar cycles from 1920 to 2000.

Thus, we might be entering into perhaps 70 to 130 years of cooler solar cycles, which will
last from approximately 2000 to 2130 according to the so-called 100 year solar cycle.

Yet, there are 300 year solar cycles, which are extremely cold, as was seen in the
1600s to mid 1700s, and also during 600 A.D. when there was another mini-ice age.
We are very overdue for the 300 year solar minimum.

At this time, we do not know if we will be plunging into a standard 100 year cooler solar
cycle or a 300 year solar cycle maunder minimum of extremely cold times when there
was no summer at all. See the chart below during the late 1600s to 1700's.

Image

Of course, most of us will not be alive to see the year 2070.
And perhaps, Christ will come before then.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Today, there appears to be a small rapidly developing active region in the Northeastern quadrant of the sun per NASA images.
cf. https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

In addition, the GOES x-ray flux is showing increased activity, but it is still in the A range with no recent B or C flarings.
cf. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

Below is the text message from Belgium's Royal Observatory:
My comments are in italics.

Date . . . . . . . . . EISN std st str
2018 03 01 2018.163 7 6.0 21 22 - With a high std (6), 22 saw a varying number of sunspots in AR2700 ranging from 0 to 13
2018 03 02 2018.166 0 3.5 11 17 - 6 outliers (6/17) saw sunspots (probably in AR2700)
2018 03 03 2018.168 0 0.0 28 29
2018 03 04 2018.171 0 0.0 35 36
2018 03 05 2018.174 0 0.0 28 29
2018 03 06 2018.177 0 0.0 25 26
2018 03 07 2018.179 0 0.0 18 19
2018 03 08 2018.182 0 0.0 30 33
2018 03 09 2018.185 0 0.0 29 30
2018 03 10 2018.188 0 0.0 22 23
2018 03 11 2018.190 0 0.0 30 31
2018 03 12 2018.193 0 0.0 33 35
2018 03 13 2018.196 0 0.0 24 26
2018 03 14 2018.199 0 0.0 33 33
2018 03 15 2018.201 0 0.0 17 22 - 5/22 saw sunspots
2018 03 16 2018.204 0 0.0 25 26
2018 03 17 2018.207 0 0.0 05 09 - in early reporting, 4/9 saw sunspots

The EISN shows an average mean of 0.5 for the month of March. Will it rise with this new sunspot area?

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Ar2702 is now a beta.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 77 Issued at 0030Z on 18 Mar 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 17 Mar
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 17/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2702 N21W47 112 0010 Bxo 03 05 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 17/2400Z Mar
Nmbr Location Lo
2701 S12W36 101
II. Regions Due to Return 18 Mar to 20 Mar
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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