As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Here is a lovely shot of a magnetic filament near the South Pole of the solar disc.

If it snaps, it will most likely send a CME away from earth.

Attachments
solar image_01-07-2018_0444UT magnetic filament near South Pole.jpg
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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Belgium is now reporting with 13 out of 20 international astronomers agreeing that the sun is now spotless.
cf: http://www.sidc.be/silso/home

01 January : 0
02 January : 0
03 January : 0
04 January : 13
05 January : 12
06 January : 11
07 January : 0

Average EISN is approximately 5.1, but that can change as January is still young.

Apparently, decayed alpha plage 2693 is now revolving around to the far side of the sun and poses no danger.

Full statement from Belgium's Royal Observatory at 1230 UT on January 7, 2018
at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu/

COMMENT: The solar activity was quiet over the past 24 hours and no flare
has been recorded. Quiet flaring conditions are expected for the next
24-hour period with possible but not very likely B to C-class flares from
the small sunspot turning around the West limb.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection has been observed. The greater than
10 MeV solar protons flux remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours
and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind conditions were within the slow wind speed stream over the
past 24 hours. The solar wind speed was ranging between 280 and 300 km/s.
The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was below 5 nT, and the Bz
component was ranging from -4 to 4 nT. Solar wind enhancements and wind
speed streams associated with the coronal hole (which was facing Earth on
Jan 05) are expected to arrive tomorrow on Jan 08.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet as the Earth was within the slow
solar wind speed stream. Some disturbances of the geomagnetic conditions
are anticipated due to the arrival of the wind speed streams associated
with the coronal hole. And moderate to active geomagnetic conditions can be
expected tomorrow on Jan 08.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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NOAA at 0030 UT on January 8, 2018 (Monday) continues to list AR2692 as an alpha.

However, there have been no current reports from Belgium on the EISN/SILO plot map for January 8, 2018 (Monday).

No doubt, several of the international astronomers associated with Belgium also listed AR2693 as an active region with sunspots when they viewed the solar disc earlier in the day on Sunday, January 7, 2018. Of the 21 astronomers who signed into Belgium's EISN/SILO site on Sunday, January 7, 2018, 14 (2/3) determined that the solar disc was spotless later in the day, while seven (1/3) of the astronomers who observed the sun earlier saw spots. Apparently, AR2693 decayed significantly as it started to rotate to the far side of the sun on Sunday, January 7.

What happened on Monday morning, January 8? Apparently, it is too early to tell. Are storm clouds obscuring the view?

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 8 Issued at 0030Z on 08 Jan 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 07 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 07/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2693 N20W78 332 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Here are the latest January 2018 Estimated International Sunspot Numbers reported from Belgium
with information from international astronomical reporting stations around the earth.

Note that the data given for January 7 is somewhat uncertain with only 14 agreeing but 23 reporting.
While 14 are reporting the sun as spotless, 9 scientists disagree. This is a serious discrepancy.
However, as the sun revolves, sunspot data will change. What one scientist observes at 0000 UT
at noon his time, another scientist might see something different at 0600 UT, 1200 UT, or 1800 UT, etc.

Date . . . . . . EISN
04 January : 13 (17 of 21 astronomers agree with a 1.4 standard deviation)
05 January : 11 (18 of 21 astronomers agree with a 1.2 standard deviation)
06 January : 11 (15 of 18 astronomers agree with a 1.6 standard deviation)
07 January : 00 (14 of 23 astronomers agree. No standard deviation given)
08 January : 13 (08 of 11 astronomers agree with a 2.0 standard deviation)

2018 01 01 2018.001 0 0.0 11 12
2018 01 02 2018.004 0 0.0 23 25
2018 01 03 2018.007 0 0.0 19 20
2018 01 04 2018.010 13 1.4 17 21
2018 01 05 2018.012 11 1.2 18 21
2018 01 06 2018.015 11 1.6 15 18
2018 01 07 2018.018 0 0.0 14 23
2018 01 08 2018.021 13 2.0 8 11

What is happening on the Sun? Why the uptick in sunspot numbers?

Apparently there is a new active region located in the Southern Hemisphere that is geo-centered.
It looks like it might be a Beta.

See this solar image of the new active region from NASA: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

Nevertheless, the GOES X-ray-flux plot shows no recent B- or C-Class Solar Flares, which is not
surprising as we are in a solar minimum. See NOAA's plot at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Text information below is newly in from NOAA:

Indeed, in the Southern Hemisphere we have a new active region,
AR2694, and it is a Beta. However, this new active region is already
showing signs of decay with fewer sunspots.

cf. http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/ ... 109SRS.txt

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 9 Issued at 0030Z on 09 Jan 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 08 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 08/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2694 S32W03 244 0010 Bxo 03 03 Beta

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Comments from Belgium's Royal Observatory:

COMMENT: The only active region on the visible side of the Sun is NOAA AR
2694 which presently has beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic
field.
There were no C-class or even B-class flares reported during last 24
hours and we expect such a low flaring activity to persist in the coming
hours.
There were no Earth directed CMEs observed during last 24 hours, and the
solar protons are at background level.
The Earth is presently inside the fast solar wind (about 520 km/s)
associated with the low latitude extension of the northern polar coronal
hole which reached central meridian late on the January 04. The
interplanetary magnetic field magnitude has decreased and it now amounts
about 5 nT.
The equatorial coronal hole (between N05 and N30) has reached central
meridian this morning. The associated fast solar wind might be expected at
the Earth late on January 12.
Due to the longer interval of the negative value of the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field and the fast solar wind, disturbed
geomagnetic conditions were reported yesterday afternoon (Dourbes reported
K=4) and this morning (NOAA reported Kp=4).
The geomagnetic conditions are presently quiet and we expect quiet to
unsettled geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 014, BASED ON 04 STATIONS.

Two active regions: AR2694 and one that has yet to be numbered by NASA
can be seen on NASA's solar images today, January 9, 2018, at 1815 UT, but
the GOES X-ray flux plot continues to show flaring in the A region with a gradual
rise in the 0.5 to 4.0 A spectrum (GOES 15) shown in blue on the plot. Might this
be an indicator of increased solar flaring? Most likely not as we are in a solar
minimum, yet do not forget the September 2017 X-ray flarings. It can happen
again.

To see the latest solar image, please click: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

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01-09-2018_Two new active regions during this solar minimum_goes-xray-flux.gif
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

NOAA continues to show only one active region:

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 11 Issued at 0030Z on 11 Jan 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 10 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 10/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2694 S32W30 244 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha

Meanwhile, Belgium concurs. However, since there is an increase in sunspot
numbers with 21 reported on Jan. 10 up from 12 reported on Jan. 9, along with
the decay of AR2694, something does not add up. Usually a decrease in sunspot
numbers accompanies the decay of an active region, and vice versa.

For Thursday, Jan. 11, early tentative reports show a decrease in sunspot numbers.

cf. http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot for the Estimated International Sunspot Numbers

06 January: 11
07 January : 0
08 January : 13
09 January : 12
10 January : 21

cf. http://www.sidc.be/products/meu/ for the comments by Belgium's Royal Observatory
at 1230 UT on January 10, 2018

COMMENT: Solar activity remains to be very low without any flares reported
during last 24 hours. The only active region observed on the visible side
of the Sun, NOAA AR 2694 is decaying and it has presently alpha
configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. We expect that this very
low solar activity will persist in the coming hours.

There were no Earth directed CMEs observed during last 24 hours, and the
solar protons are at background level.
Solar wind speed is slowly decreasing and it is presently about 470 km/s.
The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is stable having the value of 3
nT.
The fast solar wind associated with the coronal hole (between N05 and N30)
which reached central meridian yesterday morning might be expected at the
Earth late on January 12.
The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and we expect them to stay so in the
coming hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 023, BASED ON 05 STATIONS.

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