As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

AR2715 has now decayed to a Beta. However, we must be vigilant as things can always change as was seen with AR2713, which is now a plage.

Here is the recent NOAA report:

Issued: 2018 Jun 25 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 176 Issued at 0030Z on 25 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 24 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 24/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2715 N07W34 231 0100 Dac 05 06 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 24/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
2713 N04W92 289

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

AR2715, although less in size, is now a Beta-Gamma.

Issued: 2018 Jun 26 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 177 Issued at 0030Z on 26 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 25 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 25/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2715 N08W48 231 0040 Cai 04 04 Beta-Gamma
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 25/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
None

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

AR2715 is decaying. Below is the daily comment from Belgium's Royal Observatory:

COMMENT: Solar activity is low and there were no B-class or stronger flares
reported during last 24 hours. Since there is presently only one active
region observed on the visible side of the solar disc, Catania sunspot
group 88 (NOAA AR 2715), we expect low flaring activity to persist in the
coming hours.
Coronagraph images do not show signatures of the Earth directed CMEs, and
the solar protons remained at the background level.
As expected, the solar wind speed increased this morning and it presently
amounts about 560 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field showed smooth
increase, observed starting from midday of June 25, which was followed by
strong variation of its Bz component. All this, together with the observed
sector change, indicates arrival of the fast solar wind associated with the
recurrent coronal hole (the low latitude extent of the southern polar
coronal hole which is reaching even up to the solar equator). Due to the
longer interval of negative value of the Bz component, both local station
at Dourbes and also NOAA reported disturbed geomagnetic conditions (K=5 and
Kp=5, respectively). The geomagnetic conditions are presently unsettled to
active and we expect such geomagnetic conditions to persist in the coming
hours.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 015, BASED ON 25 STATIONS.

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06-26-2018_Beta-Gamma AR2715 is decaying_goes-xray-flux.gif
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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

AR2715 has now decayed to an alpha, and by tomorrow, it should be on the far side of the sun.

According to NOAA's GOES X-ray flux chart, AR2715 is no longer B-flaring and is in the low A3 range.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

Issued: 2018 Jun 27 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 178 Issued at 0030Z on 27 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 26 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 26/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2715 N07W61 231 0020 Hrx 01 02 Alpha

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

AR2715 is now listed as an H-alpha plage by NOAA. All that is left o AR2715 is a white area on the sun's surface.
It will be departing our view for its two week transit on the far side of the sun.

Check out these pictures from NOAA: http://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/

Issued: 2018 Jun 28 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 179 Issued at 0030Z on 28 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 27 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 27/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 27/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
2715 N07W74 233

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Issued: 2018 Jun 29 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 180 Issued at 0030Z on 29 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 28 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 29 Jun to 01 Jul
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

Estimated International Sunspot Number for today is ZERO.
The monthly mean EISN for June 2018 is approximately 17.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

NOAA once again confirms a spotless day for June 30.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 181 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 30 Jun to 02 Jul
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

Update at 1:38 PM PDT June 30, 2018: Here is the EISN from the Royal Observatory of Belgium and international astronomers. The EISN for the month of June is approximately 16, but that may change with Belgium's monthly adjustments.

Notice the very high standard deviations (std) for 6/6, 6/17, 6/18, 6/19, 6/20, 6/21, 6/22, 6/23, 6/24, and especially 6/27.

Date . . . . . . . . . . EISN std st str
2018 06 01 2018.415 24 3.5 39 43
2018 06 02 2018.418 22 3.4 35 43
2018 06 03 2018.421 14 1.9 38 44
2018 06 04 2018.423 00 0.0 35 40
2018 06 05 2018.426 00 0.0 41 42
2018 06 06 2018.429 07 6.1 44 44
2018 06 07 2018.432 00 0.0 25 39
2018 06 08 2018.434 00 0.0 41 42
2018 06 09 2018.437 00 0.0 34 36
2018 06 10 2018.440 00 0.0 30 31
2018 06 11 2018.442 00 0.0 28 29
2018 06 12 2018.445 12 2.1 25 32
2018 06 13 2018.448 16 2.0 30 34
2018 06 14 2018.451 16 1.8 29 36
2018 06 15 2018.453 15 2.2 30 36
2018 06 16 2018.456 15 2.8 27 40
2018 06 17 2018.459 09 7.1 29 32
2018 06 18 2018.462 29 5.2 35 43
2018 06 19 2018.464 36 5.5 32 38
2018 06 20 2018.467 58 6.3 38 45
2018 06 21 2018.470 52 5.9 41 50
2018 06 22 2018.473 44 6.7 45 51
2018 06 23 2018.475 41 5.1 38 44
2018 06 24 2018.478 25 5.4 40 45
2018 06 25 2018.481 17 3.0 43 48
2018 06 26 2018.484 16 2.7 42 51
2018 06 27 2018.486 08 8.4 41 43
2018 06 28 2018.489 00 0.0 40 43
2018 06 29 2018.492 00 0.0 49 51
2018 06 30 2018.495 00 0.0 39 41

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