As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

As we approach the end of January 2018, the sun has remained spotless
for nine consecutive days, with a total monthly count of 16 spotless days,
two of which are questionable since international scientists have not reached
a consensus. Of 24 to 25 stations reporting, only 15 agree that those days on
January 7 and 14 were spotless. The other 9 to 10 stations saw sunspots.
While two-thirds (15 out of 25) is a majority, Belgium usually sides with the
minority, especially if Belgium also observed a few lingering ephemeral
sunspots that were only visible for a few hours during those days.

How long will this spotless streak in January continue?
Will it continue in February without a break? Perhaps. Los Angeles
is predicted to have temperatures in the 80s this week. Oh, yes, I still
believe that the earth is being warmed by the sun, not by humans.
If the sun suddenly were to cease its activity, we would instantly freeze.

Here are the recent monthly means for the International Sunspot Numbers:

November 2017 scored 5.7, which is the lowest ISN monthly mean for this current cycle.
December 2017 scored 8.2, which demonstrated a slight uptick in solar activity.

January 2018 has not yet been determined, but so far the mean is less than 6.0.
If the spotlessness continues into February, I predict that the monthly mean for
January might be between 5.1 to 5.6, which will be the lowest ISN for this cycle.

Below is the latest plot from the Royal Observatory of Belgium showing International
Monthly Sunspot Numbers. If you look at the plots for February during solar minimums,
February seems to have one of the lowest monthly means. In fact, look at February
2012, a time of solar maximum. February 2012 took a nosedive in sunspot activity.

Image

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Today at 0030 UT (Zulu time), January 31, 2018, NOAA has confirmed the appearance of a new Active Region, AR2697, which is now a Beta.

It can be seen in the Southern hemisphere in photos posted at The Sun Today: https://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 31 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Jan 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2697 S10E48 263 0010 Bxo 03 05 Beta

Thus, our streak of spotless has officially ended.
Belgium's consortium of international scientists has not yet reached a decision as to when this sunspot area emerged.

View the EISN plot at http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

On January 30, 2018, these are the figures reported at Belgium:

2018 01 30 2018.081 0 1.8 24 37

Zero sunspots with a standard deviation of 1.8
Although 24 stations reported no sunspots,
13 of the 37 stations reporting in saw sunspots, but
these 13 outliers have been rejected as of this time.

Belgium's comments for January 30, 2018 indicate no presence of an active region.

INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2018 Jan 30 12:30UTC

Solar activity was low, no C-class flares in past 24 h. The situation is
not expected to change, as there are no active regions on disk.

Proton flux levels are at background values and are expected to remain so.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Solar wind speed is at 340 km/s with interplanetary magnetic field
magnitude of 3 nT. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled and
are expected to remain so. Isolated active periods remain possible in the
next 24 h, due to the probable arrival of moderately fast solar wind
streams associated with a negative polarity diffuse equatorial coronal
hole.

On January 31, 2018, Belgium will issue their official comment at 1230 UT, which will be early in the morning Pacific Time.

Attachments
01-30-2018_Multiple flares (one B-class) from Beta AR 2697_goes-xray-flux.gif
01-30-2018_Multiple flares (one B-class) from Beta AR 2697_goes-xray-flux.gif (11.7 KiB) Viewed 1074 times

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Looking at the EISN text message from Belgium, three stations have
responded, but because the first station to respond had seen no
sunspots at all, it was rejected as an outlier. Thus, there is a standard
deviation of 1.0 with two responders showing an average mean of 13
for January 31, 2018.

2018 01 31 2018.084 13 1.0 2 3

As the daily reporting number increases, this estimated international
sunspot number (EISN) will fluctuate. So far, the average EISN for the
month of January is around 6.0, which is lower than December 2017,
but only slightly higher than November 2017.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

International reporting stations working with Belgium have not yet reached consensus for the last two days. However, Belgium probably will rule that one or both of these days did have sunspots because of the fleeting presence of Beta AR2697, and the high rejection rates of stations. Indeed, Belgium's January 31 comment states that based on 5 reporting stations, today's EISN is 12 sunspots.

Currently ... edited with new update --
On Jan. 30, 14 of 41 station reports, 34%, were rejected as outliers as they saw sunspots, while 27 agreed with a spotless sun.
On Jan. 31, 06 of 16 station reports, 37.5%, were rejected as outliers as they saw sunspots, while 10 agreed with a spotless sun.

2018 01 30 2018.081 0 0.0 27 41
2018 01 31 2018.084 0 0.0 10 16

On January 7 and 14, there were also discrepancies with high rejections rates, so Belgium could determine that one or both of these days did indeed have sunspots.
On Jan. 07, 10 of 28 station reports, 36%, were rejected as outliers as they saw sunspots, while 18 agreed with a spotless sun.
On Jan. 14, 10 of 27 station reports, 37%, were rejected as outliers as they saw sunspots, while 17 agreed with a spotless sun.

2018 01 07 2018.018 0 0.0 18 28
2018 01 08 2018.021 14 2.6 16 20
2018 01 09 2018.023 16 4.8 13 17
2018 01 10 2018.026 20 6.5 17 21
2018 01 11 2018.029 11 1.3 13 22
2018 01 12 2018.032 0 0.0 16 19
2018 01 13 2018.034 0 0.0 20 20
2018 01 14 2018.037 0 0.0 17 27

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 01-31-2018_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 01-31-2018_EISNcurrent.png (43.58 KiB) Viewed 1068 times

Here is Belgium's comment for January 31, 2018:

COMMENT: Solar activity was low, no C-class flares in past 24 h. There is
one new active region that emerged in the eastern hemisphere, it has beta
magnetic field configuration and is not expected to produce significant
flares in the coming hours.

Proton flux levels are at background values and are expected to remain so.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Solar wind speed is at 375 km/s with interplanetary magnetic field
magnitude of 7 nT. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet. Isolated active
periods are possible today, due to the probable arrival of moderately fast
solar wind streams associated with a negative polarity diffuse equatorial
coronal hole.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 012, BASED ON 05 STATIONS.

Attachments
solar image_01-31-2018_spotless sun_latest_256_HMIIF.jpg
solar image_01-31-2018_spotless sun_latest_256_HMIIF.jpg (15.88 KiB) Viewed 1069 times

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Now we can compare the two January 2018 versions of the EISN graph.

The unedited version, Plot #1, dated Jan. 31, 2018, contains input from reporting stations around the world,
while the revised version, Plot #2, has been edited by Belgium, and is dated February 1, 2018.

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 01-31-2018_1800 UT_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 01-31-2018_1800 UT_EISNcurrent.png (43.58 KiB) Viewed 1056 times
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 02-01-2018_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 02-01-2018_EISNcurrent.png (39.17 KiB) Viewed 1056 times

The revised version, as I predicted, is minus four spotless days due to fleeting sunspots
for a grand total of 15 spotless days in the month of January 2018.

Below is the graph of the International Sunspot Numbers with the revised February 2018 mean.
As you can see, the February 2018 ISN mean is slightly less than the January mean,
while the November 2017 means remains the lowest one of this current cycle.

Image

The red line is the current prediction of where we will be one year from now during this solar minimum.
The red shaded area is the expected standard deviation as we cannot predict how long this minimum will last.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Here is the ISN yearly sunspot means and smoothed cycles since 1700.
Are we to have a repeat of the 1700 years (15 years) or the 1720 years (10 years)?
Notice that in the very early 1700s, the first solar cycle had many days of spotlessness,
these years were a mini ice age. However, the second cycle in the mid 1700s did not
have as many days of spotlessness, and was slightly warmer.

Instead, will we experience an even longer solar minimum in 2018 and into the 2020s with a mini ice age?

Stay tuned.

Attachments
ISN Yearly Sunspot Numbers from 1700_wolfaml2.png
ISN Yearly Sunspot Numbers from 1700_wolfaml2.png (131.34 KiB) Viewed 1052 times

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

The beginning week of February has been constantly changing with new sunspots rapidly appearing, but then immediately decaying into plages.

Below is the report from NOAA for today, Feb. 5, 2018:
Notice that all the active regions (such as AR2699) are located in the Southern Hemisphere of the sun whereas two years ago, the majority were in the Northern Hemisphere. This is normal.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 36 Issued at 0030Z on 05 Feb 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 04 Feb
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 04/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2699 S04E74 171 0080 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 04/2400Z Feb
Nmbr Location Lo
2697 S09W23 268
2698 S03E47 198

II. Regions Due to Return 05 Feb to 07 Feb
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

Belgium's consortium of worldwide reporting stations shows that Sunday,
February 4, 2018 has scientists disagreeing once again with 21 of 30
stations reporting a spotless sun while nine view the dark cores of sunspots.
This is due to the recent appearance of AR2699.

2018 02 01 2018.086 0 0.0 21 22
2018 02 02 2018.089 0 0.0 16 22
2018 02 03 2018.092 0 0.0 15 17
2018 02 04 2018.095 0 0.0 21 30

For the latest view of the sun, please visit: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

The increased activity of the sun can be seen in the three day plot below:

Attachments
02-05-2018_Multiple C and B solar flares_AR2699_goes-xray-flux.gif
02-05-2018_Multiple C and B solar flares_AR2699_goes-xray-flux.gif (12.74 KiB) Viewed 1044 times

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