As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Below is the Belgium Royal Observatory's newly released monthly smoothed sunspot plot dated
January 1, 2018. cf. http://www.sidc.be/silso/home

monthly-sunspot-numbers-smoothed-2018-01.png
monthly-sunspot-numbers-smoothed-2018-01.png (142.27 KiB) Viewed 802 times

This plot reveals that we are already in the beginning phase of a deep solar minimum which started
in mid 2014 with its first spotless day. The solar maximum peaked during the years 2012 through 2014.

How long will this solar minimum last? Will this be another mini ice age or a deeper freeze?

Scientists do not know. This much is certain, though, 2018 will ring in the mini ice age with blizzards
and ice storms, which have already paralyzed most of the northern latitudes.

If you do not possess warm woolen mittens, scarves, and hats, now is the time to start knitting.

Below is the Monthly and smoothed sunspot number plot showing the last six cycles:
This plot should send chills into the hearts of global warmists for it heralds a mini ice age.

Attachments
Monthly sunspot plot 1954 to 12-01-2018.png
Monthly sunspot plot 1954 to 12-01-2018.png (113.96 KiB) Viewed 802 times

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Although NASA, NOAA, and http://www.spaceweather.com are reporting a spotless sun, which continue the New Year trend toward a spotless sun, Belgium's Royal Observatory and the consortium of international astronomers associated with it show an estimated sunspot number of 13 for January 4, 2018. Thus, the spotless count has been broken. Why the discrepancy between these agencies?

The latest solar photos from NASA taken at 2045 UT on January 4, 2018 show darkened sunspot cores in the NW area of the solar disc.

See for yourself, but note that this jpg is dynamic and will change about every 15 minutes.

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

Below is the dynamic EISN plot from Belgium showing a break in the spotless days since the beginning of the New Year 2018.

http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

NOAA has acknowledged the presence of a new Beta Active Region 2693 in the NW region of the solar disc.
cf: http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/ ... 105SRS.txt

Apparently, AR2693 remains small but stable as it is not rapidly increasing in size
per NASA. In a few days, this active region will be at the Western limb, where any
CME generated would be geo-directed. However, unlikely this may be, one can
never say "never" as sunspots have been known to rapidly increase.
cf. https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 5 Issued at 0030Z on 05 Jan 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 04 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 04/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2693 N18W40 333 0020 Cro 03 03 Beta

Belgium's Royal Observatory still shows this active region with 13 sunspots for January 4, 2018.
Currently, there have been no reports for Friday, January 5, 2018.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Today, AR2693 remains small but stable as it reaches the Western limb of the sun
according to photos from NASA. In fact, it seems to be decaying somewhat.

Belgium's Royal Observatory is plotting AR2693 with 11 sunspots for January 5, 2018,
down from 13 yesterday.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

January 6, 2018 reports from NOAA show that the active region has indeed decayed to an alpha.
During the next 24 hours, AR2693 may decay further to an alpha plage, one without sunspots.

  • Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
    SRS Number 6 Issued at 0030Z on 06 Jan 2018
    Report compiled from data received at SWO on 05 Jan
    I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 05/2400Z
    Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
    2693 N19W52 332 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha

So far, the international scientific community of astronomers working with Belgium has not given any input.
Perhaps by midnight Pacific time, some new data will be shown on the EISN plot below.
cf. http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Today, January 6, 2018, AR2693 is a tiny alpha active region close to the Western limb of the sun.

Belgium's EISN/SILSO plot shows only 11 sunspots.
cf. http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Maria wrote:

Today, January 6, 2018, AR2693 is a tiny alpha active region close to the Western limb of the sun.

Belgium's EISN/SILSO plot shows only 11 sunspots.
cf. http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

Below, NOAA is reporting that Alpha AR 2693 is steady:
Identical data given yesterday as to size and magnetic complexity.
However, early reporting from Belgium EISN/SILSO shows a
reduction from 11 to 10 sunspots.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 7 Issued at 0030Z on 07 Jan 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 06 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 06/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2693 N19W65 332 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha

NASA photos from The Sun Now, show a tiny active region
that is rotating very close to the Western limb.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

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