As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Comment from Belgium:

COMMENT: Solar activity increased during the period due to a new region
rotating around the East limb
in the Northern hemisphere. This new region
produced thirteen B-class flares among them the largest B8.9 flare peaking
at 14:59 UT yesterday
. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was at nominal levels. Solar activity is expected to be at low levels
with a significant chance for C-class flare.
Solar wind speed gradually increased as expected from around 320 km/s to
around 490 km/s during the period under the influence of positive polarity
extension of the northern polar coronal hole. Total magnetic field varied
from 2 to 12 nT, while Bz component varied from +10 to -9 nT. Geomagnetic
conditions were mostly quiet until 06:00 UT today, then both local index
(Dourbes) and planetary (NOAA) reached the value K = 3 due to the enhanced
solar wind speed. Mainly unsettled and active geomgnetic conditions can be
expected today and tomorrow.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 027, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.

From http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php ... &year=2018

SOMETHING IN THE OFFING: Just behind the sun's eastern limb, a hidden sunspot is crackling with solar flares. Yesterday, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded this movie of hot plasma leaping over the edge of the solar disk:

http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/h264/2 ... N12E89.mov.

In the past day alone, Earth-orbiting satellites have recorded almost a dozen B-class solar flares. Such relatively weak flares would never be mentioned during Solar Max, but any flare is remarkable during the current period of deepening Solar Minimum. In the next day or so, the underlying sunspot will be revealed by solar rotation, and we shall see if it has potential for stronger explosions.

NOAA recently recorded a C2 at 1821 UT today, May 23, 2018.
This most likely was from the new sunspot that is now rotating into view.

05-23-2018_New Active Region at Eastern Limb_C2_1821 UT_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif
05-23-2018_New Active Region at Eastern Limb_C2_1821 UT_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (11.58 KiB) Viewed 714 times

Nevertheless, The Sun Today has photos showing that another new active region is now present in the West (right). And it looks like a Beta. In fact, it is even bigger than AR2710, which is now showing signs of decay.

Look at this photo:

Attachments
solar image_05-23-2018_3 active regions in North_B1.1 at 2056 UT at East limb.jpg
solar image_05-23-2018_3 active regions in North_B1.1 at 2056 UT at East limb.jpg (153.99 KiB) Viewed 714 times

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Most recent image from NOAA's GOES X-ray flux (5 minute data).

05-23-2018_active solar regions with lots of flaring_goes-xray-flux.gif
05-23-2018_active solar regions with lots of flaring_goes-xray-flux.gif (15.23 KiB) Viewed 713 times

Notice how active the sun has become within the last two days compared with Monday, May 21.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Newest report from NOAA: http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/ ... 524SRS.txt

:Product: 0524SRS.txt
:Issued: 2018 May 24 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 144 Issued at 0030Z on 24 May 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 23 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 23/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2710 N18E38 222 0010 Bxo 06 02 Beta - [Northeast (left hand side) + Area is now 10 was 20]
2711 N06W28 288 0040 Dao 05 08 Beta - [Northwest (right hand side)]

IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 23/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 24 May to 26 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Today's comments from the Royal Observatory in Belgium: http://www.sidc.be/products/meu/

COMMENT: Newly numbered Catania sunspot group 84 rotating around the East
limb produced multiple B flares yesterday. The largest flare was a C2.0
flare peaking at 18:21 UT.
NOAA Active Regions 2710 and 2711 were mostly
inactive. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in
available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at
nominal levels. Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with some
probability for C-class flares.

Solar wind parameters decreasing varitations indicate fainting influence of
positive polarity extension of the northern polar coronal hole. Solar wind
speed gradually decreased during the period till around 470 km/s after
reaching maximum of 550 km/s at 17:00 UT yesterday. Total magnetic field
magnitude declined from 6.5 to 2 nT, while Bz component is varying now
between -1.7 and +1.7 nT. Geomagnetic conditions reached unsettled levels
(K= 3) during 06 - 15 UT yesterday, then both local index (Dourbes) and
planetary (NOAA) returned to quiet levels. Mainly quiet geomgnetic
conditions can be expected from now.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 035, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.

There are currently three active sunspot areas: AR2710, AR2711, and the new Catalina Group 84, which is now numbered AR2712 by NOAA (see the chart below). The most active of the three is AR2712, which has just come around the bend on the left side of the solar disc.

With these three active regions, the number of EISN has increased to 36, but it could get higher as Beta AR2711 is rapidly developing and AR2712 is the most active to date. Even though AR2710 has decayed significantly, it was recently recorded producing a B8.9 at 1230 UT, May 24, 2018.

See this NOAA website: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/sola ... nt-reports

# Missing data: ////

Updated every 5 minutes.

Edited Events for 2018 May 24

#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5390 + 0258 0320 0339 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.0 5.1E-04

5400 + 0616 0623 0635 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B4.5 3.3E-04

5410 + 1116 1120 1138 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.2 1.2E-04

5420 + 1222 1230 1235 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B9.8 4.2E-04 2710
5420 1226 1228 1234 SVI 3 FLA N16E33 SF 2710
5420 B1229 U1237 1247 HOL 3 FLA N16E34 SF ERU 2710

5430 1353 1401 1405 HOL 3 FLA N14E79 SF 2712

5440 + 1528 1532 1536 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.4 4.8E-05

5450 + 1608 1615 1622 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B4.4 2.1E-04

5460 1734 1737 1744 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.2 5.1E-05

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Here is an explanation by http://www.spaceweather for May 24, 2018.

SOLAR MINIMUM SUNSPOTS: Lack of sunspots is a sign of Solar Minimum and, for most of 2018, the face of the sun has been resolutely blank. Today, Solar Minimum is taking the day off. Two sunspot groups are emerging on opposite sides of the sun:

Astronomers with safely-filtered solar telescopes are encouraged to train their optics on these regions. The one on the right [AR2711] is growing rapidly, while the one on the left [AR2712] is crackling with B- and C-class solar flares.

Such relatively weak flares would seldom be mentioned during Solar Max, but any flare is remarkable during the current period of deepening Solar Minimum. Since yesterday, Earth-orbiting satellites have detected almost two dozen minor eruptions. Their combined effect may be noticable to radio operators in the form of HF brownouts and other propagation effects.

Also noticeable today is the lack of Active Regions from the Southern Hemisphere of the Sun. Today, we see three active regions, all of which are from the Northern Hemisphere. As the solar minimum deepens with fewer active regions, and then progresses to form a new peak of solar activity (solar maximum), fewer active regions will come from the North along with many spotless days, perhaps with 30 or even 50 or more spotless days in a row. Then gradually more active regions will come from the Southern Hemisphere, where ultimately the majority of active regions will be found during the peak of the next solar maximum.

Below is the list of Estimated International Sunspot Numbers (EISN) for May 2018 from the Royal Observatory in Belgium. The average mean EISN is now 10 with 10 spotless days for May 2018.

Notice that the Standard Deviation (std) was 2.0 or greater on May 4, 6, 8, 9, 23, and 24.
Also note that outliers deleted [the difference between stations accepted (st) and stations reporting (str)] totaled five or greater than on the following days (these numbers are subject to change as stations send in their reports).
May 4 (14 outliers deleted), std = 2.8
May 6 (7 outliers deleted), std = 2.3
May 7 (11 outliers deleted), std = 1.7
May 8 (10 outliers deleted), std = 5.7
May 9 (7 outliers deleted), std = 4.0
May 10 (9 outliers deleted), std = 1.9
May 11 (7 outliers deleted), std = 1.7
May 12 (5 outliers deleted), std = 1.9
May 13 (8 outliers deleted), std = 1.7
May 21 (9 outliers deleted), std = 1.5
May 22 (7 outliers deleted), std = 1.8
May 23 (7 outliers deleted), std = 4.7
May 24 (7 outliers deleted), std = 6.5

Again, the average mean EISN to date is 10.

Date . . . . . . . . . EISN std st str
2018 05 01 2018.330 0 0.0 38 40
2018 05 02 2018.333 0 0.0 33 36
2018 05 03 2018.336 0 0.0 40 43
2018 05 04 2018.338 13 2.8 30 44
2018 05 05 2018.341 15 1.9 37 41
2018 05 06 2018.344 16 2.3 38 45
2018 05 07 2018.347 15 1.7 40 51
2018 05 08 2018.349 20 5.7 38 48
2018 05 09 2018.352 21 4.0 39 46
2018 05 10 2018.355 12 1.9 35 44
2018 05 11 2018.358 11 1.7 35 42
2018 05 12 2018.360 13 1.9 29 34
2018 05 13 2018.363 12 1.7 20 28
2018 05 14 2018.366 0 0.0 34 37
2018 05 15 2018.368 0 0.0 30 41
2018 05 16 2018.371 0 0.0 34 35
2018 05 17 2018.374 0 0.0 38 39
2018 05 18 2018.377 0 0.0 36 37
2018 05 19 2018.379 0 0.0 27 31
2018 05 20 2018.382 0 0.0 33 36
2018 05 21 2018.385 11 1.5 31 40
2018 05 22 2018.388 13 1.8 35 42
2018 05 23 2018.390 27 4.7 28 35
2018 05 24 2018.393 35 6.5 27 34

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Calm before the storm?

05-24-2018_solar activity diminishing_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif
05-24-2018_solar activity diminishing_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (10.87 KiB) Viewed 697 times

Note: AR2711 is on the right, while AR2712 is on the left.

solar image_05-24-2018_3 active regions - AR2710, 2711 (West), and 2712 (East).jpg
solar image_05-24-2018_3 active regions - AR2710, 2711 (West), and 2712 (East).jpg (132.3 KiB) Viewed 697 times

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Latest NOAA observation shows that 2710 has now rapidly decayed to an alpha, but AR2711and AR2712 are now rapidly developing. Could this bring on another surprise much as we experienced in September 2017 where the active regions unleashed huge X-flares?

:Issued: 2018 May 25 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 145 Issued at 0030Z on 25 May 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 24 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 24/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2710 N17E25 222 0000 Axx 01 01 Alpha
2711 N06W41 288 0060 Cai 06 06 Beta
2712 N13E75 172 0080 Cso 06 02 Beta

IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 24/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 25 May to 27 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

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