As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

[Maria]

There is a new active region on the solar disc but it is not actively flaring. EISN for today is at 12 according to Belgium.
GOES X-ray flux shows the level of solar flares remains within the A1 to A3 levels, typical of solar minimums.

Here is the comment for today from Belgium's Royal Observatory:

COMMENT: Solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours. There are no
significant Active Regions on the solar disk. Flaring conditions are
expected to remain quiet with a very small change of C-class flares.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection have been observed. The greater
than 10 MeV solar protons flux remained at background levels over the past
24 hours and are expected to remain so.

The solar wind speed has been slowly decreasing from around 650 to 525 km/s
over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated
around 5 nT. The Bz component was largely positive, fluctuating between -5
and +5 nT.

The elevated solar wind speeds were a consequence of a large Coronal Hole
(which reached the central meridian on December 04). The enhanced solar
wind conditions are beginning to abate but could still cause enhanced
geomagnetic activity.

Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-3 (NOAA) and local K index
1-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 012, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.

The EISN data from Belgium shows no spotless days now for five days.
01 January : 13
02 January : 18
03 January : 18
04 January : 14
05 January : 12

[Maria]

Sorry for the interruption of solar news. Our board was under attack.
Due to this solar streak of spotless (12 days now), we are beginning to feel the winter solar minimum chill.
It was very cold last night here in Los Angeles. Very close to freezing. Brrr.

Here is the latest comment from Belgium:

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels. The Sun was spotless for
the 12th consecutive day (SILSO). No coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed over the last 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at
nominal values. A narrow extension of the positive polarity northern polar
coronal hole (CH) has transited the central meridian.

Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

Solar wind speed showed a generally declining trend, from about 355 km/s at
the beginning of the period to 315 km/s at the end (DSCOVR). Bz ranged from
-4 to +4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field remained chiefly directed
towards the Sun (negative sector). Quiet geomagnetic conditions were
observed.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue, until the arrival of
the wind stream associated with the extension of the northern polar CH,
currently expected for late on 28 or on 29 December. This may result in
active geomagnetic conditions, a minor storming interval is not excluded.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.

[Maria]

# Edited Events for 2019 Jan 02
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7650 + 0144 0150 0155 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.8 1.2E-04 2732

After two weeks of spotless days, we have a New Year's Surprise: new rapidly developing Active Region 2732 (with approximately 13 sunspots) has unleashed a Solar Class B2.8 flare.

Reference: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/sola ... nt-reports

[Maria]

Rapidly growing Active Region 273 continues to increase in size. It unleashed another Solar Class B-flare, a B1.2,
at 2019-01-02 18:38:00 UTC

Look at the size of this active region! I would have posted a solar image of AR2732, but space will not allow it.
Please visit: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

An astronomer affiliated with Belgium posted that AR2732 is now composed of 24 sunspots.
It appears to have a beta configuration now.

COMMENT: The new bipolar active region (NOAA 2732) emerged between the
central meridian and the West limb and produced a B2.8 flare peaking at
01:50 UT today. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed over the last 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at
nominal values. Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with
small probability for C-class flares.
Solar wind speed gradually decreased from about 400 till 350 km/s (DSCOVR).
Bz varied between -3.9 and +2 nT. The geomagnetic conditions were quiet.
Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions can be expected from January 4th
due to possible influence of the wind stream associated with the negative
polarity equatorial coronal hole.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 016, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.

[Maria]

New comment from Belgium for January 3, 2019.

The Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) is now up to 18.
Please visit: http://www.sidc.be/silso/home

COMMENT: A new active region (NOAA 2732) is visible on the West limb and
produced B1.2 flare peaking at 18:38 UT yesterday. No geoeffective coronal
mass ejections (CMEs) were observed over the last 24 hours. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal values. Solar activity is expected
to remain at low levels with small probabailty for C-class flares.
Solar wind speed gradually decreased from about 350 till 300 km/s (DSCOVR).
Bz varied between -2.5 and +2.5 nT. The geomagnetic conditions were quiet.
Unsettled geomagnetic conditions can be expected today later (January 3).
Active geomagnetic conditions can be expected from January 6 due to
possible influence of the wind stream associated with the negative polarity
equatorial coronal hole.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 017, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.

[Maria]

AR2732 departs after releasing several B class solar flares.

[Maria]

For this current solar minimum, there was a huge B8.6 solar flare at 0551 UTC, January 6, 2019 per NOAA. Since AR2732 is geodirective at the Western Limb of the solar disc, if we were to have a CME, it could strike our power grids as the earth's magnetic shield is down during this solar minimum.

This solar flares and several others have been attributed to Active Region 2732, which has been active these past five days per NOAA.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/sola ... nt-reports

Edited Events for 2019 Jan 06
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7740 + 0156 0201 0209 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.1 1.6E-04 2732

7750 0335 0341 0347 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.3 7.0E-05 2732

7770 0423 0452 0514 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.1 4.6E-04 2732

7760 + 0532 0551 0601 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B8.6 9.7E-04 2732

Not surprisingly, the EISN data from Belgium shows no spotless days now for five days.

01 January : 13
02 January : 18
03 January : 18
04 January : 14
05 January : 12

Confirming this data, the GOES X-ray flux has been showing erratic B flaring occurring over the past five days, something we have not seen in months.
Are we starting to emerge from this solar minimum?

In addition, apparently a new active region seems to be making an appearance on the Eastern limb of the solar disk. Will it be ephemeral or will it develop into another Beta as did AR2732? So far, it appears to have the reverse polarity of the new solar cycle 25.

What is surprising is that there is a huge coronal hole which is causing massive solar winds and auroras worldwide. Solar winds are typically seen during solar minimums. So, we could remain in this solar minimum for some time.

SOLAR WIND IGNITES BIG AURORAS: Earth is entering a stream of solar wind flowing from a large hole in the sun's atmosphere. First contact on Jan. 4th ignited big auroras around the Arctic Circle. Alexander Kuznetsov sends this picture from Rovaniemi, Finland:

source: http://www.spaceweather.com