As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

The sun has become active once again with three sunspot areas:

  • AR2555, a beta in the southern hemisphere
    AR2666, a beta in the northern hemisphere
    One as of yet unnamed region in the northern hemisphere near the right limb of the solar disk.

Since sunspot areas tend to quickly appear and then decline, some are not given an official sunspot area.

Here is the recent list of sun flares:

Edited Events for 2017 Jul 13

#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

9430 0000 //// 0329 PAL C RSP 080-180 CTM/1
9430 0007 //// 0507 PAL C RSP 025-054 VI/2

9510 0406 0415 0706 LEA G RNS 245 780

9440 0413 0413 0413 PAL G RBR 245 100

9450 0425 //// 1046 SVI C RSP 102-180 CTM/1
9450 + 0449 0512 0541 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B5.5 1.4E-03 2665
9450 + 0456 0456 0456 PAL G RBR 245 140
9450 0459 //// 0500 SVI C RSP 025-081 III/1
9450 0509 //// 0742 SVI C RSP 025-103 VI/1

9460 0620 0620 0620 SVI G RBR 245 140

9470 0627 0627 0627 SVI G RBR 245 100

9480 0700 0700 0701 SVI G RBR 245 130

9490 0836 //// 0836 SVI C RSP 025-046 III/1

9500 0944 //// 0944 SVI C RSP 025-078 III/1

9530 + 1112 //// 1251 SVI C RSP 025-180 VI/1

9540 + 1641 1644 1650 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.4 1.4E-04 2665

9550 + 1729 1730 1730 SAG G RBR 245 310

9560 1738 1743 1750 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B4.8 2.6E-04 2665
9560 1742 1742 1745 HOL 3 FLA S08W29 SF ERU 2665

9570 1749 1754 1800 HOL 3 FLA N11W68 SF ERU 2665
9570 + 1750 1755 1802 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B6.1 3.4E-04 2665

9580 1923 //// 1924 SAG U RSP 102-126 III/1

9590 + 1932 1940 1949 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B5.8 4.7E-04

9600 2001 2005 2011 G13 5 XRA 1-8A C8.4 2.9E-03
9600 2005 2008 2009 SAG G RBR 410 79
9600 2006 //// 2025 SAG C RSP 025-169 II/1 770
9600 2006 2008 2011 SAG G RBR 4995 28
9600 2007 2007 2010 SAG G RBR 610 20
9600 + 2007 //// 2016 SAG C RSP 025-180 III/2
9600 2007 2008 2011 SAG G RBR 8800 39
9600 2007 2008 2011 SAG G RBR 15400 72
9600 2008 2008 2008 SAG G RBR 245 170

9610 + 2044 2048 2052 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B5.7 1.7E-04
9610 2048 2049 2052 HOL 3 FLA N12W70 SF DSD

9620 + 2127 2131 2133 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C2.0 3.0E-04

9630 2133 //// 2133 SAG C RSP 025-047 III/1

9640 + 2146 2155 2158 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C5.9 1.7E-03

9640 + 2153 //// 2157 SAG U RSP 025-081 V/2

9650 + 2217 2217 2217 PAL G RBR 245 180

9660 + 2227 2227 2228 PAL G RBR 245 310

9670 + 2233 2233 2233 PAL G RBR 245 130

9680 2236 2236 2241 PAL G RBR 245 1000

9690 + 2244 2244 2245 PAL G RBR 245 200

9700 2252 2252 2253 PAL G RBR 245 150

9710 + 2256 2256 2259 PAL G RBR 245 1000

9720 2310 2310 2310 PAL G RBR 245 130

9730 + 2330 2340 2344 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C3.0 1.4E-03
9730 2333 2333 2337 HOL 3 FLA N12W71 SF DSD

9730 2338 //// 2341 PAL C RSP 025-082 III/1
9730 + 2338 2339 2340 PAL G RBR 410 1200
9730 + 2338 2339 2339 PAL G RBR 610 530
9730 + 2338 2339 2339 PAL G RBR 245 190

9740 2354 2354 2354 PAL G RBR 410 100

ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/eve ... terday.txt

Notice that most of these flares do not list the Active Region which is responsible, although Belgium said that AR2665 is the only sunspot area that is actively flaring.

N12W70, and N1271 could be the position of the unnamed sunspot area on the western limb (right side) of the sun.

Last week, we had an unnamed solar flare located on the western limb of the sun that dramatically grew, unleashed an M1.3 flare, and then disappeared as rapidly as it had appeared. It might return on July 20.

The flaring colored in red has not been yet identified either, a C8.5 and C5.9.

Below is a recent x-ray plot showing the multiple C-flaring:

07-13-2017_Multiple C Flaring_Impulsive_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif
07-13-2017_Multiple C Flaring_Impulsive_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (11.78 KiB) Viewed 1232 times

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

If you look at the last image I posted, the x-ray GOES 1-minute plot, you will see the upward trend at the end.

Well, this was the beginning of a long M2.4 solar flare unleashed along with a significant CME directed toward the earth.
The x-ray GOES plot immediately below shows the long five hour decline of this monster M2.4 flare, which peaked at 0209 UT on july 14, 2017. Whenever M-Class solar flares have a long duration like this one, they affect the earth more strongly as seen in the analysis below from spaceweather.com.

07-14-2017_M2.4 at 0209 UT_ _AR2665_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif
07-14-2017_M2.4 at 0209 UT_ _AR2665_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (8.44 KiB) Viewed 1230 times

See http://www.spaceweather.com

STRONG SOLAR FLARE AND CME: After days of suspenseful quiet, huge sunspot AR2665 finally erupted on July 14th (0209 UT), producing a powerful and long-lasting M2-class solar flare. Extreme ultraviolet telescopes onboard NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast:]
Image

Remarkably, the explosion persisted for more than two hours, producing a sustained fusillade of X-rays and energetic protons that ionized the upper layers of Earth's atmosphere. Shortwave radio blackouts were subsequently observed over the Pacific Ocean and especially around the Arctic Circle. This map from NOAA shows the affected geographic regions.

Of even greater interest is the coronal mass ejection (CME). The explosion hurled a bright CME away from the blast site, and it appears to be heading for Earth: [click to view]

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2017/ ... vpdqb83f52

This expanding cloud will likely reach our planet on July 16th, possibly sparking geomagnetic storms and high-latitude auroras when it arrives. Stay tuned for improved predictions as NOAA analysts model the trajectory and potency of the incoming CME.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Notice that we have a new sunspot that is on the right (northwest) limb of the sun? It was the one I predicted above.

It also has been flaring, and when AR2665 (SW) unleashed the M2.4 flare, sunspot areas AR2666 (NW) and especially AR2667 (NW) were also flaring simultaneously. When looking at all three sunspot areas in the image posted above, it is obvious that all three were emitting a reddish-purple glow. The sun was erupting en masse.

# Edited Events for 2017 Jul 14
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

9760 0012 0050 0100 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C1.4 2.9E-03 2665

9750 0046 0046 0047 LEA G RBR 245 140

9760 0053 0211 0234 PAL G RBR 245 2400

9780 0103 0113 0218 PAL G RBR 410 1500 2665

9800 0104 0114 0218 LEA G RNS 410 2100

9780 0107 0209 0324 G15 5 XRA 1-8A M2.4 1.3E-01 2665
9780 0107 0113 0212 PAL G RBR 610 1600 2665

9800 0107 0113 0218 LEA G RNS 610 2100

9780 0109 0128 0155 PAL G RBR 1415 440 2665
9780 0110 0215 0455 LEA 3 FLA S06W29 1N UMB 2665

9800 0110 0214 0626 LEA G RNS 245 3300

9780 + 0110 0151 0154 LEA G RBR 2695 130 2665
9780 + 0110 0126 0145 LEA G RBR 4995 320 2665
9780 + 0114 0126 0131 LEA G RBR 8800 110 2665
9780 + 0123 0126 0138 LEA G RBR 15400 140 2665

9770 0136 0137 0139 LEA 3 FLA N11W73 SF 2667

9790 0236 0237 0237 PAL G RBR 245 100

9810 0353 //// 0745 SVI C RSP 037-171 IV/1 2665
9810 B0424 U0438 0648 SVI 3 FLA S08W28 1F ERU 2665

9820 0655 0702 0709 SVI 3 FLA S08W30 SF ERU 2665

9830 + 0731 0733 0735 LEA 3 FLA N11W76 SF 2667

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar ... nt-reports

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Sunspot area AR2667 continues to be active as it departs our view of the sun and rotates around.
AR2666 is not as active, but AR2665 continues to flare as seen below and could unleash another M-Flare today.
There is a 10 percent chance of another M-flaring, but if it strikes us, as it did last evening, it becomes 100%.
We just had another C-flare, so the sun is no longer asleep and could blast us at any time.

# Edited Events for 2017 Jul 14
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

9760 0012 0050 0100 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C1.4 2.9E-03 2665

9750 0046 0046 0047 LEA G RBR 245 140

9760 0053 0211 0234 PAL G RBR 245 2400

9780 0103 0113 0218 PAL G RBR 410 1500 2665
9780 0104 0114 0218 LEA G RNS 410 2100 2665
9780 0107 0209 0324 G15 5 XRA 1-8A M2.4 1.3E-01 2665
9780 0107 0113 0212 PAL G RBR 610 1600 2665
9780 0107 0113 0218 LEA G RNS 610 2100 2665
9780 0109 0128 0155 PAL G RBR 1415 440 2665
9780 0110 0215 0455 LEA 3 FLA S06W29 1N UMB 2665
9780 0110 0214 0626 LEA G RNS 245 3300 2665
9780 + 0110 0151 0154 LEA G RBR 2695 130 2665
9780 + 0110 0126 0145 LEA G RBR 4995 320 2665
9780 + 0114 0126 0131 LEA G RBR 8800 110 2665
9780 + 0123 0126 0138 LEA G RBR 15400 140 2665

9770 0136 0137 0139 LEA 3 FLA N11W73 SF 2667

9790 0236 0237 0237 PAL G RBR 245 100

9780 0353 //// 0745 SVI C RSP 037-171 IV/1 2665

9810 B0424 U0438 0648 SVI 3 FLA S08W28 1F ERU 2665

9820 0655 0702 0709 SVI 3 FLA S08W30 SF ERU 2665

9830 + 0731 0733 0735 LEA 3 FLA N11W76 SF 2667

9840 0816 0816 0818 SVI 3 FLA N08W77 SF ERU 2667

9850 0852 //// 0852 SVI C RSP 025-041 III/1 2667
9850 0900 0905 0915 SVI 3 FLA N08W77 SF ERU 2667

9860 0902 //// 0903 SVI C RSP 025-074 III/1 2667
9860 0904 0907 0908 LEA 3 FLA N12W76 SF 2667

9870 0926 0926 0927 SVI 3 FLA N08W77 SF ERU 2667

9880 1004 1004 1008 SVI 3 FLA N08W79 SF ERU 2667

9890 1152 1153 1155 SVI 3 FLA N08W79 SF ERU 2667

9900 1205 1205 1208 SVI 3 FLA N08W79 SF ERU 2667

9910 1700 //// 1700 SAG C RSP 025-030 III/1

9920 1820 1822 1825 HOL 3 FLA S06W41 SF 2665

9930 + 1918 1925 1944 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C1.4 1.7E-03 --- [most recent flare.]

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar ... nt-reports

Below is a global plot showing that other forms of spectral energies are going right through the core of our earth and heating us. This could possibly trigger earthquake and volcanic activities. Reference: this global plot is normally black.The red in the Arctic area and the lime in the Antarctic means that both polar areas areas are being bombarded by these energies.

Here is an explanation from NOAA: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-reg ... ions-d-rap

The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.

The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause.

The purple and blue halo around the West Coast shows that we just recently had the C1.4 solar flare, which irradiated us with x-rays.

Attachments
Global. 07-14-2017 1957 UT.png
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Look again, now the global plot shows a minor proton flux, with a display in bright yellow and red, so we are being bombarded by protons. Both my husband and I feel wiped out.

Global. 07-14-2017 Proton Flux 2245 UT.png
Global. 07-14-2017 Proton Flux 2245 UT.png (29.3 KiB) Viewed 1221 times

Cllck this link for further updates: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-reg ... ions-d-rap

Below is a more complete description of what is happening, but I have only included two paragraphs. To view the entire document, please visit: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/global ... umentation

Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.

Absorption is the process by which the energy of radio waves is converted into heat and electromagnetic (EM) noise through interactions between the radio wave, ionospheric electrons, and the neutral atmosphere (for a more extensive description of the absorption process see Davies, 1990). Most of the absorption occurs in the ionospheric D region (50–90 km altitude) where the product of the electron density and the electron-neutral collision frequency attains a maximum. Within this region the neutral density is relatively constant over time, so variations in the local electron density drive the total amount of absorption. The electron density is a function of many parameters and normally varies with local time, latitude, season, and over the solar cycle. These "natural" changes are predictable, and affect absorption only moderately at the lowest HF frequencies. Much more significant changes to the absorption strength are seen as a result of sudden increases of electron density in the D region (the classic short wave fade) due to, for example, solar X-ray flares on the dayside or solar proton precipitation in the polar regions. ...

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Within one hour, the minor proton flux has increased now showing an orange hue at the southern pole. I am going to take a nap.

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Global. 07-14-2017 Proton Flux 2351 UT.png
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

This in from http://www.spaceweather.com

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: NOAA forecasters have analyzed this morning's solar flare and CME and they have issued a geomagnetic storm watch for July 16th and 17th. Storms could reach category G2 (moderately strong) on both days. High latitude sky watchers can expect midnight auroras on Sunday and Monday.

Belgium said that the CME could reach us by Sunday at noon (UT) and continue until Monday. Thus, Texas could begin to feel the effects of a G2 starting at 7 AM CDT on Sunday, unless the CME arrives earlier.

NOAA predicts that there is a 30 percent chance that AR2665 could unleash another M-class solar flare, and a 5% chance of an X-flare. Although AR2667 is departing our view of the sun, it could also unleash a surprise as it will be geo-effective.

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