As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Barbara, It was taken by colin palmer on October 13, 2018 @ tromso
Lovely aurora. One of the best I have seen.

Here is October 16th forecast by Belgium's Royal Observatory at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu/

COMMENT: There is one active regions visible on the solar disk (NOAA 2725),
with alpha magnetic field configuration and one sunspot. No C-class flares
in past 24 h. Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar
protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours.

The solar wind speed is at 520 km/s with interplanetary magnetic fields of
4 nT. The Earth is under the influence of a high speed solar wind stream.
Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled, with an active period
at Dourbes (K = 4) on October 15 at 21:00 UT. More quiet to unsettled
conditions expected for the next 48 h (active periods remain possible).

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.

Although tiny active region AR2725 is decaying, it seems to persist.
October 16 was spotless, but the 17th could show one or more sunspots at AR2725.
GOES X-ray flux shows solar activity in the A0 range, which is typical of solar minimums.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Official comment from Belgium's Royal Observatory:

COMMENT: There are no active regions visible on the solar disk. No C-class
flares in past 24 h. Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar
protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours.

The solar wind speed is at 430 km/s with interplanetary magnetic fields of
4 nT. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet and are expected to remain so.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 011, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.

The GOES X-ray flux continues in the A0 range, typical of solar minimums.
Tiny AR2725 still persists, but could decay at any time, only to resurface.
Again, this is typical of solar minimums.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Here is the text message from Belgium's Royal Observatory showing that the latest active region AR2725 has now been reduced to an H-alpha plage, an white area on the sun without any sunspots, but these plages have been known to come back to live and become active again.

http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

2018 10 01 2018.749 17 2.0 30 36
2018 10 02 2018.752 15 1.9 28 33
2018 10 03 2018.755 13 1.6 36 43
2018 10 04 2018.758 11 1.7 27 39
2018 10 05 2018.760 0 0.0 41 44
2018 10 06 2018.763 0 0.0 29 32
2018 10 07 2018.766 0 0.0 29 30
2018 10 08 2018.768 0 0.0 36 36
2018 10 09 2018.771 0 0.0 39 41
2018 10 10 2018.774 0 0.0 35 37
2018 10 11 2018.777 7 5.9 28 28
2018 10 12 2018.779 13 7.4 38 41
2018 10 13 2018.782 25 5.6 29 34
2018 10 14 2018.785 23 3.1 29 34
2018 10 15 2018.788 12 7.7 29 31
2018 10 16 2018.790 0 0.0 31 35
2018 10 17 2018.793 11 1.2 20 29
2018 10 18 2018.796 0 0.0 30 31
2018 10 19 2018.799 0 0.0 1 1

GOES X-ray flux shows that the sun is now at A0 levels, with an occasional rise to A1, which is indicative that the sun is deep within the solar minimum.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

At http://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/, the sun can be observed without any dark sunspots.

These sites have dynamic links, so I cannot link directly to these sites and display these graphs and pictures as that would be a violation of internet protocols.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Today, October 21, 2018, AR2725 apparently is making another reappearance before
it departs for a two week trip to the other side of the sun by October 23, 2018.
See: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

Earlier at 21 Oct 2018, 1230UT, The Royal Observatory at Belgium issued this comment:

There are no active regions visible on the solar disk. No C-class
flares in past 24 h. Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels. ...
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.

The GOES X-ray flux shows a minor disturbance of the force! :P
The level of flaring has peaked in the medium-high A1 range.
See: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

The Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) plot shows a standard deviation of 3.1.
Nine of the 27 reporting stations have been ruled to be outside the average (outliers),
so their results have been discarded. Thus, only the results of 18 stations have been
posted. With the active region now visible in the Western USA, nine more reporting
stations will cause the results to shift showing at least seven to ten sunspots.

2018 10 18 2018.796 0 0.0 32 33
2018 10 19 2018.799 0 0.0 32 32
2018 10 20 2018.801 0 0.0 28 28
2018 10 21 2018.804 0 3.1 18 27

Update: More stations across the globe are reporting: @ 10:42 AM PDT

2018 10 19 2018.799 0 0.0 32 32
2018 10 20 2018.801 0 0.0 28 28
2018 10 21 2018.804 0 3.1 19 28

To see the latest results of the EISN plot, please visit:
http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Belgium's EISN text messages for Oct. 19 - 21, 2018 shows some sightings of sunspots (former Active Region 2725?).
The standard deviation has decreased from 3.1 to 2.8. Nine reports of the 32 remain as outliers (32 - 9 = 23)

2018 10 19 2018.799 0 0.0 32 32
2018 10 20 2018.801 0 0.0 28 28
2018 10 21 2018.804 0 2.8 23 32

www.spaceweather claims that there are no sunspots.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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No new sunspots have been reported. AR2725 is now a plage.

Report from Belgium's Royal Observatory is immediately below:

COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. No significant
flares have been recorded. There are currently no significant Active
Regions on the solar disk.
A region of low-latitude negative polarity
patchy coronal hole passed solar disk central meridian yesterday. No Earth
directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. The greater than
10MeV proton flux remained at background levels over the past 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a low
probability of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares.
The solar wind speed has fluctuated between 350 and 400 km/s over the past
24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated between 5 nT and
10 nT. The Bz component fluctuated around 0 nT, ranging between -10 and +10
nT. The region of low-latitude negative polarity patchy coronal hole that
passed the solar disk central meridian yesterday may enhance solar wind
speeds at Earth over the next couple of days. Geomagnetic conditions ranged
between Kp index 1-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-3 (Dourbes) over the past
24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 24 STATIONS.

2018 10 01 2018.749 17 2.1 33 39
2018 10 02 2018.752 15 1.9 30 35
2018 10 03 2018.755 13 1.6 36 45
2018 10 04 2018.758 11 1.7 27 42
2018 10 05 2018.760 0 0.0 44 47
2018 10 06 2018.763 0 0.0 32 35
2018 10 07 2018.766 0 0.0 31 32
2018 10 08 2018.768 0 0.0 38 38
2018 10 09 2018.771 0 0.0 41 43
2018 10 10 2018.774 0 0.0 38 40
2018 10 11 2018.777 7 4.6 25 31
2018 10 12 2018.779 16 4.8 34 44
2018 10 13 2018.782 26 6.2 31 36
2018 10 14 2018.785 23 3.1 30 37
2018 10 15 2018.788 11 8.1 32 34
2018 10 16 2018.790 0 0.0 34 38
2018 10 17 2018.793 11 1.2 22 35
2018 10 18 2018.796 0 0.0 33 34
2018 10 19 2018.799 0 0.0 34 34
2018 10 20 2018.801 0 0.0 32 32
2018 10 21 2018.804 0 0.0 25 36
2018 10 22 2018.807 0 0.0 32 37

EISN plot above shows that of the 36 reporting stations on October 21, 2018 (Sunday),
25 reports have been accepted, while 11 have been rejected as outliers.
There is no standard deviation.

By November 1, 2018, we should know if Belgium will assign sunspot numbers as
11 stations is a lot of outliers, and must be considered in the final data analysis.

We have not had a major solar flare since October 13, 2018 when one registered as a B2.3.
Data below is from GOES X-Ray Flux.
For the most current results, please visit: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

Beginning - 2018-10-13 13:28:00 UTC - A2.2

Maximum - 2018-10-13 13:34:00 UTC - B2.3

End - - - 2018-10-13 13:42:00 UTC - B1.3

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Currently, we are in a spotless phase. There are no visible sunspots on the face of the sun. In other words, there are no active regions, and we are still in a deep solar minimum.

How long will this current solar minimum continue? Scientists do not know and will not know for at least six more months or perhaps six more years.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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