As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Image

Big sunspot AR2644 has multiple dark cores as large as Earth and a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors latent energy for strong M-class explosions. So far the smaller sunspot, AR2645 [a Beta], is the more active of the two, producing C-flares at a 5x greater rate.

http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php ... &year=2017

Spaceweather announced a 15 percent chance of an M-flare today (March 28) and 10 percent tomorrow (March 29).
Note that Sunspoit 2644 is geo-centered.

Here is a recap of all events on March 28, 2017 from http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar ... nt-reports

:Product: 20170328events.txt
:Created: 2017 Mar 28 1852 UT
:Date: 2017 03 28

Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov

#

Missing data: ////

Updated every 5 minutes.

Edited Events for 2017 Mar 28

#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

50 0001 0001 0009 LEA 3 FLA S11E57 SF 2645

70 + 0019 0027 0035 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C1.1 8.1E-04 2644 [1]
70 + 0021 0025 0042 HOL 3 FLA N13E18 SF ERU 2644

80 + 0048 //// 0048 LEA C RSP 025-115 III/1 2645
80 + 0050 0053 0059 LEA 3 FLA S10E58 SF DSD 2645
80 + 0050 0053 0055 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B9.1 1.4E-04 2645

90 0102 0102 0102 PAL G RBR 245 170

100 0135 0143 0146 LEA 3 FLA N13E18 SF 2644

110 + 0152 0200 0204 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B6.6 3.5E-04 2644
110 0154 0200 0210 LEA 3 FLA N13E16 SF 2644

120 + 0256 0300 0303 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.1 8.6E-05

130 + 0318 0323 0325 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C3.1 6.3E-04 2645 [1]
130 0321 0322 0332 LEA 3 FLA S09E56 SF 2645

140 + 0352 0357 0407 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B6.6 4.2E-04 2644
140 0355 0402 0422 LEA 3 FLA N13E14 SF 2644

150 0447 0456 0503 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C3.2 1.7E-03 2645 [2]
150 0453 0459 0510 LEA 3 FLA S09E56 SF 2645

160 B0508 U0508 0512 SVI 2 FLA S10E60 SF 2645

170 + 0656 //// 0703 LEA C RSP 025-180 III/1

180 + 0712 0719 0723 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C1.1 4.1E-04 2645 [3]
180 + 0715 0730 0747 LEA 3 FLA S11E52 SF DSD 2645

190 + 0818 //// 0821 SVI C RSP 025-079 III/1

200 0855 0855 0855 SVI G RBR 245 100

210 0901 0910 0916 G13 5 XRA 1-8A B7.0 4.4E-04 2645
210 + 0904 0905 0916 SVI 3 FLA S08E54 SF ERU 2645

220 0938 0944 0950 G13 5 XRA 1-8A B4.0 2.1E-04 2645
220 0941 0942 0947 LEA 2 FLA S09E52 SF 2645

230 + 0955 1001 1004 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C1.0 3.5E-04 2645 [4]

240 + 1202 1202 1202 SVI G RBR 245 140

250 + 1318 1322 1325 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.8 7.2E-05 2645

260 + 1351 1355 1359 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.5 8.4E-05 2645

270 + 1441 1441 1441 SAG G RBR 245 110

280 + 1546 1551 1556 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.1 9.7E-05 2645

With sunspot 2644 approaching the center of the solar disc, it appears that it is not as active.
Notice the larger number of B and C-flares attributed to 2645.

Attachments
03-28-2017_Multiple C-Flares with sunspots 2644 and 2645_goes-xray-flux.gif
03-28-2017_Multiple C-Flares with sunspots 2644 and 2645_goes-xray-flux.gif (13.7 KiB) Viewed 1467 times

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Luke
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Luke »

Are we supposed to he in a lessor sunspot mode? I lost track of the 11-year cycles.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

We are going into a SOLAR MINIMUM, which is following Solar Cycle 24, and which means less sunspots and flares.

There will still be occasional sunspots and flares during the beginning months of this solar minimum, but as you can see from NOAA, there are less solar flares even when there are sunspots that have had a beta-gamma configurations such as #2644 (decaying slightly to a beta) and #2645, which is now a beta-gamma.

Looking at the plot below, you can see some variability, but not the great variability we saw back in 2011 and 2012 when we were just exiting a deep solar minimum, and when we were almost at the apex of a solar maximum.

However, we still could have M-Flares should #2645 decide to erupt, but any CME which follows such a solar flare will be more destructive if it were to be earth-directed because the earth's magnetic field, which normally shields us, is very low.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Hello Luke.

This graph below shows the monthly variability back to the 1700s. Notice that in the early 1700s, this was the time of the Maunder Minimum when the sun showed almost no sunspot activity and few auroras, and it was so cold that people could ice skate on the River Thames in London. In fact, a few Christmas greeting cards remembering those days can be found.

This is referred to as the one-hundred year cycle.

In the early 1800s, there was another period of extreme cold. Remember that even in 1776, during the American Revolutionary War, soldiers could march across frozen rivers, because of the extreme cold., and many soldiers lost feet due to frostbite.

In the early 1900s, there was another time of extreme cold, but it was not as bad as the early 1700s and early 1800s.

However, at the turn of the century, during the early 2000s, we did not have such weather extremes. Now it appears that we will as Solar Cycle 24, just completed, showed little activity, and the solar minimum that preceded it was quite deep. Scientists do not know what is in store during this current solar minimum that is preceding Solar Cycle 25, but they expect to see another deep solar minimum. So, apparently, we are still in the one-hundred year solar minimum..

Looking at the past, back in 600 AD, there was an extreme solar minimum, which almost allowed the Muslims to overtake the world. There appears to be a very deep recurring 1400 year solar cycle, which we also might be entering. And add to this, the recurrent 300 deep solar year cycle (1700s), and you can see that we might be in for a deep freeze that could last almost 100 years.

We are not going to be affected by global warming, but by global cooling.

Sunspot numbers.international-1700-2017 Mar.png
Sunspot numbers.international-1700-2017 Mar.png (131.02 KiB) Viewed 1463 times

Click the link below to access this recent prediction method below called the Kalman-filter to the primary McNish and Lincoln (ML) predictions. It is my opinion that this newest ML prediction method (2011) is vastly improved over the other two methods. Of course, human predictions might be easily upset by unpredicted heavenly activities.

http://www.sidc.be/silso/predikfml

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

The sun's new sunspots as of March 29, 2017: Sunspots 2644 and 2645 are betas whereas Sunspot 2646 is an alpha and is departing to the far side of the sun.

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2017/ ... lo3fufsol3

Image

Data below from http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar ... nt-reports

# Edited Events for 2017 Mar 29
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

360 B0000 //// 0004 LEA 3 FLA S10E41 SF DSD 2645
360 0000 //// 0130 LEA C RSP 095-180 CTM/1 2645

370 + 0038 0043 0048 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.2 1.4E-04 2645
370 0047 0047 0048 LEA 3 FLA S10E43 SF 2645

380 0126 0140 0145 G13 5 XRA 1-8A B4.5 3.8E-04 2646
380 0129 0130 0132 LEA 3 FLA S10E41 SF DSD 2646

390 + 0218 0222 0226 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.5 1.2E-04 2645

400 0330 //// 0451 LEA C RSP 096-180 CTM/1

410 + 1259 1309 1320 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.3 3.6E-04 2644

420 + 2026 2030 2032 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B4.3 8.2E-05 2645
420 2028 2028 2029 PAL G RBR 410 180
420 + 2029 //// 2029 SAG C RSP 025-067 III/1

430 + 2053 //// 2054 SAG C RSP 025-169 III/1

440 + 2319 2332 2350 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B6.5 9.1E-04 2644
440 2323 2326 2343 LEA 3 FLA N12W09 SF 2644

Edited Events for 2017 Mar 30
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

450 + 0121 //// 0121 PAL C RSP 025-180 III/1

460 + 0138 //// 0138 LEA C RSP 044-094 III/1

470 + 0614 //// 0652 LEA C RSP 132-180 CTM/1

480 + 0658 0703 0710 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.6 1.3E-04 2645

490 + 0728 //// 0728 SVI C RSP 033-180 III/2

500 0730 0730 0730 SVI U RBR 410 110

510 0751 //// 0753 SVI C RSP 025-180 III/2
510 0751 //// 0803 LEA C RSP 035-180 VI/2
510 0753 0753 0753 SVI G RBR 245 180

520 0801 //// 0803 SVI C RSP 025-169 III/1

530 1021 //// 1022 SVI C RSP 025-071 III/1

540 1046 //// 1047 SVI C RSP 025-039 III/1

590 1100 //// 1417 SVI C RSP 103-171 CTM/1

550 1112 //// 1352 SAG C RSP 109-173 CTM/1

560 1227 //// 1250 SVI C RSP 025-035 VI/1

570 + 1300 1303 1305 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.7 4.2E-05 2645

600 1331 //// 1357 SAG C RSP 025-180 VI/1

580 1337 //// 1350 SVI C RSP 025-171 VI/1

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Barbara »

Quite important about the falsity of the warming scare and the reality that maybe there will be quite a cooling. I sure hope NOT. But it's useful to see the overall picture over many, many centuries.
Thanks, Maria, for your research.
Keep us posted !

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Sunspot #2645 is showing more complex structures, and SILSO said that there is a possibility of an M Flare. Below is NOAA's list of edited solar events showing #2645's recent C1.7 flare, which is significant during this solar minimum. Since #2645 is now geo-centered, there is a risk that a CME could cause considerable damage as our shield is down.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar ... nt-reports

# Edited Events for 2017 Mar 31
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

680 + 0149 //// 0150 LEA C RSP 025-180 III/2

690 0232 //// 0232 LEA C RSP 025-054 III/1

700 + 0250 //// 0251 LEA C RSP 025-089 III/1

710 0334 0334 0334 PAL G RBR 245 140

720 + 0339 0346 0350 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B5.0 2.1E-04 2645

790 0448 0621 0653 LEA 3 FLA S10E34 SF ERU 2645

730 0449 0453 0455 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B4.1 8.5E-05

740 + 0545 0550 0553 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.3 1.1E-04 2644
740 + 0545 //// 0549 LEA C RSP 025-180 V/2 2644
740 0547 0550 0557 LEA 3 FLA N13W32 SF ERU 2644
740 0550 //// 0740 SVI C RSP 102-169 IV/1 2644
740 + 0551 0551 0551 SVI G RBR 245 110 2644

750 + 0602 //// 0603 LEA C RSP 025-136 III/2

760 + 0615 0619 0624 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.7 1.0E-04 2645

770 0631 //// 0646 SVI C RSP 025-046 VI/1

800 0719 //// 0740 SVI C RSP 025-049 VI/1

780 0719 0719 0719 SVI U RBR 410 290

810 + 0819 //// 0821 SVI C RSP 025-180 III/2

820 0846 //// 0950 SVI C RSP 103-171 CTM/1
820 0850 //// 0908 SVI C RSP 025-038 VI/1

830 + 0946 //// 0947 SVI C RSP 025-180 III/2

910 1019 //// 1701 SVI C RSP 105-172 CTM/1

890 1021 //// 1549 SVI C RSP 025-180 VI/2

840 1214 //// 1242 SAG C RSP 025-180 VII/2

850 + 1328 //// 1330 SAG C RSP 025-180 V/3

860 + 1339 1342 1344 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.2 5.0E-05 2644
860 1343 //// 1602 SAG C RSP 025-180 VI/1

870 + 1441 1447 1452 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.7 1.8E-04

880 1532 1533 1538 HOL 2 FLA S10E06 SF 2645

900 1555 1555 1558 HOL 3 FLA S10E06 SF 2645

920 + 1728 1737 1748 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C1.7 1.4E-03 2645
920 1731 1732 1749 HOL 3 FLA S12E03 SF ERU 2645

Image

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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