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According to NOAA, AR2712 is gradually decaying as it approaches the Western Limb of the sun. It has been gradually decreasing in size from 50 to 10, and in magnitude from a 12 to a 6. Note that AR2712 is still classified as a Beta.
Although the GOES X-ray flux shows that the sun has almost flatlined since 0000 UTC on June 4, 2018, there is still a chance of a C-class solar flare.
However, do not ever underestimate the power of our sun as some active areas have been known to come alive precisely at the point where any flare would become geo-directive. One never knows.
:Issued: 2018 Jun 04 0030 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 155 Issued at 0030Z on 04 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 03 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 03/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2712 N14W63 178 0010 Bxo 06 06 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 03/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 04 Jun to 06 Jun
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 156 Issued at 0030Z on 05 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 04 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 04/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2712 N14W77 178 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 04/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 05 Jun to 07 Jun
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
While the EISN from Belgium for yesterday and today has been zero, NOAA shows that AR2712 is still active. The GOES X-ray flux for today has been rather flat-lined with no B-flaring since June 3, 2018.
From the Royal Observatory in Belgium: EISN at 1130 UT was 12. Is there a new active region?
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been quiet. No
significant flares have been recorded. Active Region (AR) 2712 rotated over
the West solar limb. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have
been detected. There are no significant coronal holes or filaments. Solar
activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a low
probability of C-class flares.
The solar wind speed has fluctuated between 405 and 460 km/s over the past
24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated around 5 nT. The
Bz component has fluctuated around 0, between -2 and +6 nT. Geomagnetic
conditions ranged between Kp index 0-2 (NOAA) and local K index 0-3
(Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be
quiet. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 012, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 158 Issued at 0030Z on 07 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 06 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 06/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 06/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 07 Jun to 09 Jun
Nmbr Lat Lo
2711 N06 308
This in from NOAA: Spotless days are here again, but for how long? Will AR2711 return?
:Issued: 2018 Jun 08 0030 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 159 Issued at 0030Z on 08 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 07 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 07/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 07/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 08 Jun to 10 Jun
Nmbr Lat Lo
2711 N06 308
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been quiet. No
significant flares have been recorded. No Earth directed Coronal Mass
Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. There are no significant coronal holes
or filaments. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24
hours with a low probability of C-class flares.
The solar wind speed has fluctuated between 330 and 360 km/s over the past
24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated around 3 nT. The
Bz component has fluctuated around 0 nT, between -2 and +3 nT, but has been
primarily positive. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-2
(NOAA) and local K index 0-2 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mainly quiet, however, a patchy open
field/quiet sun region in the central latitudes may enhance solar wind
speeds slightly over the next few days.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.
A few days ago, NOAA predicted that AR2711 might return between June 9 - 11.
Currently, a bright spot is making an appearance on the Eastern Limb. Is this the return of AR2711?
It has an approximate N06 latitude, which is similar to that of AR2711. Stay tuned.
NOAA wrote:
II. Regions Due to Return 09 Jun to 11 Jun
Nmbr Lat Lo
2711 N06 308
