As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

ALERT - M class solar flare is in progress. This one measured an M2.1 at its peak dated 2017-04-02 at 18:38:00 UT (11:38 PST)

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Global. 04-02-2017 M2 at 1840 UT.latest.png
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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04-02-2017_Multiple M-Class Solar flaring from Sunspot 2644_goes-xray-flux.gif
04-02-2017_Multiple M-Class Solar flaring from Sunspot 2644_goes-xray-flux.gif (10.18 KiB) Viewed 1314 times

UPDATE: The M2.1 from Sunspot #2644 might not have been a major flare, but it delivered quite an impact with M-flaring lasting for an hour with a long decay. Remember that our shield is down. On the West Coast of the USA, we were roasted. This M2.1 was followed by an major M5.7
Total M-Class solar flares on April 2, 2017 from Sunspot 2644:

M5.3 @ 0802 UTC - Major flare, sudden onset, impulsive
M2.3 @ 1300 UTC - Minor flare, sudden onset, impulsive
M2.1 @ 1838 UTC - Minor flare, one hour long duration with long decay
M5.7 @ 2033 UTC - Major flare, sudden onset, impulsive

The plot below shows the multiple M-solar class flares that have burst from the sun in the last two days.
Amazingly, Sunspot 2645 which is geo-centered has only given us a few C flares, while departing sunspot 2644 has unleashed its fury with four M-class solar flares on April 2, 2017 and one M4.4 impulsive minor flare at 2148 UTC on April 1, 2017.

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04-02-2017_Multiple M-Class Solar flaring_M5.3 and M2.3 from Sunspot 2644_goes-xray-flux.gif
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Notice how there is a gradual rise of the base line on the above plot? This could mean that we may experience an X flare. Here is the latest report from NOAA showing that there is indeed an increased chance of an x-flare from Beta-Gamma-Delta sunspot number 2645, which now has a more complex structure. However, lately we have only been having M-flares from departing sunspot 2644.

Image

:Issued: 2017 Apr 03 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 93 Issued at 0030Z on 03 Apr 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 02 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 02/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2644 N12W65 057 0450 Fkc 17 19 Beta-Gamma
2645 S10W26 018 0600 Ehc 14 23 Beta-Gamma-Delta
2648 S03E61 291 0020 Cro 05 03 Beta

Not surprising, here is another solar flare registering M1.2 for Monday, April 3, 2017 at 01:05:00 UTC, again attributed to Sunspot #2644.

Here is another plot showing all the recent M-class solar flares:

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04-03-2017_M1.2 flare_goes-xray-flux.gif
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04-03-2017_M1.2 at 0105 UTC_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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THE SUN WAKES UP: Suddenly, solar flare activity is high. With little warning, sunspot AR2644 exploded on April 1st, producing an M4.4-class flare. That was the strongest solar flare of the year--for less than a day. The sunspot topped itself on April 2nd with a pair of M5-class explosions. This picture from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the instigating flare on April 1st:
Image

Flashes of extreme ultraviolet radiation, like the one shown above, have been ionizing Earth's upper atmosphere and altering the normal propagation of radio waves around our planet. There have been at least three significant shortwave radio blackouts affecting, especially, the Pacific and Indian oceans. (Blackout maps: #1, #2, #3) People who might have noticed these blackouts include ham radio operators and mariners using low-frequency rigs for communication at frequencies below 10 MHz.

http://www.spaceweather.com

Indeed, the Sun has awakened. The solar image below seems to indicate that all three Beta sunspots were actively flaring at 0106 UT on April 3, 2017, one minute after the M1.2 maximum was recorded by sunspot 2644 at 0105 UT. The entire sun was being shaken. I wonder what was happening on the far side of the sun.

I am not sure if the image below is dynamic (changeable) or a static photo.UPDATE: When an image is saved, it is usually a static shot, but when the image location is copied, it becomes an active link, so it can be a dynamic photo that changes every few minutes, every hour or twice a day depending on the website from which it is copied.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Not surprisingly, the sunspot number has increased dramatically.

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 04-03-2017_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 04-03-2017_EISNcurrent.png (39.17 KiB) Viewed 1304 times

The higher range is between 102 and 115 sunspots for April 3, 2017 alone, so do not be surprised if the average sunspot number for the month of April exceeds 40, 50, or even 60 if this type of solar activity is sustained for another week or two.

Looking at the historical records below showing solar cycles from the 1700s, there has usually been a short uptick in solar activity during the decline into the solar minimum. These bumps in the declining years are seen during the 1720s, early 1740s, early 1750s, early 1760s, early 1770s, the 1790s, late 1800s, the 1820s, early 1860s, late 1870s, mid 1880s,the 1900s, the 1940s, the 1950s, mid 1960s, and mid 1970s.

Sunspot numbers.international-1700-2017 Mar.png
Sunspot numbers.international-1700-2017 Mar.png (131.02 KiB) Viewed 1304 times

In this image below, one can clearly see how bumpy the decline into the solar minimum was during the 1970s. My dad who was an astrophysicist at Lawrence Livermore, said that our sun is a declining and unstable star, but that it will last many millions of years.

Image

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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04-03-2017_M5.8_1429 UT_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif
04-03-2017_M5.8_1429 UT_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (10.17 KiB) Viewed 1302 times

Again, we have had another major flare, an impulsive one, from sunspot 2944, the sunspot that keeps giving. This time it was a M5.8. This sunspot will depart soon, but will it return from the far side a second or even a third time to blast us as did a sunspot in the late winter and early spring months of 2014?

Image

Even though all these major eruptions have emitted CMEs into space, according to NOAA, none will reach us.

According to NOAA, below are some of the recently reported incidents.

rep .... beg .. max .. end ... ... (X-ray) magnitude sunspot #
1990 + 1107 1113 1125 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C3.9 3.1E-03 2645

2000 + 1140 1143 1145 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C2.6 4.2E-04 2645

2010 + 1216 1220 1226 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C2.6 1.1E-03 2645

2020 + 1301 1306 1309 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C3.4 1.1E-03 2645

2030 + 1318 1324 1328 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C7.3 2.7E-03 2644

2040 + 1419 1429 1434 G15 5 XRA 1-8A M5.8 3.1E-02 2644

Note that the two sunspots 2644 and 2645 are taking turns sparing. Also note that the reported "end time" for each flare "is the time when the flux level decays to a point halfway between the maximum flux and the pre-flare background level." Thus, it is not the time when the flare returns to a normal pre-flare background level. Therefore, when a flare has a long delay of several hours, the "end time" may be hours before the flaring actually ends. This preprogrammed "end time" was probably imposed because sun flares have a tendency to decay, gain strength, and then immediately flare again to an equal or even higher level. This was seen a few years back when we were in the solar maximum, especially in 2013 and 2014.

Below in the April 2, 2017 plot, one can observe several flares that had this long delay where the "end time" algorithm was able to distinguish between several flares. Note especially:

M2.3 @ 1300 UTC - Minor flare, sudden onset, impulsive. This flare never did return to its pre-flare background level as several C-class solar flares were unleashed.

and

M2.1 @ 1838 UTC - Minor flare, one hour long duration with long decay. In the process of its very long decay, where Sunspot #2644 was continually erupting, an M5.7 burst forth, much like we observe volcanoes on the earth spew molten lava.

04-03-2017_Multiple M1 flares_goes-xray-flux.gif
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Here is an updated solar image (April 4, 2017) showing recent minor flaring (C flares).
The other image that I took down of April 3, 2017 was a dynamic image, so that updated image is posted below.

Notice the clear interactions among the sunspots with all the spiraling.

solar image_04-04-2017_1957 UT.jpg
solar image_04-04-2017_1957 UT.jpg (163.59 KiB) Viewed 1277 times

2 Betas and 2 Beta-Gamma-Deltas:

:Issued: 2017 Apr 04 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 94 Issued at 0030Z on 04 Apr 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 03 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 03/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2644 N13W79 057 0520 Fkc 18 12 Beta-Gamma-Delta
2645 S10W40 018 0700 Ekc 15 35 Beta-Gamma-Delta
2648 S03E50 288 0030 Dro 07 06 Beta
2649 N15W58 036 0020 Cro 04 04 Beta

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