As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Image

Great Lenten Hem of His Garment extraordinaire

Tour guide Marianne Bergli of Tromsø, Norway, photographed the colorful lights on March 25th as Earth was passing through the CME's gaseous wake. "It was quite a show!" she says.

CMEs contain relatively strong magnetic fields. In this case, the CME's wake was magnetized almost five times stronger than ordinary solar wind. Those fields connected to the magnetic field of Earth and pried open a crack. Solar wind poured in to fuel the display.

"The nights are growing shorter here in Tromsø," says Bergli. "Soon, aurora season will be over--but not yet! I'm looking forward to a few more good displays in the weeks ahead."

http://www.spaceweather.com

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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New sunspot rapidly develops on March 31, 2019
This shows the old polarity of Solar Cycle 24 (+/-)

This in from http://www.spaceweather.com

Image

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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COMMENT: The Sun did not produce any flares in the past 24 hours. The
chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours, especially from new beta region
NOAA AR 2737, is estimated at 5%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR varied between about
390 and 430 km/s in the past 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field
(IMF) was predominantly directed towards the Sun and its magnitude varied
between about 1 and 8 nT. There were no long intervals with Bz below -5 nT.
A negative polarity coronal hole started crossing the central meridian on
March 31. An associated high speed stream may arrive at Earth on April 3.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA
Kp between 1 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to
unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on April 1 and 2,
with a chance for active levels (K Dourbes = 4). Active to minor storm
intervals (K Dourbes = 4-5)are possible on April 3, due to the expected
arrival of the high speed stream associated with a negative polarity
coronal hole.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 015, BASED ON 24 STATIONS.

Reference: http://www.sidc.be/products/meu/

Explained by http://www.spaceweather.com for April 1, 2019, and this is no joke.
The picture of the Deep Sky Aurora is stunning and spectacular.

DEEP-SKY AURORAS IN THE USA: Yesterday, March 31st, a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic field. CIRs are like miniature CMEs. They contain shock waves and magnetic fields that often spark auroras. In this case, however, the impact was weak and the resulting auroras were barely visible to the unaided eye. Fortunately, Kevin Palmer of Lake DeSmet, Wyoming, had a camera:

Image

"The auroras were very faint," says Palmer, "but my Nikon D750 recorded the display nicely. I used a 10 second exposure at ISO 12800."

Brendan Lawrence of Kinsey, Montana, photographed them, too. "I noticed the northern sky looking a bit brighter than usual," says Lawrance. "A 20-second exposure with my Nikon D800 confirmed that the aurora borealis was indeed visible all the way into southeastern Montana!"

These are called "deep sky auroras" because like other deep-sky objects (e.g., galaxies and nebulae) they are best seen using optics and timed exposures. More deep sky auroras could be in the offing. A solar wind stream is approaching Earth and expected to arrive on April 3rd or 4th. A nearly-new Moon on those dates will make the night sky dark enough for long exposures.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Although solar activity has increased over the last 24 hours, AR2737 appears to be gradually fading away.

AR2737 is barely visible on the solar disc as you can see on this link: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

I have not posted a live link because this link is dynamic and changes every 15 minutes. The Internet does not like people to post live or dynamic links as they take up band width.

Below is a link to the GOES x-ray flux, which is also a dynamic (live) link:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux
Here you can see that the red line at the bottom barely rises from A0. This is a sign that we are in a very deep solar minimum.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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This in from http://www.spaceweather.com. Meanwhile, AR2737 continues to decay and is now almost invisible on the solar disc.

THE SOLAR WIND HAS ARRIVED: Earth is entering a stream of solar wind flowing from a southern hole in the sun's atmosphere. The gaseous material, flowing faster than 450 km/s, is sparking auroras around the Arctic Circle. John David McKinnon photographed this display from Slave River in the Northwest Territories of Canada:

Image

"Wave after wave of active auroras danced across the sky, with ever changing intensity and colour," says McKinnon. "T'was an extremely beautiful night."

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Current comment from Belgium's Royal Observatory:

COMMENT: The Sun did not produce any flares in the past 24 hours. NOAA AR
2737 showed continued decay. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours
is estimated at 3%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR jumped from about 440
km/s to 510 km/s at 13:22 UT on April 4, while the Interplanetary Magnetic
Field (IMF) fell from about 10 to 7 nT. Current solar wind and IMF
magnitude values lie around 510 km/s and 5 nT, respectively. The IMF was
directed predominantly towards the Sun. Bz was below -5 nT between about
14:10 and 14:50 UT on April 4.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 4; NOAA Kp
between 1 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active intervals (K
Dourbes = 4) are possible on April 5 and 6 and the first half of April 7,
with a slight chance for minor storm levels (K Dourbes = 5) due to the
influence from isolated negative polarity coronal holes. A return to quiet
to unsettled levels (K Dourbes < 4) is expected in the second half of April
7.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 013, BASED ON 13 STATIONS.

While AR2737 slowly decays, previous sunspot AR2736 seems to be reappearing at the Eastern Limb of the solar disc.
Perhaps we will see it tomorrow or on April 7, 2018, which is the feast of the Holy Annunciation of the Theotokos (old calendar).

There has been increasing solar activity as seen in the GOES X-ray solar flux chart. Click the link below:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux
In addition, solar images show an illuminated area at the Eastern Limb. However, this could be a solar prominence.
Please view these images: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... 4_0193.jpg

SOLAR PROMINENCES: If you have a safe solar telescope, take a look at the sun today. Prominences are leaping up from the edge of the sun, some of them taller than Earth itself. Philippe Tosi photographed the action on April 4th from Nîmes, France:

Image

"I used a 204 mm F/10 H-alpha refractor," he explains. "A picture of Earth was added for scale. These are pretty big."

Prominences are plumes of glowing-hot plasma held above the surface of the sun by powerful magnetic fields. Sometimes they become unstable and collapse, dumping their load of plasma onto the solar surface below. This can cause an explosion--a type of solar flare called a Hyder flare.

The prominences Tosi photographed do not, however, appear to be unstable.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Recent solar images seem to confirm that a new active region (returning AR2736) is at the Eastern limb. It is actively flaring. Remember that AR2736 was a Beta-Gamma-Delta with divergent magnetic polarities. Thus it was capable of unleashing an M flare, but thankfully it did not do so. If an M-class solar flare had been unleashed and the earth had taken a direct hit, we could have suffered damage to our electric grids because our magnetic shield is down. GPS systems could also have been impaired.

Saturday and Sunday, as the sun revolves, will reveal if AR2736 is repaying us a visit. If so, it will be given a new number. Stay tuned for more news and updates.

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... 4_0171.jpg

If you are interested, The Royal Observatory in Belgium has prepared a new updated report concerning the current deep solar minimum. Belgium predicts that this solar minimum could be deeper and colder than they originally thought. Please visit: http://www.sidc.be/silso/spotless

Here is a new graph provided by Belgium showing where we are (black line) when compared with other solar minimums.
Image

SC23-24 is the previous solar minimum, a very deep one, which started in 2004 and lasted until 2011.
Our current solar minimum SC2-25 started in 2014 and continues to this day (April 2019).

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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