As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Non-political secular news and anything else (within the boundaries of Christian morality and good taste) that is not on-topic in any other section. Any politically charged material must be posted in the private Political and Social Issues forum; please PM admin for access. All Forum Rules apply. No polemics. No heated discussions. No name-calling.
Post Reply
User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... 4_0171.jpg

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

Check NASA's latest images of the sun as seen above. Click again to enlarge the photo. Possible sunspots areas appear to be developing in the recurrent Active Region (former AR2713) now approaching the center of the sun and another one near the sun's Western limb. Stay tuned. It could be ephemeral: here today, gone tomorrow.

From the Royal Observatory at Belgium:

COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. No flares have
been recorded. A recurrent unnumbered Active Region at the the East limb
has some potential to produce flaring activity. The greater than 10MeV
proton flux remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. No Earth
directed CMEs were detected. Solar activity is expected to remain low over
the next 24 hours.
The solar wind parameters variations are still disturbed since 12:00 UT (10
July) due to ICME arrival most probably produced by a filament eruption on
July 5. The Earth is still inside a magnetic cloud. The solar wind speed
has increased from 350 till 435 km/s over the past 24hrs. The total
magnetic field strength has fluctuated mainly between 9.3 and 3 nT. Bz
component has fluctuated between -7 and +6 nT. Geomagnetic conditions
ranged between Kp index 1-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-3 (Dourbes) over the
past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled to
active levels today and tomorrow.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 24 STATIONS.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

NOAA's report is now available and is posted below. It shows no new Active Regions. Reference: http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/ ... 713SRS.txt

Issued: 2018 Jul 13 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 194 Issued at 0030Z on 13 Jul 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 12 Jul
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 12/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 12/2400Z Jul
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 13 Jul to 15 Jul
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

During this solar minimum, we can expect to see sunspots appear and then vanish just as quickly as they have appeared. Indeed, a quick glance at the solar surface just now does not reveal any sunspots at all. Those two areas I previously saw have now disappeared.

See: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Sunspots seem to be back again, but for how long?
Two early international astronomers who reported at Belgium's Royal Observatory this evening also noticed some sunspots.

According to NOAA's GOES X-ray Flux, solar flaring is low and has flatlined in the A2 range, which is common during a solar minimum.

Attachments
solar image_07-13-2018_solar flaring from recurrent active area.jpg
solar image_07-13-2018_solar flaring from recurrent active area.jpg (150.71 KiB) Viewed 523 times

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

According to Belgium's Royal Observatory, we have an estimated 7 sunspots visible on the surface of the sun.

Per NOAA's GOES X-ray Flux, there was an insignificant solar flare at approximately 0920 UTC that measured about A8 at its peak. Otherwise, the solar output has flatlined at the A3 to A4 range.

COMMENT: During the past 24 hours no flares have been recorded. The only
numbered sunspot group on the visible side of the Sun - Catania sunspot
group 89 - has some potential to produce low flaring activity.
The greater
than 10MeV proton flux remained at background levels over the past 24
hours. No Earth directed CMEs were detected. Solar activity is expected to
remain low over the next 24 hours.

The maximum value of the solar wind speed, during last 24 hours, was
reached at about 05:30 UT on July 13, and it amounted about 495 km/s. The
solar wind speed is slowly decreasing and its present value is about 460
km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude amounts about 5 nT.
Geomagnetic conditions were stable at the planetary level Kp index=1 (NOAA)
and locally ranged between K index 1-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet today and tomorrow. Mostly
unsettled geomagnetic conditions can be expected on July 15 due to the
influence of the small negative polarity equatorial coronal hole, which
reached central meridian earlier today (13 July).

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 007, BASED ON 20 STATIONS.

Attachments
07-13-2018_Approx Solar Flare of A8_around 0920 UTC_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif
07-13-2018_Approx Solar Flare of A8_around 0920 UTC_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (10.86 KiB) Viewed 514 times

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Once again, NOAA has issued their advisory. For July 13 and July 14, this advisory shows no solar sunspots.

The Sun Today, which posts pictures taken by NASA, shows a blank sun as of now. See: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

Issued: 2018 Jul 14 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 195 Issued at 0030Z on 14 Jul 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 13 Jul
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 13/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 13/2400Z Jul
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 14 Jul to 16 Jul
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

Yet, the Royal Observatory at Belgium below shows a conflicting report where international scientists are divided.
Although 36 reports have been filed, 10 of those reports have been declared to be outliers reporting sunspots of 7 or more.
26 scientists have generally agreed that there are no sunspots. Thus, there is a high standard deviation of 4.6.

Belgium will decide at the end of the month whether July 13 had sunspots or not.

2018 07 01 2018.497 0 0.0 39 41
2018 07 02 2018.500 0 0.0 42 44
2018 07 03 2018.503 0 0.0 40 43
2018 07 04 2018.505 0 0.0 37 39
2018 07 05 2018.508 0 0.0 33 34
2018 07 06 2018.511 0 0.0 39 41
2018 07 07 2018.514 0 0.0 38 39
2018 07 08 2018.516 0 0.0 35 36
2018 07 09 2018.519 0 0.0 38 39
2018 07 10 2018.522 0 0.0 28 30
2018 07 11 2018.525 0 0.0 34 37
2018 07 12 2018.527 0 0.0 32 38
2018 07 13 2018.530 0 4.6 26 36

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

The comment from Belgium's Royal Observatory still insists that the recurrent Active Area has potential for flaring.

COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. No flares have
been recorded. The only numbered sunspot group on the visible side of the
Sun - Catania sunspot group 89 - has some potential to produce flaring
activity. The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at background levels
over the past 24 hours. No Earth directed CMEs were detected. Solar
activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed has fluctuated between 500 and 450 km/s over the past
24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated between 3.5 and
5.5 nT. Bz component has fluctuated between -2.5 and +2.5 nT. Geomagnetic
conditions ranged between Kp index 1-2 (NOAA) and local K index 1-2
(Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected be
mostly quiet today. Unsettled geomagnetic conditions can be expected from
tomorrow due to the influence of the small negative polarity equatorial
coronal hole, which crossed central meridian yesterday morning (13 July).

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.

The interpretation given above and the reports listed below suggests that yesterday and today will be classified by Belgium as having sunspots. NASA and NOAA, however, are suggesting that there are no sunspots even though ephemeral ones can be seen at various times during the day present for an hour or so and then vanishing. My comments are added in italics below to the text report.

Belgium's EISN wrote:

2018 07 01 2018.497 0 0.0 39 41
2018 07 02 2018.500 0 0.0 42 44
2018 07 03 2018.503 0 0.0 40 43
2018 07 04 2018.505 0 0.0 37 39
2018 07 05 2018.508 0 0.0 33 34
2018 07 06 2018.511 0 0.0 39 41
2018 07 07 2018.514 0 0.0 38 39
2018 07 08 2018.516 0 0.0 35 36
2018 07 09 2018.519 0 0.0 38 39
2018 07 10 2018.522 0 0.0 28 30
2018 07 11 2018.525 0 0.0 34 37
2018 07 12 2018.527 0 0.0 32 40
2018 07 13 2018.530 0 4.7 29 39 High standard deviation of 4.7; 10 outliers deleted
2018 07 14 2018.533 0 0.0 19 30 11 outliers deleted

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov

#

Missing data: ////

Updated every 5 minutes.

Edited Events for 2018 Jul 15

#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6700 + 0839 0847 0854 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.5 1.1E-04

6710 + 1058 1104 1115 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.3 1.0E-04

reference: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/sola ... nt-reports

Notice that NOAA does not list any active region as responsible for these two B flares today, yet Belgium does. It seems like Belgium is announcing to their group of volunteer international astronomers that they should be seeing a few sunspots in their eagerness to put an end to this solar minimum sooner rather than later. While http://www.spaceweather is predicting a long solar minimum for cycle 25, Belgium seems intent on predicting a shorter solar minimum. Could there be some bias here?

COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity was very low with only a
single B1.5 flare peaking at 08:47 UT from Catania sunspot group 89. This
is the only spotted region on the visible disk
. The greater than 10MeV
proton flux remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. No Earth
directed CMEs were detected. The flaring conditions are expected to be
quiet for the next 24-hour period with a small chance of C-class flare.
The solar wind speed has fluctuated between 495 and 360 km/s over the past
24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated between 2.5 and
5 nT. Bz component has fluctuated between -3.1 and +4 nT. Geomagnetic
conditions ranged between Kp index 0-1 (NOAA) and local K index 0-3
(Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. The geomagnetic field is expected to be
mostly at quiet levels today and tomorrow.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.

Scientists should observe and gather the evidence seen, look at the overall picture to avoid bias, and then make conclusions based on the facts, only the facts.

Liberals and pseudo scientists like sociologists and Al Gore like to predict what will happen, and then they skew their observations along with the standard deviation to match their predictions. That is backwards.

At http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics, one can see some predictions published by Belgium. From my observations, which agree with the position held at Spaceweather.com, these pseudoscientific predictions published at Belgium have fallen short. While we are going into a deep solar minimum, as seen with the recent 15 days (or more) of continuing spotlessness, Belgium wants to put an end to these spotless days seeing enduring sunspots when there are none, and changing the graphs to suit the agenda. Below is an example of the faulty predictions that have failed month after month. You would think that these people would become embarrassed and stop their nonsense, but no, they are persistent in flaunting their errors.

Image

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

Post Reply