As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Barbara wrote:
Maria wrote:

Oh, importantly, those of us who live in sub-tropical Los Angeles (agricultural zone 11), have noticed that our fruit bearing trees did not blossom this February. Instead, they have just started blossoming in mid-June. Reason -- we had an unusually cold winter, and it appears as if the Weather Channel is not telling us the truth. We lost several trees due to the cold freeze. If we had had a truthful warning by the Weather Channel, perhaps by placing tarps and buckets of water around those more tropical trees, we could have saved them from the cold freeze.

Sorry to hear about your trees, Maria. What type were they ? And how would buckets of water have helped, except to weigh down the tarps - ?
I didn't know it was so cold this year in L.A. That's quite something if trees froze last winter and then failed to bloom in Feb. as they should have, apparently, for your Zone 11 [ ! ]. We could maybe move this to the tree thread, which I intend to return to.
But too about the volcanic activity, I didn't connect that with a worldwide cool off.

Barbara's post above on trees has been moved to the tree thread.

Maria
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http://www.euphrosynoscafe.com/forum/vi ... =6&t=12486

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

According to NOAA, AR2712 might return tomorrow, June 18. There is some activity on the far side of the sun nearing the Eastern limb.

Currently, AR2713, although it has decayed into an Alpha, is still actively B-flaring:
The latest B1.2 flare was a long sustained flare that lasted for more than 30 minutes.

Furthermore, AR2713 is now geocentered, which means that any flare, especially this recent long lasting B1.2 could unleash a CME that may be earth-centered. With our earth's magnetic shield down during this deep solar minimum, we are at risk. Sadly, our electric grid in most of the USA is not in good repair nor is it protected should we have a strong CME from the sun. Bureaucrats in the electrical companies have stolen most of the funds for keeping our grid working and upgrading it, then they increase the rates to replenish the stolen funds. When will we learn not to trust bureaucrats.

06-17-2018_AR2713 long sustained B1.2 at 1312 UT_goes-xray-flux.gif
06-17-2018_AR2713 long sustained B1.2 at 1312 UT_goes-xray-flux.gif (13.26 KiB) Viewed 650 times

# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov

#

Missing data: ////

Updated every 5 minutes.

Edited Events for 2018 Jun 17

#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6150 0653 0657 0706 G14 5 XRA 1-8A B1.0 6.5E-05 2713

6160 1312 1429 1502 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.2 6.5E-04 2713

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Newest report from NOAA:

Geo-centered AR2713 has now increased to a Beta bursting with B flares, and AR2712 appears to be returning on the Eastern limb.

solar image_06-18-2018_0111 UT_Geocentered AR2713.jpg
solar image_06-18-2018_0111 UT_Geocentered AR2713.jpg (151.29 KiB) Viewed 649 times

:Product: 0618SRS.txt
:Issued: 2018 Jun 18 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 169 Issued at 0030Z on 18 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 17 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 17/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2713 N05E02 287 0020 Bxo 06 05 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 17/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 18 Jun to 20 Jun
Nmbr Lat Lo
2712 N14 194

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Maria wrote:

Newest report from NOAA:

Geo-centered AR2713 has now increased to a Beta bursting with B flares, and AR2712 appears to be returning on the Eastern limb.

solar image_06-18-2018_0111 UT_Geocentered AR2713.jpg
solar image_06-18-2018_0111 UT_Geocentered AR2713.jpg (151.29 KiB) Viewed 647 times

Notice the tiny sunspot area to the right of AR2713? It might be developing into an active area. Although very small now, an enlarged picture of the sun shows a dark core typical of a sunspot.

Thus, possibly tomorrow, we might have three active regions: geo-centered Beta AR2713, the former AR2712, which is making its presence known on the Eastern limb of the sun, and this new one. And notice that these are all in the Northern Hemisphere of the sun.

Check out this recent picture (it is dynamic, so it is ever changing). Click the image to enlarge it.

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

Look to the right of AR2713 (which is barely visible), and then notice this new sunspot area to the right of AR2713. It may develop or it may quickly fade away as do most active regions during a solar minimum.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg (click to enlarge this solar image)

Notice the tiny sunspot area to the right of AR2713? It appears to be developing into an active area. This active area is much larger than it was yesterday. An enlarged picture of the sun shows a dark core typical of a sunspot. According to the June 18 comment from the Royal Observatory in Belgium posted below, the sunspot number has increased to 28 from a former low of 15.

COMMENT: The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours with
X-ray flux remaining below C level. Catania sunspot group 86 (NOAA active
region 2713) remained on the solar disc and did not decay as fast as
expect
, however its flaring activity is expected to remain low (below
C-level). Therefore, quiet flaring conditions are expected for the next
24-hour period.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection has been observed. The greater than
10 MeV solar protons flux remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours
and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind measurements indicated the onset of a Corotating Interaction
Region (CIR) on Jun 17 around 22:00 UT announcing the soon arrival of the
solar wind High Speed Stream (HSS) associated with the positive polarity
coronal hole in the northern hemisphere that has passed the central meridian on Jun 15.
The wind speed is showing a gradual increase from the nominal values (around 300km/s) to
the current values ranging from 500 to 530 km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field strength has shown a fast enhancement on Jun 17 around 22:30
UT due to the arrival of a CIR with the total field reaching 20.2 nT at
00:56 UT on Jun 18 and Bz component reaching -13.6 nT at 23:36 UT. The
enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist within the next
24-hour period and until while under the influence of the HSS associated
with the coronal hole.

The geomagnetic conditions have been active over the past 24 hours due to
the arrival of the fast solar wind. A minor storm was recorded (Kp-index =
5) at 03:00 UT on Jun 18. The geomagnetic conditions were also observed as
active by the local station at Dourbes (K-index = 4) from 04:00 to 05:00 UT
and from 09:00 to 10:00 UT on Jun 18. Due to the ongoing enhancement of the
solar wind, active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next
forecasting period, isolated minor geomagnetic storms cannot be excluded,
especially if Bz component remains negative for long period of time.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 028, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

Thus, tomorrow, we might have three active regions: geo-centered Beta AR2713, the former AR2712, which is making its presence known on the Eastern limb of the sun, and this new one. Notice that these are all in the Northern Hemisphere of the sun. However, we may have no sunspots at all tomorrow as all may have decayed by that time. Since one never knows what the sun will do in a solar minimum, stay tuned for another chapter in As the Sun Turns tomorrow.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Yes, indeed, that tiny sunspot area slightly to the right of AR2813 has now increased to a Beta, AR2714.

Thus, per NOAA, the sun now has two Beta Active Regions: AR2713 and AR2714.

:Issued: 2018 Jun 19 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 170 Issued at 0030Z on 19 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 18 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 18/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2713 N05W13 289 0010 Bxo 06 06 Beta
2714 N08W41 317 0010 Bxo 04 02 Beta

IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 18/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 19 Jun to 21 Jun
Nmbr Lat Lo

None

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

From NOAA, we now have three active BETA regions: AR2713, AR2714, and newly minted AR2715.

AR2713 is hanging on but is the smallest of the three Betas.

AR2714, the largest of the three) is to the right of AR2713 and is growing. As it approaches the Western limb, it could unleash a solar flare that would be geo-directed.

AR2715 (to the left of AR2713) is also expanding and needs to be watched as it could unleash a solar flare that is geocentered. Update: AR2715 has dramatically increased in size. Click here to see the latest developments https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg (click the image to enlarge it).

In addition, there appears to be a new active region that is starting to rotate into view from the Eastern limb. Thus, we could be in for another surprise as happened in September 2017 when we experienced two huge solar X-flares.

:Issued: 2018 Jun 20 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 171 Issued at 0030Z on 20 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 19 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 19/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2713 N05W24 287 0010 Bxo 06 02 Beta
2714 N08W54 317 0040 Cao 05 05 Beta
2715 N07E32 231 0030 Cro 03 04 Beta

IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 19/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 20 Jun to 22 Jun
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

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