As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

The new month has just begun, so now we can compare the last days of March with the first day of April, 2018.

March 2018 will go down in history (so far in this solar cycle 25) as having the lowest average mean for an International Sunspot Number (ISN). It will be approximately 2.5 according to the graph provided by Belgium.

Below for your comparison are the unadjusted month of March 2018 and the updated month of March 2018 according to Belgium.

In the updated version dated April 1, 2018, there are 6 days with sunspots (March 1, 2, 16, 17, 30, and 31).
This leaves another record with 25 spotless days in March: 14 days (Mar. 3-15) followed by another 10 days (March. 18-29)
The sunspot numbers total 77 for all six days, so 77/31 = 2.48, which when rounded will give a monthly mean of 2.5.

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 03-31-2018_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 03-31-2018_EISNcurrent.png (37.76 KiB) Viewed 828 times
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 04-01-2018_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 04-01-2018_EISNcurrent.png (36.26 KiB) Viewed 828 times

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Kalman-filter optimization_12 mo. prediction 04-01-2018_SC method_prediKFSC.png
Kalman-filter optimization_12 mo. prediction 04-01-2018_SC method_prediKFSC.png (61.29 KiB) Viewed 828 times

Looking at the updated graphs and plots prepared by the Belgium's Royal Observatory,
some scientists are predicting that we are going into a deep solar minimum, which will have
no sunspots for perhaps months at a time. This will affect our weather and lead to colder days,
so perhaps starting in June 2018 and continuing through June 2019 or even longer into 2020
or 2021, we will not experience summertime at all. I remember those cold summer days during
the solar minimum of 1964 and in 1965. It was too cold to swim or visit San Francisco Bay.
It was not surprising during those summers to see women dressed in long skirts, corduroy shirts,
and long scarves wrapped around their necks and heads. Brrrrr.

The Kalman-filter above shows such a scenario approaching a mini-ice age. The grey area
is expected variation, no doubt proposed by Global Warmists who do not believe we will have a
mini-ice age.

For more on Kalman-filters, please see this website: http://www.bzarg.com/p/how-a-kalman-fil ... -pictures/
Yes, it is rather a complex filter, but it seems to be more accurate than the other methods employed.

Below are the smoothed sunspots for the past 13 years.

monthly-sunspot-numbers-smoothed-2018-04.png
monthly-sunspot-numbers-smoothed-2018-04.png (140.54 KiB) Viewed 828 times

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

NOAA has just announced that AR2703 is now an H-alpha plage.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 92 Issued at 0030Z on 02 Apr 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 01 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 01/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 01/2400Z Apr
Nmbr Location Lo
2703 S08E34 193
II. Regions Due to Return 02 Apr to 04 Apr
Nmbr Lat Lo
2702 N19 128

Notice the dark spots at the polar regions and on the Eastern limb
in the solar image below. These are coronal holes from which solar
winds can flow. It is these solar winds which can disrupt radio
communications and spark dazzling auroras.
There is still no sign of AR2702 returning yet. My guess is that it
will not return because of this solar minimum.

solar image_04-02-2018_AR2703 is a plage.jpg
solar image_04-02-2018_AR2703 is a plage.jpg (13.93 KiB) Viewed 827 times

This means that we are now entering into another spotless streak.
If you need warm clothes, hats, and scarves, now is the time to stock up.

p.s. I moved a response on clothing to another forum to keep this one on topic.
http://www.euphrosynoscafe.com/forum/vi ... =14#p72403

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

http://www.spaceweather had this to say about the coronal hole at the equatorial region in the sun.

SOLAR WIND FORECAST: A hole in the sun's atmosphere that lashed Earth with high-speed solar wind in mid-March is turning to face our planet again. It is emerging over the sun's eastern limb following a two-week transit around the farside of the sun. This extreme ultraviolet image from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the leading edge of the hole coming into view:

Image

This hole is particularly geoeffective because it straddles the sun's equator, allowing it to squarely target Earth with a stream of solar plasma. The last time its gaseous material interacted with our planet's magnetic field, spectacular auroras were observed around the Arctic Circle. Similar displays are possible on April 8th or 9th when the solar wind is expected to return.

GOES X-Ray flux shows an almost flat-lined sun in the low A1 range.
The blue line has bottomed out. Thus, no sign of a returning AR2702.
If a sunspot were to occur, the wave forms would become more erratic.

cf: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

For April 1, 2018 Belgium stated:

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 011, BASED ON 08 STATIONS.

That figure has now dropped to 7, but Belgium may use 11 in the final updated version on May 1, 2018.

For April 2, the EISN (estimated international sunspot number) is 0.0 with 21 accepted station reports.
There was only one outlier, which has been deleted.

NOAA just reported: AR2702 most likely will not return. AR2703 remains an H-alpha plage. Sun is spotless.

:Issued: 2018 Apr 03 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 93 Issued at 0030Z on 03 Apr 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 02 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 02/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 02/2400Z Apr
Nmbr Location Lo
2703 S08E20 194

II. Regions Due to Return 03 Apr to 05 Apr
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

solar image_04-03-2018_AR2703 caught in a B2.1 flare_0400 UT.jpg
solar image_04-03-2018_AR2703 caught in a B2.1 flare_0400 UT.jpg (11.9 KiB) Viewed 800 times

I chanced to take a glimpse at GOES X-ray flux, and low and behold,
AR2703 was actively flaring. It registered a B2.1 at its peak. So, I
quickly visited The Sun Today and copied the image from NASA
above.

When I was checking the archives at http://www.spaceweather.com
for March 2007, there were 22 days in which the GOES X-ray flux
reached down consistently into the A0 levels, which was the highest
level reached for that day. Yet, during this current solar minimum, I have
never seen any sustained dips into the A0 levels. In March 2018, there
were seven days in which A2 was the highest level recorded on a
particular day, but all the other days in March had days in which the
highest level recorded was in the A3 to C1 range. This indicates that the
the sun is still quite active, more so than in 2007.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Per NOAA, although AR2703 is a small H-alpha plage, it has been actively flaring in the B levels.
Solar winds are expected to emerge from the geo-centered equatorial coronal hole located close to AR2703.
These solar winds will disrupt earth communications. Watch for auroras in the Northern and Southern latitudes.

solar image_04-04-2018_geocentered coronal hole next to H-alpha plage AR2703.jpg
solar image_04-04-2018_geocentered coronal hole next to H-alpha plage AR2703.jpg (131.82 KiB) Viewed 784 times

http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/ ... 404SRS.txt

:Issued: 2018 Apr 04 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 94 Issued at 0030Z on 04 Apr 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 03 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 03/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 03/2400Z Apr
Nmbr Location Lo
2703 S08E06 195
II. Regions Due to Return 04 Apr to 06 Apr
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/eve ... terday.txt

:Product: 20180403events.txt
:Created: 2018 Apr 04 0027 UT
:Date: 2018 04 03

Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov

#

Missing data: ////

Updated every 5 minutes.

Edited Events for 2018 Apr 03

#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4660 + 0356 0405 0415 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.1 1.8E-04 2703
4660 0359 0405 0411 LEA 3 FLA S10E23 SF ERU 2703

4670 + 1413 1417 1432 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.2 1.1E-04 2703
4670 1414 1418 1425 SVI 3 FLA S09E17 SF ERU 2703

4680 + 2030 2035 2038 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.0 5.5E-05 2703
4680 2033 2036 2046 HOL 3 FLA S10E12 SF ERU 2703

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