As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Maria wrote:

This advisory in from http://www.spaceweather.com

Sunspot AR2712 is quiet, but it might not remain so. The sunspot has quadrupled in size in the past 48 hours. Instabilities in its fast-changing magnetic field could lead to solar flares.

As AR2712 shows increases in its magnetic field and approaches the center of the sun, any significant flares most likely will be geo-centered. Thus, we could be in for another September 2017 surprise where we experienced X-flares.

AR2712 exploded in a C2.7 at 1710 UT today, May 28, 2018. What will the future bring? According to NOAA, this active region has been quite active.

Code: Select all

                    [quote] Edited Events for 2018 May 28

#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5600 1215 1218 1220 G14 5 XRA 1-8A B1.1 1.8E-05

5610 1221 1221 1224 HOL 3 FLA N15E27 SF 2712

5620 + 1342 1347 1351 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.3 4.8E-05

5630 1405 1406 1419 HOL 3 FLA N15E26 SF 2712

5640 1425 1428 1432 HOL 3 FLA N15E26 SF 2712
5640 + 1426 1430 1433 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.4 3.9E-05 2712

5650 + 1502 1507 1511 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B7.2 2.1E-04

5660 + 1557 1601 1605 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B5.2 1.6E-04

5670 1614 1621 1642 HOL 3 FLA N15E25 SF ERU 2712
5670 + 1629 1636 1639 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B7.0 2.3E-04 2712

5680 + 1652 1704 1705 HOL 3 FLA N16E24 SF ERU 2712
5680 + 1704 1710 1712 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C2.7 4.4E-04 2712

5690 1843 1857 1904 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.0 1.9E-04 2712
5690 1843 1844 1857 HOL 3 FLA N16E24 SF ERU 2712

5700 1938 1938 1941 HOL 4 FLA N15E22 SF ERU 2712

5710 2050 2054 2057 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.7 4.6E-05 [/quote]

Look at the GOES X-ray flux below.

Attachments
05-28-2018_AR2718 C flaring_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif
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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Here is the latest report from NOAA: AR2712 has now doubled in area as it approaches the center of the sun.

:Issued: 2018 May 29 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 149 Issued at 0030Z on 29 May 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 28 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2712 N15E18 176 0080 Csi 07 10 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
2710 N17W31 225
II. Regions Due to Return 29 May to 31 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

Attachments
solar image_05-29-2018_Beta AR2712.jpg
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Currently, there is a massive coronal hole at the equator of the sun. Whenever this happens, solar winds interfere with short wave radio and radio communications worldwide. Since huge Beta AR2712 is just above this coronal hole, there will be interaction between the two should a massive solar flare occur.

Below are two solar images taken from The Sun Now. The first solar image shows that the coronal hole has been blocked from our view by NOAA/NASA. I have seen this blocking done very frequently to know that it is not just some quirk or artifact. They are hiding sometime.

Notice that the date stamp on this image below is also blocked, but the photo taken in the purple spectrum is not blocked, so the time stamp will be almost identical. Both these pictures are from The Sun Now.

solar image_05-29-2018_blocking the massive coronal hole.jpg
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Today the equatorial coronal hole is not being blocked from our view.

Notice that this equatorial coronal hole looks like an animal.

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solar image_05-29-2018_Beta AR2712 near coronal hole.jpg
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

The latest from NOAA: AR2712 is still a Beta, but according to the GOES X-ray flux, the sun has started to flat-line.

05-31-2018_Typical Solar Minimum_Sun is now flat-lining_goes-xray-flux.gif
05-31-2018_Typical Solar Minimum_Sun is now flat-lining_goes-xray-flux.gif (11.8 KiB) Viewed 567 times

Two astronomers working with Belgium's Royal Observatory have observed a huge difference in AR2712.
One saw almost no spots, while the other observed about 30 sunspots. No doubt, one astronomer will be considered an outlier.

Date . . . . . . . . . . EISN std st str
2018 05 01 2018.330 00 0.0 40 42
2018 05 02 2018.333 00 0.0 34 37
2018 05 03 2018.336 00 0.0 42 45
2018 05 04 2018.338 13 2.8 31 46
2018 05 05 2018.341 15 1.9 39 43
2018 05 06 2018.344 16 2.3 40 47
2018 05 07 2018.347 16 2.2 46 52
2018 05 08 2018.349 20 5.7 38 49
2018 05 09 2018.352 22 4.2 40 47
2018 05 10 2018.355 12 1.9 37 46
2018 05 11 2018.358 12 1.8 37 45
2018 05 12 2018.360 13 2.3 33 37
2018 05 13 2018.363 12 1.8 21 30
2018 05 14 2018.366 00 0.0 37 40
2018 05 15 2018.368 00 0.0 32 43
2018 05 16 2018.371 00 0.0 35 36
2018 05 17 2018.374 00 0.0 40 41
2018 05 18 2018.377 00 0.0 38 39
2018 05 19 2018.379 00 0.0 30 34
2018 05 20 2018.382 00 0.0 37 40
2018 05 21 2018.385 12 1.8 34 44
2018 05 22 2018.388 13 1.8 37 45
2018 05 23 2018.390 27 4.7 29 37
2018 05 24 2018.393 36 6.3 31 39
2018 05 25 2018.396 32 5.5 32 37
2018 05 26 2018.399 28 3.3 34 42
2018 05 27 2018.401 27 6.9 30 36
2018 05 28 2018.404 20 2.9 32 37
2018 05 29 2018.407 25 2.8 26 31
2018 05 30 2018.410 15 14.5 02 02

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 05-30-2018_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 05-30-2018_EISNcurrent.png (45.75 KiB) Viewed 567 times

:Issued: 2018 May 30 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 150 Issued at 0030Z on 30 May 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2712 N16E05 176 0070 Csi 08 12 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
2710 N17W45 226
II. Regions Due to Return 30 May to 01 Jun
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

This in from NOAA: AR2712 is still active but the size of it has declined.

:Issued: 2018 May 31 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 151 Issued at 0030Z on 31 May 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2712 N16W09 177 0030 Cro 08 08 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
2710 N17W59 227
II. Regions Due to Return 31 May to 02 Jun
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

The sun ablaze:

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solar image_05-31-2018_AR2018, solar winds plus East Limb activity.jpg
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