As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

AR2699 seems to be decaying already according to Belgium's Royal Observatory:

COMMENT: Solar activity was low. There is one active region NOAA 2699 that
appeared in the eastern hemisphere and produced many B-class flares and one
C1.1 flare that peaked at 20:24 UT yesterday. Now, NOAA 2699 has alpha
magnetic field configuration and is not expected to produce significant
flares in the coming hours. Proton flux levels are at background values and
are expected to remain so. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
Solar wind speed is at 430 km/s now with interplanetary magnetic field
magnitude of 5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions reached unsettled levels (K = 3)
overnight due to the mild effect of the low latitude extension of the
northern polar coronal hole (speeds reaching only 450 km/s and
interplanetary magnetic field 9 nT). Quiet to unsettled conditions can be
expected in the next 48 h.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 015, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

The sun is reawakening perhaps momentarily.

Today Beta AR2699 persists per the Royal Observatory at Belgium:

COMMENT: Solar activity was low. NOAA 2699 has developed from alpha to beta
magnetic field configuration and produced several B-class flares. No
significant flares are expected in the coming hours.

Proton flux levels are at background values and are expected to remain so.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Solar wind speed was between 400-450 km/s with interplanetary magnetic
field magnitude ranged from 4 to 7 nT. Geomagnetic conditions have been
mostly quiet.

A low latitude extension of the northern polar coronal hole could still
affect the Earth in the next 24 hrs, unsettled geomagnetic conditions can
be expected then.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 017, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.

Will this be another September surprise, when we had several X flares,
the strongest of this cycle?

On February 2nd and 4th, there were fleeting sunspots (AR2697 and AR2698),
which still persist as alpha plages, but these plages have no sunspots and pose no threat.

Below is the EISN plot (text msg) from Belgium's consortium of international astronomers.
View the actual plot at http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

2018 02 01 2018.086 0 0.0 21 22
2018 02 02 2018.089 0 0.0 16 22 (most likely not a spotless day)
2018 02 03 2018.092 0 0.0 16 18
2018 02 04 2018.095 0 0.0 22 33 (most likely not a spotless day)
2018 02 05 2018.097 16 2.3 32 34
2018 02 06 2018.100 17 3.1 19 21
2018 02 07 2018.103 19 0.0 1 1

The Sun Now shows a huge active region, AR2699, which has grown dramatically.

solar image_02-07-2017_Beta AR2699 in Southern Hemisphere.jpg
solar image_02-07-2017_Beta AR2699 in Southern Hemisphere.jpg (15.91 KiB) Viewed 744 times

While NOAA reports the location, strength, and size of AR2699,
which is very impressive during this time of solar minimum,
the GOES plot shows a very active sun with multiple C and
B-class solar flares.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 38 Issued at 0030Z on 07 Feb 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 06 Feb
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 06/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2699 S08E51 168 0160 Dso 09 07 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 06/2400Z Feb
Nmbr Location Lo
2697 S09W51 270
2698 S03E17 202
II. Regions Due to Return 07 Feb to 09 Feb
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

Attachments
02-07-2018_Multiple C and B solar flares_AR2699_goes-xray-flux.gif
02-07-2018_Multiple C and B solar flares_AR2699_goes-xray-flux.gif (14.06 KiB) Viewed 744 times

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

The January 2018 monthly bulletin from Belgium is now available --

Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations
World Data Center supported by the ICSU - WDS 2018

Provisional international and normalized hemispheric daily sunspot numbers for January 2018
Computed at the Royal Observatory of Belgium using observations from an international network
with the Specola Solare Ticinese Locarno as reference station.

Here are some of their findings:
International Sunspot Numbers for January 2018
Monthly mean 6.7
Northern Hemisphere 1.5
Southern Hemisphere 5.2

Cf. http://www.sidc.be/sunspots/bulletins/m ... 201801.pdf

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

AR2699 is now a Beta-Gamma according to NOAA:

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 40 Issued at 0030Z on 09 Feb 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 08 Feb
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 08/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2699 S06E25 167 0200 Dai 09 12 Beta-Gamma
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 08/2400Z Feb
Nmbr Location Lo
2697 S09W79 271
2698 S03W13 205

Yesterday, February 7, 2018, AR2699 erupted in a strong C8.1 class solar flare. Spaceweather had these comments:

A pulse of extreme UV radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, browning out shortwave radio transmissions below 10 MHz over the South Atlantic ocean: map.

This class of explosion would be considered minor during more active phases of the solar cycle, but now on the eve of Solar Minimum it is a significant eruption. AR2699 is becoming larger and more unsettled as it turns toward Earth, so more flares are possible in the hours and days ahead.

cf: http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php ... &year=2018

Attachments
02-09-2018_3 days of Multiple B and C flares_C8.1 on 02-07_AR2699_goes-xray-flux.gif
02-09-2018_3 days of Multiple B and C flares_C8.1 on 02-07_AR2699_goes-xray-flux.gif (13.66 KiB) Viewed 727 times

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Today, Feb. 10, 2018 (UT), NOAA released this update on AR2699

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 41 Issued at 0030Z on 10 Feb 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 09 Feb
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 09/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2699 S07E13 166 0210 Dai 09 13 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 09/2400Z Feb
Nmbr Location Lo
2698 S03W28 207
II. Regions Due to Return 10 Feb to 12 Feb
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

Apparently, AR2699 has decayed a little, so the GOES plot is currently in the A range, and NOAA has decreased the chance of an M-Class solar flare. However, if we did have a solar flare tomorrow, it would be geoeffective, and could disturb our fragile power grid, which no one likes to mention as most of the cities in the USA are not prepared for such an event. North Korea would not need to send a missile, as a massive CME from the sun that is geoeffective could take down our power grids, our water distribution centers which are run by electricity, and our entire economy in minutes claiming the lives of millions over the next few weeks. Without water and power, we could not live very long. Where would we get our water and food? How could we heat our food and homes without electricity.

Thankfully, our Lord did not mention such an event in the Gospel accounts, so perhaps we are being spared such a horrific disaster, which would negatively affect all the economies of the world. Nevertheless, we must pray to be spared such a devastating solar event as the Carrington Event, which happened in 1859. This Carrington Event did cripple our economy, but it was limited to railroad and telegraph lines in those days. Today, such an event would kill many, and would also totally wipe out our economy.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Beta AR2699 is still unleashing powerful impulsive solar flares, and it is geoeffective.
According to NOAA, there is a 15 percent chance of an M flare today or Sunday.
cf. www.spaceweather.com

Below is the three day plot from GOES:

Attachments
02-11-2018_3 days of Multiple C and B solar flares_AR2699_goes-xray-flux.gif
02-11-2018_3 days of Multiple C and B solar flares_AR2699_goes-xray-flux.gif (13.31 KiB) Viewed 717 times

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Solar image showing Beta AR2699 in the center of the solar disc.

We have not had an active region this large since September 2018,
when that region suddenly erupted twice with an X-class flare. One was
an X9, the largest one in this cycle. In fact, it was the largest one in decades.

Attachments
solar image_02-11-2018_Beta AR2699_0315 UT.jpg
solar image_02-11-2018_Beta AR2699_0315 UT.jpg (15.97 KiB) Viewed 716 times

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