As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

[Maria]

Sorry to hear that. What type of heat do you have, gas or electric ? Electric heat bills are always worse anyway. This sounds like an extremely cold season for LA. If those slapdash contractors put in a fireplace for your home, did you think of getting additional heat by burning wood ?

Louvred windows are poor for cooler climates ? And what is the water vapor barrier ? Does that apply to carpets or hardwood floors or both ?

Louvred windows are poor in cooler climates. They leak. However, these louvred windows are okay in areas like San Diego. Double or triple paned windows are best in colder climates.

Yes, we had a fireplace, but it was really designed for special effects only as it burned artificial cement logs and was gas powered. It too did not work. There was a lot of smoke that filled the house especially with the high winds, so we rarely used it. It was also very dangerous as the gas pilot could be blown out in a downdraft of cold air. Thus, we disconnected the gas line.

[Maria]

Belgium's Comment from the Royal Observatory is posted below. AR2734 has decayed.
The mean EISN for March is approximately 3.2 for the entire month (31 days) providing that no more active regions appear.
The actual mean EISN for March through today, March 13, is 7.7 with 5 spotless days so far.

COMMENT: Solar activity was low with X-ray flux remaining below B level.
The last spot within Catania group 9 (NOAA region 2734) was disappearing as
the region is rotating further towards the West limb.
With a spotless disk, X-ray flux is expected to remain below C level.

No Earth directed CME's have been detected in coronagraph data.

The Solar proton flux levels were at background values and are expected to
remain so.

Solar wind quickly recovered from yesterdays CME passage with Solar wind
speed around 330-370 km/s throughout the period. Total magnetic field
decayed from near 7nT to around 4 nT currently and the magnetic field phi
angle settled again in the negative sector.

There is a slight possibility of some enhancements due to the March 9 CME
late today or early tomorrow but otherwise nominal solar wind conditions
are expected over the next 24 hours with later on March 14 an expected
onset of a high speed stream from the equatorial coronal hole that passed
central meridian late March 10.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (local K Dourbes 1-3 and
NOAA Kp 1-2) but could reach active conditions in the 24-48 hour time frame
due to the expected high speed stream.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 13 STATIONS.

[Maria]

One or possibly two active areas have appeared on the surface of the sun, so perhaps we are transitioning into the new Solar Cycle 25. One of these active areas is on the Western limb while the other has just appeared in the East.

Perhaps the February 2019 number of sunspots will be one of the lowest at 0.8 that we shall see in this current solar minimum.

However, it is still possible that many more months of low sunspot activity typical of a deep solar minimum will be seen, and that we have not yet reached the lowest point of this solar minimum. I can say this with some certainty because neither of these two new active areas show the reverse magnetic polarity of the next Solar Cycle 25 as they still have the [+/- magnetic polarity] indicative of Solar Cycle 24. The green or white spots are the positive magnetic polarity while the yellow or black spots are the negative magnetic polarity.

See today's image here at https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIBC.jpg

We must be patient as time will tell perhaps in the next six to nine months.

Today NASA posted a solar image from the past, dating back to 2011, when we were just transitioning from the previous solar cycle 23 to the newly rising solar maximum of solar cycle 24. I have every reason to hope that this is a static image, but if it is not, I have saved an image on my hard drive.

In this image dating back to 2011, you will notice the presence of four active regions, each of which has a different magnetic polarity which shows the transitioning nature as 2011 is entering into the new solar maximum of solar cycle 24.

I will present the magnetic polarity in brackets below starting from right to left.

list One active region [-/+] having the reverse polarity of old solar cycle 23 in the northern hemisphere at the Western Limb (to your right) is leaving the solar disc.

(2) Another active region [-/+] having reverse magnetic polarity of old solar cycle 23 in the southern hemisphere is approaching the Western Limb.

(3) The third active region [+/-] in the northern hemisphere is approaching the center of the solar disc. This has the New polarity of solar cycle 24.

(4) The fourth active region [perpendicular polarity with respect to the solar equator with negative magnetic polarity on top, and positive magnetic polarity at the bottom] in the northern hemisphere is trailing the third active region. This is a rare sight. As it moves across the solar disc, it may or may not move into a new position with the new polarity of solar cycle 24. On the other hand, it may decay.[/list]

[Maria]

This new active region has been rapidly decaying and now shows no evidence of any sunspots.

Here is the latest comment from the Royal Observatory in Belgium.

COMMENT: Solar activity was low with X-ray flux remaining below B level.
A new small bipolar region (Catania group 10) formed overnight but has by
now almost lost its spots already.
X-ray flux is expected to remain below C level.

Coronagraph images show a faint and slow Eastward CME in the morning of
March 12. It is also and more clearly visible in STEREO A COR2 images
moving there towards the West. This confirms the CME is heading towards a
direction in between Earth and STEREO A. It's speed is estimated not to
exceed background solar wind. While it is not excluded that a component of
the CME reaches Earth by late March 16 or March 17, its effects should be
minimal.
No other Earth directed CME's have been detected in coronagraph data.

The Solar proton flux levels were at background values and are expected to
remain so.

Solar wind conditions were close to nominal with solar wind speed in the
320-370 km/s range and total magnetic field around a nominal 5nT. Since
after 2:00UT magnetic field orientation suggests the passage of a magnetic
structure possibly associated to the March 9 CME.
Solar wind conditions are expected to become enhanced later today or
tomorrow due to the expected high speed stream from the equatorial coronal
hole that crossed central meridian late March 10. Towards March 17 there is
a small possibility of some slow CME transients assoicated to the March 12
CME.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 0-2)
and are expected to become unsettled with a possibility for active periods
under high speed stream influence.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 012, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.

[Maria]

A new active region appears to be forming in the northern hemisphere of the solar disc.
Unfortunately, I cannot post the images linked below as they are dynamic images (changing every 15 minutes).
I would have to save these images to my hard drive, but this unstable board cannot handle those images.

See: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIBC.jpg
This solar image shows a newly forming active region that is now approaching the center of the solar disc.

See: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux
The GOES X-ray flux above shows increased solar activity with a Class B 1.6 solar flare at 1351 UT (06:51 AM PDT) March 18, 2019.

Below is the comment by Belgium's Royal Observatory at 1230 UT, one hour prior to the B1.6 solar class flare at 1351 UT.

COMMENT: There are no active regions visible on the solar disk. No C-class
flares in past 24 h. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar
protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours.

The solar wind speed is at 350 km/s with interplanetary magnetic fields of
5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled (K = 1 - 3) in
the past 24 h. A relatively long magnetic field with low variability
together with low temperature could have marked the arrival yesterday of
the March 12 CME. The effect of a high speed stream from a small equatorial
coronal hole, with positive magnetic field polarity, may reach the Earth in
about 24 h and cause up to active geomagnetic storm conditions (K = 4).

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 013, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.

[Maria]

THE SOLAR WIND APPROACHES: Geomagnetic unrest is possible on Mar. 20th when a stream of solar wind is expected to buffet Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from a small hole in the sun's atmosphere. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras mixed with moonlight. Aurora Alerts: SMS text, email.

A CRACK IN EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD: During the late hours of March 16th, a crack opened in Earth's magnetic field--not a big one, but big enough to cause a G1-class geomagnetic storm. Markus Varik witnessed the resulting auroras over Tromsø, Norway:

[This is what is called a God shot. Absolutely stunning, isn't it?]

"It sure felt like the sky was falling on the ground," says Varik. "Just look at the town below the lights--like a mote of dust in space!"

This storm was not predicted, yet it comes as no surprise. The vernal equinox is only a few days away, and at this time of year cracks often form in Earth's magnetic field. Solar wind can pour through the gaps to fuel bright displays of Arctic lights.

This is called the the "Russell-McPherron effect," named after the researchers who first explained it. The cracks are opened by the solar wind itself. South-pointing magnetic fields inside the solar wind oppose Earth's north-pointing magnetic field. The two, N vs. S, partially cancel one another, weakening our planet's magnetic defenses. This cancellation can happen at any time of year, but it happens with greatest effect around the equinoxes. Indeed, a 75-year study shows that March is the most geomagnetically active month of the year, followed closely by September-October–a direct result of "equinox cracks."

Northern spring is just around the corner. Stay tuned for green. Aurora Alerts: SMS text, email.

http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php ... &year=2019

[Maria]

Another B class solar flare:

Maximum

2019-03-18 17:34:00 UTC

B1.3

NASA has not assigned a number for this new active region, which can be viewed at
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIBC.jpg (dynamic link refreshing every 15 minutes).
While it does not appear to be a very fast growing region at this time, it is actively B-flaring.