As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

[Maria]

The Royal Observatory at Belgium has issued its latest report:

COMMENT: The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours. The
X-ray flux was below C-level. The sunspot (Catania sunspot group 9, NOAA
Active region 2734) remained stable and continued to show mild activity
with few A and small B-class flares. Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels with a very small chance of C-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection has been observed. The greater than
10 MeV solar protons flux remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours
and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind parameters are currently slightly enhanced due to several
small patchy equatorial coronal holes (negative polarity) that have now
rotated into the west hemisphere. During the last 24-hour, the solar wind
speed was about 500 km/s at the beginning of the period and then decreased
to about 400 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field strength ranged
between 5 nT and 8 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between -4 nT and 6.5
nT. Another small patchy equatorial coronal hole (negative polarity) is
currently facing Earth. The slightly enhanced solar wind parameters are
expected to persist for more days, due to all those small patchy equatorial
coronal holes on the surface of the Sun.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettle over the past 24 hours,
with K-index (Dourbes) ranging from 1 and 3, and Kp (NOAA) ranging from 1
and 2. In response to the slightly enhanced interplanetary magnetic field
and possible prolonged period of southward directed Bz component, the
geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet to unsettle.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 017, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.

NOAA's flux chart shows that the solar activity remains in the lowest A basement.
See this website below:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

[Maria]

AR2734 now looks like a green turtle in the northern hemisphere of the solar disc.
Do go and see this photo: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIBC.jpg

And then, kindly visit https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux and look at the 6 hour plot.
Notice how the red line has flattened out at the bottom of the graph. This is the lowest I have seen it.
More importantly, this bottom hugging red line occurred in the presence of active region AR2734.

[Maria]

On March 8, 2019, we had a Class C solar flare, which during a solar minimum can have a devastating impact because our magnetic shield is down.

Here is the report at http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php ... &year=2019

EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE (UPDATED): This morning, March 8th at 0319 UT, the magnetic field of sunspot AR2734 became unstable and exploded. The result was a C1-class solar flare aimed directly at Earth. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the slowly unfolding explosion:

Play the movie again. In it you can see a shadowy shock wave billowing away from the blast site like a ripple in a giant pond. This is a sign that the blast may have hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space, possibly toward Earth. Radio emissions from the shock wave suggest an expansion velocity of more than 600 km/s (1.3 million mph).

UPDATE: SOHO coronagraphs confirm that a faint CME left the sun--but is it heading toward Earth? NOAA analysts are currently modeling the storm cloud's trajectory to see if there is an Earth-directed component. Check back later for their results.

AR2734 is decaying per Belgium's Royal Observatory:

COMMENT: The solar activity has been slightly more active over the past 24
hours. One C-class flare (C1.3) has been observed from Catania sunspot
group 9 (NOAA Active Region 2734) peaking at 03:19 UT on March 08. After
this flare, the X-ray flux returned below B-level, and the sunspot is now
decaying . The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a
very small chance of C-class flare.

The C-class flare was associated with a coronal dimming. Although no clear
halo Coronal Mass Ejection is been observed, we do predict Earth-directed
component of this relatively slow speed Coronal Mass Ejection. Further
information will come later as data will come. The greater than 10 MeV
solar protons flux remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is
expected to remain so.

The solar wind parameters continued to be slightly enhanced during the last
24-hour due to several small patchy equatorial coronal holes. The solar
wind speed re-increased and reached about 500 km/s around 15:00 UT on March

1. The total interplanetary magnetic field strength ranged between 5 nT
   and 8 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between -7.3 nT and 4.7 nT. The
   slightly enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to persistence for
   more days, due to all those small patchy equatorial coronal holes on the
   surface of the sun.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettle over the past 24 hours,
with K-index (Dourbes) and Kp (NOAA) ranging from 1 and 3. In response to
the slightly enhanced interplanetary magnetic field and possible prolonged
period of southward directed Bz component, the geomagnetic conditions are
expected to remain quiet to unsettle.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 011, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.

http://www.sidc.be/products/meu/

[Maria]

Below is the data from NOAA documenting the Class C1.3 flare we experienced on March 8, 2019 from Active Region 2734.

# Edited Events for 2019 Mar 08
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8550 + 0307 0319 0358 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C1.3 3.0E-03 2734
8550 + 0315 //// 0327 LEA C RSP 027-055 II/2 683 2734
8550 0330 //// 0356 LEA C RSP 025-180 VII/2 2734
8550 0330 //// 0332 PAL U RSP 025-180 III/1 2734
8550 0333 //// 0349 PAL U RSP 078-180 V/1 2734
8550 + 0334 0335 0336 LEA G RBR 245 140 2734
8550 B0338 U0339 0417 LEA 3 FLA N09W03 SF UMB 2734

Below is the data for March 9, 2019 showing a B1.1 class solar flare.

# Edited Events for 2019 Mar 09
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8560 0428 0432 0438 G14 5 XRA 1-8A B1.1 5.1E-05 2734

[Maria]

COMMENT: The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours. The
unique sunspot group on the disc (Catania sunspot group 9, NOAA Active
Region 2734) continued to decay and did not produce any flare. The X-ray
flux remained below B-level and the solar activity is expected to remain at
low levels.

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 on March
8 at 22:12 UT. Its projected principal components (in the plane of the sky)
was South-East. No source region was identified on the solar disc that
faces Earth, therefore, this CME is believed to be back side, and probably
associated with a filament as no active region is observed on STEREO/EUVI-A
images. The greater than 10 MeV solar protons flux remained at nominal
levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind parameters continued to be slightly enhanced during the last
24 hours due to several small patchy equatorial coronal holes. The solar
wind speed ranged between 400 km/s and 450 km/s. The total interplanetary
magnetic field strength remained below 7 nT. The Bz component fluctuated
between -4.5 nT and 4.7 nT. The slightly enhanced solar wind parameters are
expected to persistence for more days, due to all those small patchy
equatorial coronal holes on the surface of the sun.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettle over the past 24 hours,
with K-index (Dourbes) ranging from 0 and 3, and Kp (NOAA) ranging from 0
and 2. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mainly quiet, but in
response to the slightly enhanced interplanetary magnetic field and
possible prolonged period of southward directed Bz component, sort period
of unsettled conditions may also occur.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 011, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.

The latest NOAA x-ray flux showed solar activity in the basement levels of A0.
Go to https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux to view the latest graph.
There was a B6.1 at 2019-03-09 12:26:00 UTC

Currently AR2743 is decaying with no obvious solar activity with NOAA showing A0.0.

[Maria]

Current comment from the Royal Observatory of Belgium:

COMMENT: Solar activity was low with no flares reported and Catania group 9
(NOAA region 2734), the only region on disk, in decay.
Overall probability for flaring at C level remains low.

No Earth directed CME's have been detected in coronagraph data.

The Solar proton flux levels were at background values and are expected to
remain so.
Solar wind was at near nominal conditions until around 5:44 UT this morning
when speed jumped to around 400 km/s and magnetic field orientation changed
abruptly, both in terms of magnetic field phi angle and in terms of Bz
turning Southward (-8nT) marking the arrival of the March 8 CME. Since
then, total magnetic field reached a peak of 10nT and Bz saw a somewhat
prolonged period of negative Bz (around -8-9nT) rotating slowly back into
positive values currently. CME influences seem to be decaying but further
disturbances can still occur in its wake.
By the morning of March 14, we may see renewed solar wind enhancements from
the equatorial coronal hole that passed central meridian late March 10.

Geomagnetic conditions were first quiet and later unsettled with the CME
arrival (local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp reaching 3). With the main core of the
CME passed, geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet to
unsettled in its wake.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 011, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.

http://www.sidc.be/silso/home

The average EISN from March 1 to March 12 now stands at 8.3.

If AR2734 were to decay today, and we were to have another stretch of spotlessness through the end of March, then the EISN for March would be 3.2. Since AR2734 has had an abnormal magnetic polarity (perpendicular to the solar equator), and since the GOES flux chart has shown a flat red-line at the bottom of the graph, which does not fit the pattern of last month, I wonder if this indicates a very deep solar minimum.

It has been extremely cold here in Los Angeles. My power bill for Feb/Mar 2019 will be huge due to my Hawaiian home construction with no insulation in the walls and louver windows, etc. It was not built for cold weather as construction was done in the early 1960s when there was a solar peak and a drought. As a result, the contractors built thousands of homes that had little insulation in the walls, no water vapor barrier in the flooring, high uninsulated ceilings, and louver windows which would be great for warm weather like San Diego and Honolulu.

[Barbara]

Sorry to hear that. What type of heat do you have, gas or electric ? Electric heat bills are always worse anyway. This sounds like an extremely cold season for LA. If those slapdash contractors put in a fireplace for your home, did you think of getting additional heat by burning wood ?

Louvred windows are poor for cooler climates ? And what is the water vapor barrier ? Does that apply to carpets or hardwood floors or both ?