As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

[Maria]

There appears to be a new active region in the solar Eastern Southern hemisphere that might make an appearance in a day or so, or it may fade away as can be expected during this solar minimum.

Today's GOES X-ray Flux shows a disturbance that may herald this region's appearance. Belgium's Royal Observatory commentary follows.

COMMENT: The Sun is spotless and produced only a few A flares in the past
24 hours, from a new region that is approaching the East limb. The chance
for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR further decreased from about 430
to 370 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was oriented towards
the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 6 nT. Bz was never
below -5 nT. The solar wind is expected to stay at nominal levels in the
next days.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 2; NOAA Kp between 1
and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled conditions
(K Dourbes < 4) are expected on July 28, 29 and 30.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.

[Maria]

It is still too early today, Sunday, July 29 (0042 UT) to tell if the active region approaching the SE surface of the sun will have any sunspots per NOAA. The GOES-X-ray plot (see link below) already shows declining solar activity. Therefore, this active region may already be fading. Stay tuned for more developments.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

Update Saturday, 8:34 PM PST (0334 UT Sunday): the active region is now turning toward us and it appears to be composed of "white sunspots", but things could change.

View the picture at https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

Issued: 2018 Jul 29 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 210 Issued at 0030Z on 29 Jul 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 28 Jul
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z Jul
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 29 Jul to 31 Jul
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

[Maria]

Below is Belgium's Royal Observatory daily commentary. Note that the new region near the East limb continues to be made of white sunspots, which rarely materialize into an active region with sunspots. Thus, the Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) continues to be zero with the EISN for July reaching a record breaking low in this current solar minimum that hovers around zero.

See the current photos at The Sun Today: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

COMMENT: The Sun is spotless and produced only a few A flares in the past
24 hours, from a new region near the East limb. The chance for a C flare in
the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR further decreased from about 370
to 315 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was oriented towards
the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 3 and 5 nT. Bz was never
below -5 nT. The solar wind is expected to stay at nominal levels in the
next days.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA
Kp between 1 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to
unsettled conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on July 29, 30 and 31.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 20 STATIONS.

GOES x-ray flux continues to show very low solar activity levels:

[Maria]

These white sunspots are called faculae, and they will occasionally produce B flares.

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels. A B1 flare peaking at
21:48UT on 29 July had its source in the spotless faculae field near
S08E65. No coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal
levels.

Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

Solar wind speed gradually declined from about 330 to 275 km/s by 10:30UT,
then increased to values around 330 km/s (DSCOVR). Bz varied mostly between
-4 and +5 nT, being predominately negative during the first half of the
period. The interplanetary magnetic field was mostly directed towards the
Sun. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed, with unsettled
conditions recorded by Dourbes during the 18-21UT and 06-09UT intervals.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a chance on an
isolated unsettled episode.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 27 STATIONS.

[Maria]

Another spotless day -- another hyderflare.

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels. A small filament located at
N15E20 slowly erupted on 31 July between 04 and 07UT. No x-ray flaring or
obvious coronal dimming was associated with the event. No coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels.

Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

Solar wind speed varied between 300 and 340 km/s (DSCOVR). Bz was mostly
negative during the first half of the period, and positive during the
second half, varying between -6 and +5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic
field turned to a predominately away direction (positive sector) around
01UT. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed, with some
unsettled intervals recorded by Dourbes.

Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected.

Tomorrow, we can see the International Sunspot Number (ISN) results for July. I suspect that the ISN will be between 0 and 1, which will be the lowest ISN we have seen during this solar minimum as almost all the days of July have been spotless. Will this spotless trend continue, most likely yes. The question is: how long will these spotless days continue? While some astronomers at Belgium predict that July 2018 could be the lowest dip in this solar minimum with a rapid rise to another solar maximum, other astronomers are predicting that we could be in for a mini-ice age of 10, 20, or even 100 years.

[Maria]

[quote ="EISN from Belgium's Royal Observatory"]
2018 07 01 2018.497 0 0.0 48 50
2018 07 02 2018.500 0 0.0 52 54
2018 07 03 2018.503 0 0.0 51 54
2018 07 04 2018.505 0 0.0 46 48
2018 07 05 2018.508 0 0.0 42 43
2018 07 06 2018.511 0 0.0 47 49
2018 07 07 2018.514 0 0.0 46 47
2018 07 08 2018.516 0 0.0 45 46
2018 07 09 2018.519 0 0.0 50 52
2018 07 10 2018.522 0 0.0 40 42
2018 07 11 2018.525 0 0.0 47 50
2018 07 12 2018.527 0 0.0 45 54 - 9 outliers deleted
2018 07 13 2018.530 0 2.3 37 54 - 17 outliers deleted
2018 07 14 2018.533 0 0.0 32 45 - 13 outliers deleted
2018 07 15 2018.536 0 0.0 30 43 - 13 outliers deleted
2018 07 16 2018.538 0 0.0 40 44
2018 07 17 2018.541 0 0.0 42 45
2018 07 18 2018.544 0 0.0 37 40
2018 07 19 2018.547 0 0.0 42 43
2018 07 20 2018.549 0 0.0 40 43
2018 07 21 2018.552 0 1.8 23 38 -- 15 outliers deleted
2018 07 22 2018.555 0 0.0 36 38
2018 07 23 2018.558 0 0.0 45 47
2018 07 24 2018.560 0 0.0 42 44
2018 07 25 2018.563 0 0.0 42 44
2018 07 26 2018.566 0 0.0 45 47
2018 07 27 2018.568 0 0.0 48 50
2018 07 28 2018.571 0 0.0 40 42
2018 07 29 2018.574 0 0.0 34 36
2018 07 30 2018.577 0 0.0 38 41
2018 07 31 2018.579 0 0.0 29 31[/quote]

updated 0436 PM PDT

For the month of July 2018, the EISN shows zero sunspot numbers. When Belgium issues its revisions of the July 2018 EISN plot on August 1 around 1230 UT, the dates of July 13 and 21 will most likely show low sunspot numbers (₁₁). There might be additional days of low sunspot numbers for July 14 and 15 as those two days had 13 outliers deleted each day. Deletion of that many reports is significant and will change the results. [My comments are in italics.]

[Maria]

Belgium revised its ISN for July 2018. As expected, four days of sunspots were added with approximately 50 sunspots counted, for an average monthly mean of 50/31 = 1.6 for the July 2018 ISN.

July 13 and 21 have been given an approximate sunspot number of 13 for each day. July 14 and 15 each have an approximate ISN of 12. Therefore, the July 2018 ISN of 1.6 is the lowest International Sunspot Numbers for this current solar minimum. Spotlessness continues for the first day of August 2018 with no end in sight. However, as the sun turns, sunspots could suddenly arise only to fade away quickly as they did in July.

UPDATE at 1545 UT and at 1645 UT: There is now a tiny sunspot area in the South Eastern Hemisphere of the sun. Will it grow or fade away? To see enlarged photo, click the image at https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

UPDATE at 1623 UT, GOES X-Ray flux shows no unusual activity as it is in the A0 range, which is typical during solar minimums, so this sunspot area may fade quickly. See https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

Here is the revised plot. Note that August 1 EISN has a sunspot number of 12, but previously it was 13, and now it is 13 again.
Here are the figures from the text messages at 1941 UT and at 2023 UT:

at 1941 UT: 2018 08 01 2018.582 12 1.3 29 36 -- 7 outliers deleted with a standard deviation of 1.3
at 2023 UT: 2018 08 01 2018.582 13 1.7 31 37 -- 6 outliers deleted with a standard deviation of 1.7