As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

AR2703 has now decayed to an alpha.

Wow! That was quic burnout. Massive B and C flaring and then quiet.

This just in from NOAA. AR2702 may be returning from two weeks on the far side of the sun.
AR2702 did not last too long as it too decayed. Will it return? I would guess no.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 90 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Mar 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Mar
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2703 S08E60 192 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Mar
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 31 Mar to 02 Apr
Nmbr Lat Lo
2702 N19 128

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

solar image_03-31-2018_AR2703 flaring.jpg
solar image_03-31-2018_AR2703 flaring.jpg (152.88 KiB) Viewed 716 times

We are having another solar flare, which is approaching B-class in intensity. As I type this, the cursor has flattened at A8.8, but it has dropping to A7.5, and now it is at A6.4. This has not been an impulsive flare as it gradually ascends, only to descend, and then ascends again and falls again. The blue line is remaining flat, which indicates that this flare is not going anywhere at the moment.

Apparently, AR2703 is hanging on as an alpha.

AR2702, which may return is in the Northern latitude, N19. So far, there are no indications on the far side of the sun of any flare loops, which could indicate its return.

And here is another shot taken at 0741 UT. Look at the huge coronal holes at the polar regions of the sun.

solar image_03-31-2018_0741 UT_latest.jpg
solar image_03-31-2018_0741 UT_latest.jpg (139.08 KiB) Viewed 716 times

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Here is the latest EISN text message showing the Estimated International Sunspot
Numbers for March 2018.

For the last two days, with the advent of AR2703, international astronomers
associated with the Belgium Royal Observatory have listed about 12 sunspots.
AR2703 has been actively flaring in the A and B levels with an occasional C flare.

Text Message below updated at 3:52 PM PDT. My comments follow in italics.

Date . . . . . . . . . EISN std st str
2018 03 01 2018.163 7 6.5 23 23 - high standard dev. (6.5) with no outliers deleted. Belgium may change this figure.
2018 03 02 2018.166 0 3.4 12 18 - high standard dev. (3.4) with 6 outliers deleted. Belgium most likely will change this.
2018 03 03 2018.168 0 0.0 30 31
2018 03 04 2018.171 0 0.0 37 38
2018 03 05 2018.174 0 0.0 29 30
2018 03 06 2018.177 0 0.0 28 29
2018 03 07 2018.179 0 0.0 21 22
2018 03 08 2018.182 0 0.0 33 36
2018 03 09 2018.185 0 0.0 32 33
2018 03 10 2018.188 0 0.0 26 27
2018 03 11 2018.190 0 0.0 33 34
2018 03 12 2018.193 0 0.0 37 39
2018 03 13 2018.196 0 0.0 30 32
2018 03 14 2018.199 0 0.0 39 39
2018 03 15 2018.201 0 0.0 22 27 - 5 outliers deleted
2018 03 16 2018.204 0 0.0 33 34
2018 03 17 2018.207 7 6.2 14 18 - high standard deviation (6.2) with 4 outliers deleted. Belgium may change this figure.
2018 03 18 2018.210 0 4.4 16 27 - high standard deviation (4.4) with 9 outliers deleted. Belgium most likely will change this.
2018 03 19 2018.212 0 0.0 27 31
2018 03 20 2018.215 0 0.0 36 37
2018 03 21 2018.218 0 0.0 35 36
2018 03 22 2018.221 0 0.0 29 30
2018 03 23 2018.223 0 0.0 31 31
2018 03 24 2018.226 0 0.0 34 36
2018 03 25 2018.229 0 0.0 40 40
2018 03 26 2018.232 0 0.0 36 38
2018 03 27 2018.234 0 0.0 25 26
2018 03 28 2018.237 0 0.0 21 22
2018 03 29 2018.240 0 0.0 28 34 - 6 outliers deleted
2018 03 30 2018.242 12 2.2 23 33 - standard deviation of 2.2 with 10 outliers deleted. Belgium most likely will change this.
2018 03 31 2018.245 13 1.9 18 24 - standard deviation of 1.9 with 6 outliers deleted. Belgium may change this.

By the way, on March 15 and March 29, there were a high number of outliers deleted,
so, there is a small chance that Belgium might change these figures too.

The EISN approximates 2 for the month of March. However, Belgium might
raise that figure to 2.5 or so if they make changes in the daily EISN numbers provided.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Just in from NOAA.

Alpha AR2703 has increased a little. AR2702 might still appear, but there are no
loops of an approaching active region on the northeastern limb of the sun.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 91 Issued at 0030Z on 01 Apr 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 31 Mar
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 31/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2703 S08E47 193 0010 Axx 02 02 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 31/2400Z Mar
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 01 Apr to 03 Apr
Nmbr Lat Lo
2702 N19 128

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

AR2703 seems to be decaying as the GOES X-ray Flux is declining into the very low A levels. It is currently at A0.0

Most importantly, the blue line is in the basement (A0) levels.

NASA's Solar images, especially the HMI Continuum Flattened, show that AR2703 is a tiny sunspot area, and is now barely visible.

If decay continues, AR2703 will soon be an H-alpha plage. This fast decay of active regions and very low levels of solar activity as shown in the X-ray Flux is typical during a deep solar minimum, which we are now in. Since there are no loops of an approaching active region, AR2702 most likely will not make a reappearance. This is to be expected, as active sunspots will rarely reappear from their far transit of the sun during a solar minimum.

Attachments
04-01-2018_A0.0_AR2703 is decaying_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif
04-01-2018_A0.0_AR2703 is decaying_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (10.29 KiB) Viewed 692 times

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Barbara »

That purple image of the Sun is remarkable !

Maria, it's a help that you tell us which comments are yours and which are issued by Belgium. Thanks for mentioning that the italicized are your explanations so we know how to evaluate everything correctly.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Barbara wrote:

That purple image of the Sun is remarkable !

Maria, it's a help that you tell us which comments are yours and which are issued by Belgium. Thanks for mentioning that the italicized are your explanations so we know how to evaluate everything correctly.

Thanks, Barbara.

AR2703 is not dead yet. Below is a huge, and rather long-lived, B9 solar flare.

04-01-2018_AR2703_B9.0_1308UT_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif
04-01-2018_AR2703_B9.0_1308UT_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (11.01 KiB) Viewed 676 times

Here is the three day stretch. Notice all the solar flares unleashed from AR2703!

04-01-2018_Flares from AR2703_goes-xray-flux.gif
04-01-2018_Flares from AR2703_goes-xray-flux.gif (14.48 KiB) Viewed 662 times

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