As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Here is an interesting diagram. Solar Cycle 24, which ended on July 17, 2014, was one of the deepest solar minimums in 100 years. Notice that Solar Cycle 24 can be said to be part of the 100 year lowest solar maximum cycles as shown during the solar minimums of 1824, 1878, 1915, and 2008. Will Solar Cycle 25 be lower than Solar Cycle 24? Only time will tell.

Solar Cycle 25_International SP maximums vs solar minimum spotless days.png
Solar Cycle 25_International SP maximums vs solar minimum spotless days.png (182.61 KiB) Viewed 1196 times

Notice the 1878 to 1915 period of time in which we had a succession of very deep solar minimums.

By this graph from SILSO in Belgium, Al Gore is once again proven wrong. We have just come out of a warming solar maximum in 2006 with hot summers during the solar maximum of 2001. Solar Cycle 24 did not deliver much of solar impact. It was very mild in comparison to Solar Cycle 19 in in 1958 and 1959, where I vividly remember being sunburned at Lake Tahoe and at other swimming holes in Nevada while I was in my pre-teen years. The elevation of +5000 feet did not help because higher elevations receive higher solar radiations. In fact, SC 19 has been the highest in 200 years.

The data is not in for the Solar Cycles during the 1700s. SILSO must do some "corrections" before that data can be presented. Some scientists have said that we could be entering an even lower solar minimum during this Solar Cycle 25, per the very low 300 year cycle. From 1646 to 1715, we had the Minimum Maunder, a mini-ice age where it was so cold that people could ice skate on the River Thames in London. Could Solar Cycle 25 be a non-event, one that plunges us into another Minimum Maunder? Or will Solar Cycle 26 be the one where the sun seems to go dormant? Again only time will tell.

There are several articles that discuss this matter more in detail. Even Scientific America had their say.
See: http://www.inquisitr.com/2242086/mini-i ... ists-warn/

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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We had a strong solar flare from a new sunspot #2628, rated a beta, during this solar minimum.
From: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar ... nt-reports

Edited Events for 2017 Jan 21

#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5150 + 0210 0217 0221 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B5.4 2.2E-04 2628

5160 0224 0227 0237 LEA 3 FLA N12E53 SF DSD 2628
5160 + 0228 0231 0236 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B7.1 2.3E-04 2628

5170 0238 0239 0240 LEA 3 FLA N12E53 SF DSD 2628

5180 + 0300 0305 0307 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B7.6 1.8E-04 2628

5190 0402 0405 0407 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.6 5.8E-05 2628
5190 0403 0408 0541 LEA 3 FLA N12E53 SF PRB 2628

5200 0543 0545 0552 LEA 3 FLA N12E46 SF 2628

5210 + 0623 0629 0636 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C1.2 6.5E-04 2628
5210 0627 0628 0631 LEA 3 FLA N11E46 SF 2628

5220 + 0702 0705 0709 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B8.4 2.3E-04 2628

5230 + 0714 0726 0729 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C9.3 2.7E-03 2628

Attachments
01-21-2017_C9.3_Sunspot 2628_Impulsive Solar Flare_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif
01-21-2017_C9.3_Sunspot 2628_Impulsive Solar Flare_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (12.21 KiB) Viewed 1184 times

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Sunspot 2628 is now a Beta-Gamma and is growing.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 22 Issued at 0030Z on 22 Jan 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 21 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2625 N01W48 255 0030 Hax 02 03 Alpha
2626 N08W37 244 0040 Hsx 03 03 Alpha
2627 N06E15 192 0080 Dai 06 13 Beta
2628 N12E36 171 0120 Dai 09 08 Beta-Gamma

http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/ ... 122SRS.txt

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

New Sunspot 2629 on the far left side of the sun has made its announcerment with three minor B solar flares.
The image below is dynamic with new pictures being shown every few hours. Therefore, Sunspot 2629 will be shown rotating across the solar landscape until it disappears to the far side of the sun awaiting another 14 days to return.

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... 2_1600.jpg

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar ... nt-reports

Edited Events for 2017 Jan 24

#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5410 + 0623 0742 0820 SVI G RNS 245 200

5420 0704 //// 1245 SVI C RSP 045-171 CTM/1

5370 + 0707 //// 0707 SVI C RSP 025-171 III/1

5380 0740 //// 1050 LEA C RSP 046-172 CTM/1

5390 + 0951 //// 0951 SVI C RSP 025-080 III/1

5400 1036 //// 1043 SVI C RSP 030-171 III/1

5430 1150 //// 1151 SVI C RSP 025-171 III/2

5440 1603 1608 1611 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.9 6.1E-05 2629

5450 + 1747 1755 1801 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B5.2 2.7E-04 2629

5460 1839 1845 1856 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.6 2.2E-04 2629

5470 B1931 1947 2002 HOL 4 FLA N14E62 SF DSD

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

More alterations in the Daily Sunspot Plot.

Below is the Daily Sunspot plot from Belgium during the month of January, 2017:

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 01-14-2017.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 01-14-2017.png (43.33 KiB) Viewed 1157 times

and in the next post, there is the revised month of January as seen on Feb. 1, 2017.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Revised plot of January 2017

Notice how two spotless days, January 2 and 3, at the beginning of January have vanished.
The different plottings received from the reporting stations are indicated by shading.

January 2: plottings ranging between 0 to 12 have been replaced by a 14
January 3: plottings ranging between 0 to 3 have been replaced by a 12

January 12 was originally plotted around 10 with some variation, but now it is registered at 12.

January 14 was originally plotted around 19 with some variation, but now it is registered as 32.

All these changes will most likely give a higher number of sunspots for the month of January, 2017.
I had calculated the average sunspot numbers around 25 based on the information provided by January 31 and by Belgium's own blue line plot.

FUDGING? ? ? It seems like bad statistics and bad math

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 02-01-2017.png
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Here is the latest smoothed monthly sunspot plot for January 2017:

sunspot numbers-smoothed-2017-01.png
sunspot numbers-smoothed-2017-01.png (145.27 KiB) Viewed 1156 times

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