As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Non-political secular news and anything else (within the boundaries of Christian morality and good taste) that is not on-topic in any other section. Any politically charged material must be posted in the private Political and Social Issues forum; please PM admin for access. All Forum Rules apply. No polemics. No heated discussions. No name-calling.
Post Reply
User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Although the sun is spotless with no dark cores typical of sunspots, it is not dead.

Look at the picture below. It has massive numbers of magnetic filaments, which
reveal the churning nature of our seething star.
While some filaments near the rim of the disc have the appearance of spirochetes or
even a scorpion, others near the center of the sun resemble flower pedals.
If these filaments snap, they could unleash an earth-directed CME.

Attachments
solar image_12-16-2017_0755UT_massive array of magnetic filaments.jpg
solar image_12-16-2017_0755UT_massive array of magnetic filaments.jpg (134.93 KiB) Viewed 1112 times

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

So far, we have had about 13 spotless days this month. With another 13 days left
in December, today being December 18, it is possible that we could have
a grant total of 26 spotless days, which would be another record in this solar
minimum. As of today, the average EISN for December is approximately 2.3.

However, there is always the probability of short-lived sunspots unexpectedly
appearing at any time such as one-time Beta AR 2691, which was quickly
reduced to an H-alpha plage per NOAA.

IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 17/2400Z Dec
Nmbr Location Lo
2691 S03W52 222

Currently, there is massive radio interference due to solar winds.
This comment in from Belgium's Royal Observatory:

INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2017 Dec 17 12:30UTC

The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare
in the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass
Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels.

DSCOVR observed a disturbance in the solar wind around 21h UT on December

  1. Since then, solar wind speed has increased to current values around 600
    km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was mainly directed away from
    the Sun and its magnitude has increased from about 4 nT before 21h UT to
    values up to about 16 nT. Bz was variable and was consistently below -5 nT
    from about 3:30 until 6:00 UT. The observed enhancement in solar wind
    conditions is probably due to the arrival of an expected high speed stream
    of a recurrent positive equatorial coronal hole.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 4; NOAA
Kp between 1 and 5) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to moderate
storm conditions (K Dourbes = 4 to 6) are possible on December 17 and 18.
Active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on December
19, with a chance for minor geomagnetic storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5).

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

According to Eastern Standard Time, today is December 20, 2017.

NOAA has just reported as of Zulu time (Greenwich) that there are no sunspots and that there have been no sunspots since Dec. 13.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 354 Issued at 0030Z on 20 Dec 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 19 Dec
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 19/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None

However, http://www.spaceweather.com is announcing that the sunspot number for Dec. 20 is currently at 11, while the consortium of astronomers associated with the Royal Observatory in Belgium are posting that EISN for Dec. 19 and 20 is approximately 7.

In fact, the Royal Observatory of Belgium issued this comment for December 19, 2017:

COMMENT: Very quiet Solar conditions were reported.
A small unipolar sunspot (numbered Catania group 67) has rotated on disk in
the North-East and seems to be in a growing phase. It is the only region on
disk

Click the link below to view the recent picture from NASA showing the new active region on the far left side of the solar disc.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... 4_0171.jpg

Look at the current EISN plot below. It has been a bumpy ride with 13 spotless days interrupted by three appearances of sunspots: AR2690, AR2691, and a newly unnamed active region, AR2692?, which has apparently caused two B class solar flares on Dec. 19.

Attachments
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 12-20-2017_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 12-20-2017_EISNcurrent.png (42 KiB) Viewed 1102 times

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

According to NOAA, the once tiny active region AR2692 has greatly increased in size and in strength. It is now a Beta.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 355 Issued at 0030Z on 21 Dec 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 20 Dec
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2692 N16E45 086 0070 Cao 04 06 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z Dec
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 21 Dec to 23 Dec
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

Below is the list of recent B-Class solar flares emitted by the new AR2692:

:Date: 2017 12 20

Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov

#

Missing data: ////

Updated every 5 minutes.

Edited Events for 2017 Dec 20

#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2180 + 0756 0800 0806 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.6 6.6E-05 2692

2190 + 1814 1822 1827 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.0 1.5E-04 2692

2200 + 2049 2053 2101 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.2 7.0E-05 2692

2210 2328 2331 2334 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.0 2.1E-05

On December 20, at 1200 UT, the Royal Observatory of Belgium reported:

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low with only a couple of low level B
class flares from the only region on disk Catania sunspotgroup 67.

The region is still fairly simple but has shown quite some growth this
morning.

Flaring is expected to remain below C level.

A filament eruption is seen off the North Eastern hemisphere around 3:00UT.

Coronagraph data are not yet available to assess the extent of the likely
associated CME.

Proton flux values are at background levels and expected to remain so.

Solar wind has recovered to background conditions with Solar wind speed
dropping to 450 km/s by around 2:00 UT this morning and remained stable
since. Total magnetic field has been fluctuating around 3-4nT with a
variable Bz.

A possible arrival of the December 15 CME is no longer expected. A
transition into a negative sector is expected within the next 24 hours with
then also the influence of the negative polarity equatorial coronal hole
possibly setting in. However, the leading part of the coronal hole which
passed the central meridian on December 18 is not likely to bring any
strong effects. A more significant high speed stream influence is only
expected 3-4 days from now from the trailing part of the coronal hole which
only now starts passing the central meridian.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both local K Dourbes and
NOAA Kp 1-3).

Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over the next days.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 011, BASED ON 06 STATIONS.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

From Belgium:

COMMENT: A couple of low level B flares were recorded from Catania group 67
(NOAA region 2692) which has become a bipolar region and has shown clear
growth and development of its magnetic complexity.

Chances for possible C flaring have hence increased but are still low.
No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data.
Proton flux values are at background levels and are expected to remain so.

Solar wind was nominal with solar wind speed decreasing from near 450 km/s
to around 400 km/s and total magnetic field in the 3-4nT range.

Solar wind conditions may increase slightly. However, the leading part of
the previously elongated coronal hole, that now seems to have become
detached is not expected to result in any significant high speed stream
effects. The more significant high speed stream influence from the trailing
part of that previously elongated coronal hole is expected to increase
Solar wind conditions from around noon December 23
.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (both local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 0-2).
They are expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels but increasing
towards noon December 23 when active periods and possibly minor storms
become possible under the influence of the anticipated high speed stream.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 020, BASED ON 07 STATIONS.

EISN/Silso plot shows a sunspot number of 22. This is the highest Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) for December 2017.
The average EISN for December is 4.

AR692 continues to increase in size with increased B-flarings. Notice that the trend since December 19 is increased solar activity.

Attachments
12-21-2017_Beta AR2692 has increased with multiple B flarings_goes-xray-flux.gif
12-21-2017_Beta AR2692 has increased with multiple B flarings_goes-xray-flux.gif (12.97 KiB) Viewed 1096 times

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

NOAA's plot of solar X-rays is showing increased solar activity (see red line) with levels rising from the A levels to consistent B levels.
See current plot at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

Here is the most recent plot, which I have saved:

12-22-2017_Beta AR2692_Multiple B flaring_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif
12-22-2017_Beta AR2692_Multiple B flaring_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (11.07 KiB) Viewed 1091 times

The Royal Observatory of Belgium EISN|SILSO plot shows that the sunspot number has increased to 30.
See current plot at http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

New Beta AR2692 is again increasing in size and in area. See NASA: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

Could we suddenly have an M or even X flare as we did in September 2017? Stay tuned as AR2692 revolves (1) to the center of the sun where it can be geo-centered, and then (2) to the Eastern limb of the solar disc where any significant solar flare or CME could be geo-directed as it was on Sept. 10, 2017.

From NOAA:

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 356 Issued at 0030Z on 22 Dec 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 21 Dec
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2692 N18E30 088 0070 Dao 08 08 Beta

Blasts from the Recent Past:

MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: On Sept. 6th at 1202 UT, sunspot AR2673 unleashed a major X9.3-class solar flare--the strongest solar flare in more than a decade. X-rays and UV radiation from the blast ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a strong shortwave radio blackout over Europe, Africa and the Atlantic Ocean:

http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php ... &year=2017

MAJOR SOLAR FLARE AND RADIATION STORM: Departing sunspot AR2673 erupted again on Sept.10th (1606 UT), producing a major X8-class solar flare. Protons accelerated toward Earth by the explosion are swarming around our planet now, causing a moderately strong solar radiation storm.

http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php ... &year=2017

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Here is the latest report from NOAA about our new greatly increasing AR2692.
It is still a Beta.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 357 Issued at 0030Z on 23 Dec 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 22 Dec
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2692 N18E16 089 0070 Dao 08 08 Beta

It is interesting how AR2692 is growing in multiples of 7, except for Dec. 22.
What will Dec. 23 bring?

EISN for December from SILSO at Belgium

18 December : 0
19 December : 7
20 December : 14
21 December : 21
22 December : 24

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

Post Reply